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Cyprus crestCyprus
v
Latvia crestLatvia

UEFA Nations League | Mon 05 Oct, 17:00

Cyprus v Latvia Stats

Data last updated: Tue 27 Oct 2026, 14:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cyprus face Latvia in UEFA Nations League on Mon 05 Oct, 17:00. Cyprus have stronger recent form and a better attack, averaging 1.5 goals per game in their last six matches. A goalless draw away to Latvia steadied them before an impressive 2-0 victory over Armenia moved them onto four points.

BT4Y best bet

Match Result - Cyprus

  • At 8/13, Match Result - Cyprus implies roughly 62%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 64%.
  • Across that sequence they have averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
  • Cyprus have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 1 for Latvia.
  • Cyprus have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per match, which helps the Match Result - Cyprus angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Cyprus sit 2 in the table, while Latvia sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 64% for Match Result - Cyprus sits against roughly 62% implied by the current price. Cyprus have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 1 for Latvia. Across that sequence they have averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.

Model chance vs price64% model chance against roughly 62% implied
Neutral
Cyprus have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points.Visible data support
Positive
Cyprus have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Across that sequence they have averaged 1.5 goals scored.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Cyprus Win is the preferred angle because across that sequence they have averaged that scoring level scored and 0.83 conceded per game. Cyprus have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 1 for Latvia. Latvia’s Attack Remains the Major Concern

Main risk

Latvia’s Attack Remains the Major Concern.

Key Data Signals

Match Result - Cyprus evidence

Across that sequence they have averaged that scoring level scored and 0.83 conceded per game.

Cyprus have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 1 for Latvia.

Cyprus have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per match, which helps the Cyprus Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Cyprus sit 2 in the table, while Latvia sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Match Result - Cyprus notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Cyprus1
    Avg goals scored
    Latvia0.33
    Cyprus0.67
    Avg goals conceded
    Latvia1.33
    Cyprus33%
    BTTS rate
    Latvia33%
    Cyprus33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Latvia33%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 57% · edge +8.9 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
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    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 60%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 44%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsCyprus v Latvia predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickCyprus to WinBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 64% · edge +0.3 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Cyprus Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 44%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Cyprus to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Cyprus

    WDL
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    02 Oct 2026H Armenia2-0
    28 Sep 2026A Latvia0-0
    25 Sep 2026A Montenegro1-2

    Latvia

    LDL
    Last 50W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 2L
    02 Oct 2026H Montenegro1-2
    28 Sep 2026H Cyprus0-0
    25 Sep 2026A Armenia0-2
    Market aligned with main pickCyprus to WinBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 64% · edge +0.3 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    Cyprus Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    33%Cyprus Over 2.5
    33%Latvia Over 2.5
    1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Cyprus sit at 33% and Latvia sit at 33% with the H2H average at 1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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