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Cyprus crestCyprus
v
Latvia crestLatvia

UEFA Nations League | Mon 05 Oct, 17:00

Cyprus v Latvia Stats

Data last updated: Sun 04 Oct 2026, 08:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Latvia and Cyprus meet in Riga with both sides seeking to respond after opening defeats in the UEFA Nations League. Cyprus have demonstrated stronger attacking potential, scoring seven goals in their last five matches, but have also shown defensive vulnerabilities by conceding six. Latvia, struggling to find the net recently, face pressure to improve their attacking output at home. The tactical battle is likely to revolve around Cyprus' ability to convert possession and chances into goals against a Latvian defence that has been breached regularly, while Latvia must overcome their scoring drought to challenge Cyprus' lead in the group.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Both Teams to Score

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 50%, above the 44% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Cyprus scored 7 goals in last 5 matches but conceded 6, showing attacking strength and defensive fragility.
  • Latvia have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches, highlighting recent attacking struggles.
  • Previous meetings between these teams have been tight, with the last ending 1-1, supporting a balanced contest.
  • Both teams have shown tendencies to concede, making both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
Price warning

Both Teams to Score is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 50% while the model sits nearer 44% (-5.7 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Under 2.5 Goals shows a +7.2 pts edge at 1.7.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model identifies a 44.3% chance for both teams to score, reflecting Cyprus' consistent attacking output and Latvia's defensive vulnerabilities despite their scoring struggles. The football context supports this, as Cyprus have scored regularly while Latvia's home urgency and potential lineup changes could break their recent scoring drought. However, the current of 1.9 imply a 52.6% chance, making the price short and the pick a football-led selection rather than a clear value bet. Reduced staking or waiting for drift is advised to improve value.

Cyprus recent scoring7 goals in last 5 matches
Strong positive
Latvia scoring strugglesFailed to score in 3 of last 4 matches
Neutral
Defensive vulnerabilityBoth teams conceded regularly
Positive
Price vs model chance44.3% model chance vs 50% implied (-5.7 pts)
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams to score is a sensible pick given Cyprus' attacking threat and Latvia's defensive lapses, combined with Latvia's home imperative to find the net. The data shows Cyprus create and concede chances regularly, while Latvia's recent matches have been low-scoring but with defensive gaps. This balance suggests goals at both ends are likely in a tight contest.

Main risk

Latvia have struggled to score recently but face a more manageable Cypriot defence at home.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“Cyprus' attacking consistency paired with Latvia's home urgency creates a realistic scenario for both teams to find the net, despite Latvia's recent scoring difficulties.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Cyprus scored 7 goals in last 5 matches but conceded 6, showing attacking strength and defensive fragility.

Latvia have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches, highlighting recent attacking struggles.

Previous meetings between these teams have been tight, with the last ending 1-1, supporting a balanced contest.

Both teams have shown tendencies to concede, making both teams scoring a plausible outcome.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have a 33% rate of games finishing over 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency towards lower-scoring games.
  • Their head-to-head average goals stand at 1, reflecting tight encounters.
  • This trend suggests a controlled tempo with limited goal volume, consistent with a balanced BTTS scenario rather than a high-scoring affair.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cyprus1
Avg goals scored
Latvia0.33
Cyprus0.67
Avg goals conceded
Latvia1.33
Cyprus33%
BTTS rate
Latvia33%
Cyprus33%
Over 2.5 goals
Latvia33%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 50% · edge -5.7 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Both teams have conceded regularly, with Cyprus allowing six goals in their last five matches and Latvia's defensive frailty evident in recent defeats. Latvia's scoring drought tempers the BTTS likelihood, but Cyprus' attacking options and Latvia's home pressure support a scenario where both sides score, aligning with the BTTS Yes selection.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsCyprus v Latvia predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 50% · edge -5.7 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Cyprus to WinBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Cyprus Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Latvia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Latvia to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBetUK guide price · model 24%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The 44.3% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (-5.7 pts). Cyprus show a 33% BTTS rate and Latvia show a 33% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: BTTS Yes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cyprus

WDL
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
02 Oct 2026H Armenia2-0
28 Sep 2026A Latvia0-0
25 Sep 2026A Montenegro1-2

Latvia

LDL
Last 50W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 2L
02 Oct 2026H Montenegro1-2
28 Sep 2026H Cyprus0-0
25 Sep 2026A Armenia0-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 88% · edge -1.7 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Load more odds for this section
Cyprus to WinBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Cyprus Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Latvia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Latvia to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBetUK guide price · model 24%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Recent form shows Cyprus scoring more frequently with 4 points and 1 goal per game average, while Latvia have struggled offensively, earning 1 point and scoring 0.33 goals per game. Both teams have conceded goals regularly, supporting the likelihood of both teams scoring in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Cyprus Over 2.5
33%Latvia Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have a 33% rate of games finishing over 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency towards lower-scoring games. Their head-to-head average goals stand at 1, reflecting tight encounters. This trend suggests a controlled tempo with limited goal volume, consistent with a balanced BTTS scenario rather than a high-scoring affair.

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