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UEFA Nations League | Mon 05 Oct, 19:45

Ukraine v Hungary Stats

Data last updated: Sun 04 Oct 2026, 08:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hungary hosts Ukraine in this UEFA Nations League Group B2 opener, with both teams navigating key absences in attack and recent tactical shifts. Hungary, unbeaten in four matches and boasting a solid defensive record with multiple clean sheets, face a Ukrainian side still adapting under new manager Andrea Maldera. Ukraine have struggled to score more than two goals in recent games and have lost two of their last three away fixtures. Hungary’s missing forwards and Ukraine’s modest attacking output set the stage for a cautious, low-scoring encounter with tactical discipline and defensive solidity likely to dominate.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Hungary have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches, showing defensive resilience.
  • Ukraine have failed to score more than two goals in their last 7 matches, indicating capped attacking potential.
  • Key forwards Ronald Sallai and Barnabas Varga are absent for Hungary, limiting their scoring options.
  • Ukraine’s new management and missing Artem Dovbyk and Ruslan Malinovskyi reduce offensive explosiveness.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 66% chance to Under 2.5 Goals, reflecting both teams' recent low-scoring trends and personnel challenges. Hungary’s strong defensive form and Ukraine’s inability to score more than two goals in seven consecutive matches underpin this probability. The price at 1.75 offers positive value with an 8.9% edge. While both sides have attacking threats, their current tactical setups and missing key forwards suggest limited goal volume, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection for this fixture.

Hungary Defensive Form3 clean sheets in last 4 matches
Strong positive
Ukraine Scoring CeilingNo more than 2 goals in last 7 matches
Strong positive
Missing Key ForwardsSallai and Varga absent for Hungary; Dovbyk and Malinovskyi absent for Ukraine
Positive
Model Probability vs Implied Odds66% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+7.2 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a tactically sound pick given Hungary’s defensive solidity and Ukraine’s limited attacking output under new management. Both teams face key absences upfront, which reduces scoring potential and supports a cautious game plan. The recent form data confirms a trend towards low-scoring matches, making this selection a logical choice for the Nations League opener.

Main risk

They have still found the net regularly, but their recent results point more towards steady scoring than explosive attacking output.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and statistical rationale

“Hungary’s defensive discipline combined with Ukraine’s capped offensive ceiling under new leadership makes Under 2.5 Goals a compelling tactical and statistical call for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Hungary have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches, showing defensive resilience.

Ukraine have failed to score more than two goals in their last 7 matches, indicating capped attacking potential.

Key forwards Ronald Sallai and Barnabas Varga are absent for Hungary, limiting their scoring options.

Ukraine’s new management and missing Artem Dovbyk and Ruslan Malinovskyi reduce offensive explosiveness.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last meeting between Hungary and Ukraine featured an average of 1 goal, illustrating a historically low-scoring fixture.
  • Recent trends over the last seven matches for Ukraine show no games exceeding two goals, while Hungary has maintained clean sheets in most recent outings.
  • These trends suggest a controlled tempo and defensive focus, limiting the likelihood of an open, high-scoring game.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ukraine0.33
Avg goals scored
Hungary0.33
Ukraine1
Avg goals conceded
Hungary0.33
Ukraine0%
BTTS rate
Hungary0%
Ukraine33%
Over 2.5 goals
Hungary0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 59% · edge +7.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 32%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have shown restrained scoring recently, with Ukraine failing to score more than two goals in seven matches and Hungary maintaining multiple clean sheets. Both Teams To Score is less likely given Hungary’s defensive strength and Ukraine’s modest away scoring record. The Under 3.5 Goals route offers a wider margin but the Under 2.5 Goals aligns better with the low-scoring trend and personnel constraints.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Ukraine v Hungaryfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionHungary to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 33% · edge +11.1 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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Hungary Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Ukraine Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Ukraine to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+7.2 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 33% for Ukraine and 0% for Hungary, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Both teams have steady scoring records and key offensive absences limiting high-scoring outcomes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ukraine

LDW
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
02 Oct 2026H Northern Ireland0-3
28 Sep 2026A Georgia0-0
25 Sep 2026A Hungary1-0

Hungary

WDL
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
02 Oct 2026H Georgia1-0
28 Sep 2026A Northern Ireland0-0
25 Sep 2026H Ukraine0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 65% · edge +7.9 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Hungary to WinBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3
Check odds @ 3
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Hungary Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Ukraine Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Ukraine to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Hungary’s recent form includes three wins and a draw in their last four matches, with strong defensive performances yielding multiple clean sheets. Ukraine’s form is less consistent, with one win and one loss under new management and two defeats in their last three away games. Both teams’ recent matches have tended towards low goal totals, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals selection as a reflection of current momentum and tactical caution.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Ukraine Over 2.5
0%Hungary Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
The last meeting between Hungary and Ukraine featured an average of 1 goal, illustrating a historically low-scoring fixture. Recent trends over the last seven matches for Ukraine show no games exceeding two goals, while Hungary has maintained clean sheets in most recent outings. These trends suggest a controlled tempo and defensive focus, limiting the likelihood of an open, high-scoring game.

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