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Ukraine crestUkraine
v
Hungary crestHungary

UEFA Nations League | Mon 05 Oct, 19:45

Ukraine v Hungary Stats

Data last updated: Mon 26 Oct 2026, 22:02 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ukraine face Hungary in UEFA Nations League on Mon 05 Oct, 19:45. Hungary travel to face Ukraine in Trnava on Monday with Group B2 finely balanced and both sides level on points after three Nations League matches. Both Ukraine and Hungary have won one of their last three matches, indicating balanced recent form.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2

  • At 4/6, Under 2 implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • Hungary's superior recent momentum and stronger away defence support a narrow 1-0 away win, while Ukraine's attacking struggles and key suspension limit their scoring.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 33% for Ukraine and 0% for Hungary, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Ukraine are carrying more of the scoring load at 0.33 goals per match, with Hungary at 0.33.
  • BTTS rates of 0% for Ukraine and 0% for Hungary show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for Under 2 sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 33% for Ukraine and 0% for Hungary, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Hungary's superior recent momentum and stronger away defence support a narrow 1-0 away win, while Ukraine's attacking struggles and key suspension limit their scoring.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 60% implied
Positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 33% for Ukraine and 0%.Visible data support
Positive
Ukraine are carrying more of the scoring load at 0.33.Visible data support
Positive
Hungary's superior recent momentum and stronger away defence support.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because under 2.5 Goals matches the recent low scoring of both teams, with Ukraine failing to score in two matches and Hungary scoring only once in three. Ukraine are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Hungary at 0.33. Andrea Maldera’s side followed that result with a goalless draw against Georgia, but Friday’s 3-0 defeat to Northern Ireland represented a significant setback.

Main risk

Andrea Maldera’s side followed that result with a goalless draw against Georgia, but Friday’s 3-0 defeat to Northern Ireland represented a significant setback.

Key Data Signals

Under 2 evidence

Under 2.5 Goals matches the recent low scoring of both teams, with Ukraine failing to score in two.

Ukraine are carrying more of the scoring load at 0.33 goals per match, with Hungary at 0.33.

BTTS rates of 0% for Ukraine and 0% for Hungary show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2 notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ukraine0.33
Avg goals scored
Hungary0.33
Ukraine1
Avg goals conceded
Hungary0.33
Ukraine0%
BTTS rate
Hungary0%
Ukraine33%
Over 2.5 goals
Hungary0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 62% · edge +4.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 32%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 33% for Ukraine and 0% for Hungary, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Ukraine v Hungaryfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionHungary to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 35% · edge +9.7 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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Hungary Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Ukraine Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Ukraine to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Hungary to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ukraine

LDW
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
02 Oct 2026H Northern Ireland0-3
28 Sep 2026A Georgia0-0
25 Sep 2026A Hungary1-0

Hungary

WDL
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
02 Oct 2026H Georgia1-0
28 Sep 2026A Northern Ireland0-0
25 Sep 2026H Ukraine0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 67% · edge +6.6 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Hungary to WinBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Hungary Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Ukraine Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Ukraine to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Ukraine Over 2.5
0%Hungary Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Ukraine sit at 33% and Hungary sit at 0% with the H2H average at 1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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