Football Stats Hub

Northern Ireland crestNorthern Ireland
v
Georgia crestGeorgia

UEFA Nations League | Mon 05 Oct, 19:45

Northern Ireland v Georgia Stats

Data last updated: Sun 04 Oct 2026, 08:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Northern Ireland and Georgia meet in a UEFA Nations League Group B2 opener where both sides aim to establish early momentum. Georgia arrives unbeaten in four matches this year, showing improved defensive organization under Willy Sagnol, while Northern Ireland struggles with away defensive stability, failing to keep a clean sheet in nine consecutive road internationals. Both teams have produced low scoring outputs recently, suggesting a tactical, tightly contested match with limited goal-scoring opportunities. The fixture promises a cautious battle as both teams seek to avoid early setbacks in the group stage.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Georgia is unbeaten in four matches in 2026, showing defensive improvement under manager Willy Sagnol.
  • Northern Ireland has failed to keep a clean sheet in nine consecutive away internationals, highlighting defensive vulnerability.
  • Both teams have low recent scoring rates, combining for only five goals in their last ten matches.
  • Northern Ireland’s forward Jamie Donley shows high shot volume but low accuracy, indicating limited conversion threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, reflecting both teams' recent low scoring trends and defensive solidity. Georgia's improved defensive record and Northern Ireland's limited attacking output on the road support a low-goal outcome. Despite Mikautadze's individual threat, the overall match tempo and tactical caution suggest a controlled game with few goals. No price warnings apply, and the data quality is solid for both teams, reinforcing in this selection.

Recent low scoringBoth teams average below one goal per match in last five games
Strong positive
Defensive organizationGeorgia unbeaten in 4 matches with 2 clean sheets
Positive
Away defensive strugglesNorthern Ireland no clean sheets in 9 away matches
Neutral
Individual attacking threatMikautadze’s 9 goals in last 10 internationals
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This Nations League opener is likely to be a tactical, low-scoring affair as both teams prioritize defensive stability. Georgia’s recent unbeaten run and Northern Ireland’s away defensive struggles suggest a cautious contest. The limited attacking output from both sides supports an Under 2.5 Goals outcome, reflecting a match where goals will be hard to come by.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and defensive analysis

“Northern Ireland’s defensive vulnerabilities on the road combined with Georgia’s improved organization set the stage for a tight, low-scoring match where tactical discipline will be key.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Georgia is unbeaten in four matches in 2026, showing defensive improvement under manager Willy Sagnol.

Northern Ireland has failed to keep a clean sheet in nine consecutive away internationals, highlighting defensive vulnerability.

Both teams have low recent scoring rates, combining for only five goals in their last ten matches.

Northern Ireland’s forward Jamie Donley shows high shot volume but low accuracy, indicating limited conversion threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The single head-to-head meeting between these teams averaged only 1 goal, consistent with recent trends.
  • Over the last five matches, both teams show low Over 2.5 Goals rates, indicating a pattern of tight, low-tempo games with limited scoring opportunities, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals outlook.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Northern Ireland1.33
Avg goals scored
Georgia0
Northern Ireland0
Avg goals conceded
Georgia0.67
Northern Ireland0%
BTTS rate
Georgia0%
Northern Ireland33%
Over 2.5 goals
Georgia0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 65% · edge +0.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have averaged less than one goal per match recently, with Georgia scoring three goals in five matches and Northern Ireland two in five. Neither side has recorded BTTS in recent fixtures, pointing to a controlled game with limited goal-scoring chances and a low probability of both teams scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionNorthern Ireland Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Northern Ireland to WinBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Georgia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Georgia to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 65.4% implied by the current price (+0.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 33% for Northern Ireland and 0% for Georgia, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Furthermore, in key international and club fixtures noted for Northern Ireland's attacking plans, Donley accumulated five shots across three appearances.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsNorthern Ireland v Georgia predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Northern Ireland

WDW
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
02 Oct 2026A Ukraine3-0
28 Sep 2026H Hungary0-0
25 Sep 2026A Georgia1-0

Georgia

LDL
Last 50W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 2L
02 Oct 2026A Hungary0-1
28 Sep 2026H Ukraine0-0
25 Sep 2026H Northern Ireland0-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 74% · edge +12.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Northern Ireland Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Northern Ireland to WinBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Georgia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Georgia to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%
3
Check odds @ 3
Georgia’s unbeaten run in 2026 with two clean sheets contrasts with Northern Ireland’s ongoing away defensive struggles. Both teams have low over 2.5 goals rates (0% for Georgia, 33% for Northern Ireland), reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring match shaped by defensive solidity and cautious tactics.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Northern Ireland Over 2.5
0%Georgia Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
The single head-to-head meeting between these teams averaged only 1 goal, consistent with recent trends. Over the last five matches, both teams show low Over 2.5 Goals rates, indicating a pattern of tight, low-tempo games with limited scoring opportunities, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals outlook.

Loading deeper match data…