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Northern Ireland crestNorthern Ireland
v
Georgia crestGeorgia

UEFA Nations League | Mon 05 Oct, 19:45

Northern Ireland v Georgia Stats

Data last updated: Tue 27 Oct 2026, 13:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Northern Ireland face Georgia in UEFA Nations League on Mon 05 Oct, 19:45. Northern Ireland vs Georgia: Green and White Army can tighten grip on Group B2.

BT4Y best bet

Northern Ireland to win

  • At 7/5, Northern Ireland to win implies roughly 42%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 57%.
  • Three games have produced no goals, while Northern Ireland have conceded none.
  • Northern Ireland have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 1 for Georgia.
  • Northern Ireland have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Northern Ireland to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Northern Ireland sit 1 in the table, while Georgia sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 57% for Northern Ireland to win sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price. Northern Ireland have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 1 for Georgia. Three games have produced no goals, while Northern Ireland have conceded none.

Model chance vs price57% model chance against roughly 42% implied
Strong positive
Northern Ireland have the stronger recent points return, taking 7.Visible data support
Positive
Northern Ireland have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Three games have produced no goals, while Northern Ireland.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Northern Ireland Win is the preferred angle because three games have produced no goals, while Northern Ireland have conceded none. Northern Ireland have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 1 for Georgia. Svanadze’s first match delivered Georgia’s only point of the campaign, but Friday’s defeat in Hungary left them needing a significant improvement.

Main risk

Svanadze’s first match delivered Georgia’s only point of the campaign, but Friday’s defeat in Hungary left them needing a significant improvement.

Key Data Signals

Northern Ireland to win evidence

Three games have produced no goals, while Northern Ireland have conceded none.

Northern Ireland have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 1 for Georgia.

Northern Ireland have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Northern Ireland Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Northern Ireland sit 1 in the table, while Georgia sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Northern Ireland to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Northern Ireland1.33
    Avg goals scored
    Georgia0
    Northern Ireland0
    Avg goals conceded
    Georgia0.67
    Northern Ireland0%
    BTTS rate
    Georgia0%
    Northern Ireland33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Georgia0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 60% · edge +8.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 32%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNorthern Ireland to WinBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
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    Northern Ireland Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 66%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 54%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 32%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Northern Ireland to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Northern Ireland

    WDW
    Last 52W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 0L
    02 Oct 2026A Ukraine3-0
    28 Sep 2026H Hungary0-0
    25 Sep 2026A Georgia1-0

    Georgia

    LDL
    Last 50W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 2L
    02 Oct 2026A Hungary0-1
    28 Sep 2026H Ukraine0-0
    25 Sep 2026H Northern Ireland0-1
    Market aligned with main pickNorthern Ireland to WinBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
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    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Northern Ireland Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 66%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    33%Northern Ireland Over 2.5
    0%Georgia Over 2.5
    1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Northern Ireland sit at 33% and Georgia sit at 0% with the H2H average at 1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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