Football Stats Hub

Italy crestItaly
v
Türkiye crestTürkiye

UEFA Nations League | Mon 05 Oct, 19:45

Italy v Türkiye Stats

Data last updated: Sun 04 Oct 2026, 08:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Italy and Türkiye face off in a crucial UEFA Nations League Group 1 clash, both seeking to bounce back after opening defeats. Italy's attack showed promise with 21 shots and 1.7 expected goals against Belgium despite failing to score, while Türkiye's offense has been prolific in recent competitive matches, often producing high-scoring games. Defensive absences for Türkiye, including suspended goalkeeper Ugurcan Cakir, add to the likelihood of an open game. Both teams' need for points and attacking intent set the stage for a potentially goal-rich encounter in Bursa.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 68%, above the 57% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Italy generated 21 shots and 1.7 xG against Belgium despite a 2-0 loss.
  • Türkiye scored 3+ goals in 7 of their last 8 competitive matches.
  • Key defensive absences weaken Türkiye’s backline, increasing goal chances.
  • Moise Kean has scored in 7 of his last 8 starts for Italy.
Price warning

Over 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 68% while the model sits nearer 57% (-11.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Türkiye Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 3.8.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model sees a 56.5% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, closely aligned with the implied market probability of 57.1%, indicating a fair price but slightly short. Italy's high shot volume and expected goals contrast with Türkiye's recent high-scoring matches and defensive vulnerabilities, especially with key absences. The tactical setup suggests an open game with both teams pushing for a win, increasing goal opportunities. However, the slightly short price advises cautious staking rather than aggressive bets.

Italy's attacking volume21 shots and 1.7 xG vs Belgium
Strong positive
Türkiye's high scoring frequency7 of 8 recent matches with 3+ goals
Strong positive
Key defensive absences for TürkiyeSuspended goalkeeper and injured midfielders
Positive
Price sensitivity56.5% model chance vs 67.6% implied (-11.1 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This fixture promises an open and attacking contest as both Italy and Türkiye seek to recover from early setbacks. Italy’s sustained chance creation and Türkiye’s recent goal-scoring form, combined with defensive absences, suggest a match likely to produce multiple goals. The Over 2.5 Goals bet aligns well with the tactical and statistical context, offering a solid betting angle for this Nations League encounter.

Main risk

The exact score is fragile but plausible given both teams’ offensive patterns and defensive changes.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“Italy’s high shot volume and Türkiye’s defensive reshuffle create a fertile ground for goals, making Over 2.5 a compelling selection despite the slightly short price.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Türkiye scored 3+ goals in 7 of their last 8 competitive matches.

Key defensive absences weaken Türkiye’s backline, increasing goal chances.

Moise Kean has scored in 7 of his last 8 starts for Italy.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last four meetings between Italy and Türkiye averaged 3.25 goals per game, indicating a history of open, high-scoring encounters.
  • Recent Nations League and qualifier matches for both teams also show frequent Over 2.5 outcomes.
  • This trend, combined with tactical openness and defensive absences, suggests a continuation of goal-rich matches in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Italy1.67
Avg goals scored
Türkiye0.33
Italy1.33
Avg goals conceded
Türkiye2.67
Italy67%
BTTS rate
Türkiye33%
Italy33%
Over 2.5 goals
Türkiye67%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 68% · edge -11.1 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have shown strong attacking tendencies with Italy scoring in all recent Nations League matches and Türkiye frequently involved in high-scoring games. Defensive absences for Türkiye increase the likelihood of both teams scoring, supporting the BTTS angle. The tactical emphasis on front-foot play and transition threats further enhances goal-scoring opportunities for both sides.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League hubfull betting preview for Italy v Türkiyecorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 68% · edge -11.1 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Italy to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Türkiye Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 41%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Italy Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Türkiye to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
The 56.5% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 67.6% implied by the current price (-11.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 33% for Italy and 67% for Türkiye, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Both teams have recent matches with multiple goals, supporting Over 2.5 Goals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Italy

DWL
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
02 Oct 2026A France1-1
28 Sep 2026A Türkiye4-1
25 Sep 2026H Belgium0-2

Türkiye

LLL
Last 50W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 3L
02 Oct 2026A Belgium0-3
28 Sep 2026H Italy1-4
25 Sep 2026H France0-1
Best odds for this sectionItaly to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 70% · edge +3.6 pts
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Load more odds for this section
Türkiye Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 41%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Italy Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Türkiye to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 20%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Italy’s recent form shows an average of 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game, with a 33% Over 2.5 Goals rate, reflecting moderate goal output. Türkiye’s form is more volatile, scoring only 0.33 goals on average but with a 67% Over 2.5 rate, indicating occasional high-scoring matches. Both teams’ recent performances suggest a potential for goals, especially given the tactical need to respond after opening defeats.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Italy Over 2.5
67%Türkiye Over 2.5
3.25H2H avg goals
The last four meetings between Italy and Türkiye averaged 3.25 goals per game, indicating a history of open, high-scoring encounters. Recent Nations League and qualifier matches for both teams also show frequent Over 2.5 outcomes. This trend, combined with tactical openness and defensive absences, suggests a continuation of goal-rich matches in this fixture.

Loading deeper match data…