Football Stats Hub

Llaneros crestLlaneros
v
America de Cali crestAmerica de Cali

Primera A | Mon 05 Oct, 02:15

Llaneros v America de Cali Stats

Data last updated: Sun 04 Oct 2026, 08:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Primera A clash features America de Cali, the league leaders with 24 points, visiting Llaneros, who sit mid-table with 14 points. America de Cali have been defensively solid, conceding just 0.8 goals per game, while Llaneros have struggled at the back, allowing 1.8 goals on average. America de Cali's attacking threat is led by Y. Ramos, who consistently create and convert chances. Llaneros rely heavily on K. Caicedo for offensive impetus but face a tough defensive test. The match presents a clear tactical contrast between America de Cali's disciplined defense and Llaneros' more open style, setting the stage for a competitive encounter with America de Cali favored to prevail.

BT4Y best bet

America de Cali to Win

  • America de Cali leads the league with 24 points, showing strong form and defensive solidity.
  • Llaneros concede 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities against a potent attack.
  • Guzmán of America de Cali averages 0.68 goals and 1.09 shots on target per 90 minutes, a key scoring threat.
  • Caicedo averages 4.29 shots and shots on target per 90 minutes, highlighting his attacking role.
  • Recent form shows America de Cali with 8 points and a solid defensive record, boosting in their win potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors America de Cali to win with a 67% chance, reflecting their superior league position, defensive strength, and attacking efficiency. America de Cali's low goals conceded (0.8 per game) contrasts with Llaneros' higher concession rate (1.8), suggesting defensive control. Key attackers like Y. Ramos provide consistent goal threat, supported by strong shot metrics. The of 20.5% indicates the offer good value for this pick. Data quality is solid for both teams, enhancing in the model's assessment.

Model Win Probability67%
Strong positive
Defensive RecordAmerica de Cali concedes 0.8 goals/game vs Llaneros 1.8
Strong positive
Key Player ThreatY. Guzmán averages 0.68 goals/90 and 1.09 SOT/90
Strong positive
Value Edge61.5% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Data QualityComprehensive data for both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

America de Cali's tactical discipline and superior defensive record make them the clear favorite to win this match. Their ability to limit opponents' chances combined with the attacking prowess of Guzmán and Ramos provides a strong foundation for victory. Llaneros' defensive struggles and reliance on Caicedo's individual efforts make it difficult for them to secure points against the league leaders.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“America de Cali's balance of defensive solidity and attacking efficiency positions them well to control this match and secure the win, especially given Llaneros' defensive vulnerabilities.”

Key Data Signals

America de Cali to Win evidence

America de Cali leads the league with 24 points, showing strong form and defensive solidity.

Llaneros concede 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities against a potent attack.

Guzmán of America de Cali averages 0.68 goals and 1.09 shots on target per 90 minutes, a key scoring threat.

Caicedo averages 4.29 shots and shots on target per 90 minutes, highlighting his attacking role.

What To Watch In The Data

America de Cali to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Llaneros have an 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, while America de Cali's matches reach this threshold 40% of the time.
  • The average goals per game in their head-to-head is 2.6, suggesting a moderately open game with potential for multiple goals, influenced by Llaneros' attacking openness and America de Cali's defensive control.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Llaneros1.4
Avg goals scored
America de Cali1.4
Llaneros1.8
Avg goals conceded
America de Cali0.8
Llaneros80%
BTTS rate
America de Cali40%
Llaneros80%
Over 2.5 goals
America de Cali40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Goal trends suggest a moderate scoring environment with an average of 2.6 goals in recent head-to-head matches. Llaneros have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate and 80% BTTS rate, indicating open games, while America de Cali's lower rates reflect more controlled matches. This contrast suggests potential for goals but also defensive discipline from America de Cali.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAmerica de Cali to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
America de Cali Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The 61.5% for America de Cali to Win sits against roughly 46.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). America de Cali have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 3 for Llaneros.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Llaneros

LWLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
27 Sep 2026A Cucuta1-2
21 Sep 2026H Atletico Nacional2-0
12 Sep 2026A Internacional de Bogota2-3
08 Sep 2026H Deportes Tolima1-2
30 Aug 2026A Independiente Medellin1-2

America de Cali

WDLWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
24 Sep 2026H Águilas Doradas1-0
21 Sep 2026A Deportes Tolima1-1
15 Sep 2026H Deportivo Pasto0-1
03 Sep 2026H Alianza Valledupar3-0
29 Aug 2026A Jaguares2-2
Market aligned with main pickAmerica de Cali to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
America de Cali Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
America de Cali's recent form shows 8 points gained with a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.8 goals per game, while Llaneros have 3 points and concede 1.8 goals per game. This contrast in form and defensive stability favors America de Cali's chances to control the match and secure a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Llaneros Over 2.5
40%America de Cali Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Llaneros have an 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, while America de Cali's matches reach this threshold 40% of the time. The average goals per game in their head-to-head is 2.6, suggesting a moderately open game with potential for multiple goals, influenced by Llaneros' attacking openness and America de Cali's defensive control.

Loading deeper match data…