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Levski Sofia crestLevski Sofia
v
AEK Athens FC crestAEK Athens FC

UEFA Champions League | Tue 18 Aug, 20:00

Levski Sofia v AEK Athens FC Stats

Data last updated: Sun 04 Oct 2026, 12:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Levski Sofia face AEK Athens FC in UEFA Champions League on Tue 18 Aug, 20:00. Levski Sofia have conceded just 0.5 goals per match in their last six fixtures, including back-to-back 1-0 wins over Kairat Almaty.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2

  • At 1.62, Under 2 implies roughly 62%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • Across their last six matches, including friendlies, AEK have averaged 2.5 goals scored and every game has gone over 2.5 total goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for Under 2 sits against roughly 62% implied by the current price. Across their last six matches, including friendlies, AEK have averaged 2.5 goals scored and every game has gone over 2.5 total goals.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 62% implied
Neutral
Across their last six matches, including friendlies, AEK have.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +4.3 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because aEK Athens lack competitive sharpness, having played mostly friendlies, making a low-scoring, tightly controlled match the likely outcome. The caution is obvious: five of those six fixtures were friendlies.

Main risk

The caution is obvious: five of those six fixtures were friendlies.

Key Data Signals

Under 2 evidence

AEK Athens lack competitive sharpness, having played mostly friendlies, making a low-scoring, tightly controlled match the likely outcome.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2 notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Levski Sofia

WWDWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 0L
11 Aug 2026A Kairat Almaty1-0
04 Aug 2026H Kairat Almaty1-0
29 Jul 2026A Universitatea Craiova2-2
22 Jul 2026H Universitatea Craiova1-0
14 Jul 2026H Borac Banja Luka4-0

AEK Athens FC

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for AEK Athens FC yet.

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 65% · edge -2.4 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Levski Sofia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Levski Sofia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
AEK Athens FC to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
AEK Athens FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Champions League fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Levski Sofia v AEK Athens FCcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Levski Sofia1.8
Avg goals scored
AEK Athens FC-
Levski Sofia0.4
Avg goals conceded
AEK Athens FC-
Levski Sofia20%
BTTS rate
AEK Athens FC-
Levski Sofia40%
Over 2.5 goals
AEK Athens FC-
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 62% · edge +4.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Levski Sofia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Levski Sofia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
AEK Athens FC to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
AEK Athens FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 8.5 Corners is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Levski Sofia Over 2.5
-AEK Athens FC Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Across their last six matches, including friendlies, AEK have averaged 2.5 goals scored and every game has gone over 2.5 total goals.

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