Football Stats Hub

Toulouse crestToulouse
v
Lyon crestLyon

Ligue 1 | Sun 10 May, 20:00

Toulouse v Lyon Stats

Data last updated: Fri 19 Jun 2026, 15:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Toulouse face Lyon in Ligue 1 on Sun 10 May, 20:00. Lyon arrive with massive momentum following four consecutive league wins. While Lyon are scoring freely, their away form remains slightly unstable with only one win in six.

BT4Y best bet

Lyon Draw No Bet

  • At 2.08, Toulouse Win implies roughly 48%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 76%.
  • Lyon have scored 11 goals in four games, and while Toulouse struggle to score at home, their transitional threat suggests an open contest.
  • Lyon have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 4 for Toulouse.
  • Lyon have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Toulouse Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Toulouse sit 10 in the table, while Lyon sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 76% for Toulouse Win sits against roughly 48% implied by the current price. Lyon have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 4 for Toulouse. Lyon have scored that scoring level in four games, and while Toulouse struggle to score at home, their transitional threat suggests an open contest.

Model chance vs price76% model chance against roughly 48% implied
Strong positive
Lyon have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points.Visible data support
Positive
Lyon have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Lyon have scored 11 goals in four games.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Toulouse Win is the preferred angle because lyon have scored that scoring level in four games, and while Toulouse struggle to score at home, their transitional threat suggests an open contest. Lyon have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 4 for Toulouse. The earlier draw against Monaco already hinted that Toulouse were becoming harder to beat again, but the Strasbourg performance carried more emotion and more resilience.

Main risk

The earlier draw against Monaco already hinted that Toulouse were becoming harder to beat again, but the Strasbourg performance carried more emotion and more resilience.

Key Data Signals

Toulouse Win evidence

Lyon have scored 11 goals in four games, and while Toulouse struggle to score at home, their transitional.

Lyon have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 4 for Toulouse.

Lyon have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Toulouse Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Toulouse sit 10 in the table, while Lyon sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Toulouse Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Toulouse1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Lyon2.2
    Toulouse2.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Lyon1
    Toulouse80%
    BTTS rate
    Lyon60%
    Toulouse100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Lyon60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 59% · edge +17.2 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Ligue 1 fixtures and predictionsToulouse v Lyon predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickToulouse to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 24% · edge +2.6 pts
    4.1
    Check odds @ 4.1
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Toulouse Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.72
    Check odds @ 1.72
    Toulouse to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Toulouse2.8
    Avg corners for
    Lyon5.8
    Toulouse9
    Avg total corners
    Lyon11.8
    Toulouse2
    Avg yellow cards
    Lyon1.2
    Toulouse10.6
    Avg shots
    Lyon11.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 54% · edge +11.3 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Toulouse

    WDLLL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    03 May 2026A Strasbourg2-1
    25 Apr 2026H Monaco2-2
    17 Apr 2026A Lens2-3
    12 Apr 2026H Lille0-4
    03 Apr 2026A Paris Saint Germain1-3

    Lyon

    WWWWD
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    03 May 2026H Rennes4-2
    25 Apr 2026H Auxerre3-2
    19 Apr 2026A Paris Saint Germain2-1
    12 Apr 2026H Lorient2-0
    05 Apr 2026A Angers0-0
    Market aligned with main pickToulouse to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 24% · edge +2.6 pts
    4.1
    Check odds @ 4.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Toulouse Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.72
    Check odds @ 1.72
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Toulouse wins
    2Draws
    7Lyon wins
    05 Oct 2025Lyon v Toulouse1-2
    18 Jan 2025Lyon v Toulouse0-0
    29 Sep 2024Toulouse v Lyon1-2
    15 Mar 2024Toulouse v Lyon2-3
    10 Dec 2023Lyon v Toulouse3-0
    14 Apr 2023Toulouse v Lyon1-2
    Market aligned with main pickToulouse to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 24% · edge +2.6 pts
    4.1
    Check odds @ 4.1
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Toulouse to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Ligue 1

    Toulouse33
    Played
    Lyon34
    Toulouse1.4
    Avg goals for
    Lyon1.6
    Toulouse1.4
    Avg goals against
    Lyon1.2
    Toulouse9
    Clean sheets
    Lyon15
    Market aligned with main pickToulouse to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 24% · edge +2.6 pts
    4.1
    Check odds @ 4.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Toulouse Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.72
    Check odds @ 1.72
    Season data supports Toulouse to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    4Lyon60341861013
    10Toulouse4433128131
    Toulouse sit in position 10, while Lyon sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Toulouse Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Toulouse Over 2.5
    60%Lyon Over 2.5
    3.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Toulouse sit at 100% and Lyon sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Toulouse v Lyon prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

    More stats pages

    Browse football stats pages

    Open the main stats hub for the latest fixture dashboards.

    Competition and hubs

    Ligue 1 hubLigue 1 fixtures and predictionsToulouse v Lyon predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboard

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre