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Toulouse crestToulouse
v
Lyon crestLyon

Ligue 1 | Sat 22 Aug, 19:45

Toulouse v Lyon Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 07:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Toulouse face Lyon in Ligue 1 on Sat 22 Aug, 19:45. Lyon's competitive rhythm from Champions League qualifiers adds to the likelihood of an open, goal-filled match despite potential rotation and squad changes. Toulouse won both meetings last season after going 18 consecutive matches without beating Lyon. The transition has not been seamless in pre-season.

BT4Y match pick

, yet the visitors already have match rhythm that Toulouse cannot replicate through friendlies

  • At 4/5, , yet the visitors already have match rhythm that Toulouse cannot replicate through friendlies implies roughly 56%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 55%.
  • Over 2.5 Goals is supported by a strong scoring trend in six of the last seven meetings and Toulouse's defensive weaknesses last season.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 55% for , yet the visitors already have match rhythm that Toulouse cannot replicate through friendlies sits against roughly 56% implied by the current price. Over 2.5 Goals is supported by a strong scoring trend in six of the last seven meetings and Toulouse's defensive weaknesses last season.

Model chance vs price55% model chance against roughly 56% implied
Neutral
Over 2.5 Goals is supported by a strong scoring.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -0.8 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because over 2.5 Goals is supported by a strong scoring trend in six of the last seven meetings and Toulouse's defensive weaknesses last season. Toulouse finally broke the sequence, but they now face a Lyon side already playing competitive football and trying to erase a poor finish away from home.

Main risk

Toulouse finally broke the sequence, but they now face a Lyon side already playing competitive football and trying to erase a poor finish away from home.

Key Data Signals

, yet the visitors already have match rhythm that Toulouse cannot replicate through friendlies evidence

Over 2.5 Goals is supported by a strong scoring trend in six of the last seven meetings.

What To Watch In The Data

, yet the visitors already have match rhythm that Toulouse cannot replicate through friendlies notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Toulouse-
Avg goals scored
Lyon-
Toulouse-
Avg goals conceded
Lyon-
Toulouse-
BTTS rate
Lyon-
Toulouse-
Over 2.5 goals
Lyon-
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 52% · edge +2.4 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Ligue 1 fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Toulouse v Lyonplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 52% · edge +2.4 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Lyon to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Toulouse Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Lyon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Toulouse to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 Goals is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Toulouse

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Toulouse yet.

Lyon

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Lyon yet.

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 69% · edge +3.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Lyon to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Toulouse Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Lyon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Toulouse to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Toulouse wins
2Draws
6Lyon wins
10 May 2026Toulouse v Lyon2-1
05 Oct 2025Lyon v Toulouse1-2
18 Jan 2025Lyon v Toulouse0-0
29 Sep 2024Toulouse v Lyon1-2
15 Mar 2024Toulouse v Lyon2-3
10 Dec 2023Lyon v Toulouse3-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 52% · edge +2.4 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Lyon to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Toulouse to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Ligue 1

Toulouse4
Played
Lyon4
Toulouse1
Avg goals for
Lyon1.5
Toulouse1.8
Avg goals against
Lyon0.5
Toulouse0
Clean sheets
Lyon2
Best odds for this sectionLyon to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 35% · edge +6.5 pts
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Load more odds for this section
Toulouse Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Lyon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Toulouse to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Season data supports Lyon to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Lyon842204
17Toulouse24022-3
Toulouse sit in position 17, while Lyon sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the , yet the visitors already have match rhythm that Toulouse cannot replicate through friendlies assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Toulouse Over 2.5
-Lyon Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over 2.5 Goals is supported by a strong scoring trend in six of the last seven meetings and Toulouse's defensive weaknesses last season.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Toulouse v Lyon prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Competition and hubs

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Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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