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São Bernardo crestSão Bernardo
v
Cuiaba crestCuiaba

Serie B | Sun 12 Jul, 20:00

São Bernardo v Cuiaba Stats

Data last updated: Sat 11 Jul 2026, 04:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

São Bernardo and Cuiaba meet in a Serie B clash where recent form and attacking intent set the stage for a competitive encounter. Cuiaba arrives with stronger momentum, having secured 10 points from recent matches compared to São Bernardo's 4. Both teams show moderate goal-scoring rates, but Cuiaba's slightly better defensive record and higher shot volume suggest they will press for control. Tactical discipline and key attacking roles will be decisive, with Cuiaba aiming to capitalize on their offensive edge and maintain their positive run in the league.

BT4Y best bet

Cuiaba to Win

  • Cuiaba holds a clear recent form advantage with 10 points versus São Bernardo's 4.
  • Cuiaba averages 14.2 shots per game, significantly more than São Bernardo's 11.
  • Defensively, Cuiaba concedes fewer goals per match (0.8) than São Bernardo (1.2).
  • Both teams have a 40% rate for Over 2.5 goals and BTTS, indicating potential for goals but balanced risk.
  • Cuiaba ranks 10th with 23 points, close behind São Bernardo in 7th with 25 points, adding competitive stakes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Cuiaba to win based on their superior recent form, higher shot volume, and more efficient defense. Cuiaba's attackers, led by Aiyran, generate significant shooting opportunities, increasing scoring potential. São Bernardo's lower goal output and defensive vulnerability support the away win prediction. The data quality is solid, with no limitations affecting . The current reflect a standard stake recommendation, indicating a balanced but confident selection.

Recent FormCuiaba 10 points vs São Bernardo 4
Strong positive
Shot VolumeCuiaba 14.2 avg shots vs São Bernardo 11
Strong positive
Defensive RecordCuiaba concedes 0.8 goals vs São Bernardo 1.2
Positive
Goal ThreatAiyran leads Cuiaba with 5.63 shots on target per 90
Strong positive
Data QualityNo limited data for either team
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cuiaba's recent form and attacking efficiency make them the favored side in this Serie B fixture. Their ability to create more shots and maintain defensive solidity contrasts with São Bernardo's struggles to score and prevent goals. This combination suggests Cuiaba has the tactical and statistical edge to secure victory.

Main risk

The main risk is São Bernardo's home advantage and potential to disrupt Cuiaba's rhythm, which could limit scoring chances and tighten the match outcome.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Cuiaba's attacking and defensive balance

“Cuiaba's offensive dynamism, particularly through Aiyran's prolific shooting, combined with a tighter defense, positions them well to overcome São Bernardo's home challenge in this key Serie B contest.”

Key Data Signals

Cuiaba to Win evidence

Cuiaba holds a clear recent form advantage with 10 points versus São Bernardo's 4.

Cuiaba averages 14.2 shots per game, significantly more than São Bernardo's 11.

Defensively, Cuiaba concedes fewer goals per match (0.8) than São Bernardo (1.2).

Both teams have a 40% rate for Over 2.5 goals and BTTS, indicating potential for goals but balanced risk.

What To Watch In The Data

Cuiaba to Win notes

  • In recent matches, both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating a moderate likelihood of goals.
  • The trend suggests a balanced tempo with opportunities for both sides, but defensive discipline may keep the total goals under tighter control.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

São Bernardo2.4
Avg corners for
Cuiaba7.4
São Bernardo9.6
Avg total corners
Cuiaba9.8
São Bernardo3.2
Avg yellow cards
Cuiaba1.8
São Bernardo11
Avg shots
Cuiaba14.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 55% · edge +8.1 pts
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Cuiaba's average of 7.4 corners per game and higher shot volume reflect sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. São Bernardo's higher yellow card average (3.2) versus Cuiaba's 1.8 suggests a more aggressive defensive approach, potentially leading to set-piece opportunities and tactical fouls.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

São Bernardo0.8
Avg goals scored
Cuiaba1.2
São Bernardo1.2
Avg goals conceded
Cuiaba0.8
São Bernardo40%
BTTS rate
Cuiaba40%
São Bernardo40%
Over 2.5 goals
Cuiaba40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 44% · edge +12.3 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Both teams have a 40% rate for Over 2.5 goals and BTTS, indicating moderate goal-scoring potential but also defensive caution. This balance suggests a match where goals are possible but not guaranteed, supporting a win-focused bet rather than a high-scoring prediction.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCuiaba to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 30% · edge +39.7 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
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Cuiaba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
The pricing for Cuiaba to win aligns with their 70% , reflecting without excessive value pressure. The suggest a balanced market view, making this a solid selection rather than a speculative value bet.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

São Bernardo

LLLDW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
06 Jul 2026A Vila Nova1-2
27 Jun 2026A Criciuma0-1
21 Jun 2026H Juventude0-1
14 Jun 2026H Sport Recife0-0
07 Jun 2026A CRB3-2

Cuiaba

WDLWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
03 Jul 2026H America Mineiro1-0
26 Jun 2026H Londrina2-2
21 Jun 2026A Avai0-1
14 Jun 2026H Vila Nova1-0
09 Jun 2026A Ponte Preta2-1
Market aligned with main pickCuiaba to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 30% · edge +39.7 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
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Cuiaba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Cuiaba's recent form is notably stronger, accumulating 10 points compared to São Bernardo's 4 in recent matches. This momentum is backed by better goal difference and defensive solidity, indicating Cuiaba's readiness to control the game and secure a positive result.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0São Bernardo wins
0Draws
0Cuiaba wins
Market aligned with main pickCuiaba to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 30% · edge +39.7 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
No previous head-to-head data exists between São Bernardo and Cuiaba, so historical meetings provide no direct insight. The focus shifts to current form and tactical analysis to assess the likely outcome.
Season team stats

Serie B

São Bernardo16
Played
Cuiaba16
São Bernardo1.3
Avg goals for
Cuiaba0.8
São Bernardo0.9
Avg goals against
Cuiaba0.6
São Bernardo5
Clean sheets
Cuiaba9
Market aligned with main pickCuiaba to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 30% · edge +39.7 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
Cuiaba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Over the season, Cuiaba has maintained a better defensive record, conceding 0.8 goals per game compared to São Bernardo's 1.2. Their slightly higher scoring rate (1.2 goals per game) and greater shot volume underline a more effective attack, supporting the away win prediction.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
8São Bernardo25167457
10Cuiaba23165833
São Bernardo sits 7th with 25 points, narrowly ahead of 10th-placed Cuiaba with 23 points. The close standings add competitive tension, but Cuiaba's recent form suggests they can close the gap with a win, increasing the fixture's stakes.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%São Bernardo Over 2.5
40%Cuiaba Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
In recent matches, both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating a moderate likelihood of goals. The trend suggests a balanced tempo with opportunities for both sides, but defensive discipline may keep the total goals under tighter control.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

São Bernardo v Cuiaba prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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