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Independiente del Valle crestIndependiente del Valle
v
Flamengo crestFlamengo

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Fri 11 Sep, 01:30

Independiente del Valle v Flamengo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:43 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Independiente del Valle face Flamengo in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Fri 11 Sep, 01:30. Flamengo and Independiente del Valle have both won 5 of their last 7 matches, showing recent competitive form.

BT4Y best bet

BTTS Yes

  • At 1/1, BTTS Yes implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 60%.
  • Selection: BTTS Yes.
  • Independiente del Valle show a 40% BTTS rate and Flamengo show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Independiente del Valle average 1.8 goals scored and Flamengo average 2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 60% for BTTS Yes sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. Independiente del Valle show a 40% BTTS rate and Flamengo show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: BTTS Yes.

Model chance vs price60% model chance against roughly 50% implied
Positive
Independiente del Valle show a 40% BTTS rate and Flamengo.Visible data support
Positive
Independiente del Valle average 1.8 goals scored and Flamengo average.Visible data support
Positive
Selection: BTTS Yes.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because selection: BTTS Yes. Independiente del Valle show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Flamengo show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Independiente del Valle arrive after beating Libertad 3-2 away, continuing a recent pattern of productive but defensively loose matches.

Main risk

Independiente del Valle arrive after beating Libertad 3-2 away, continuing a recent pattern of productive but defensively loose matches.

Key Data Signals

BTTS Yes evidence

Selection: BTTS Yes.

Independiente del Valle show a 40% BTTS rate and Flamengo show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Independiente del Valle average 1.8 goals scored and Flamengo average 2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

BTTS Yes notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Independiente del Valle1.8
Avg goals scored
Flamengo2
Independiente del Valle0.8
Avg goals conceded
Flamengo0.4
Independiente del Valle40%
BTTS rate
Flamengo40%
Independiente del Valle40%
Over 2.5 goals
Flamengo60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 49% · edge +11.2 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Independiente del Valle

WWWWL
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 1L
26 Aug 2026H Deportes Tolima3-1
19 Aug 2026A Deportes Tolima1-0
27 May 2026H Rosario Central1-0
20 May 2026H Libertad Asuncion4-1
06 May 2026A UCV0-2

Flamengo

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 0L
20 Aug 2026H Cruzeiro2-1
13 Aug 2026A Cruzeiro1-1
27 May 2026H Cusco3-0
21 May 2026H Estudiantes L.P.1-0
08 May 2026A Independiente Medellin3-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 74% · edge +2.8 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Flamengo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Flamengo to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Independiente del Valle to WinBetfred guide price · model 35%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Independiente del Valle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 49% · edge +11.2 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Flamengo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Flamengo to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Independiente del Valle to WinBetfred guide price · model 35%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Independiente del Valle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Independiente del Valle Over 2.5
60%Flamengo Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Independiente del Valle sit at 40% and Flamengo sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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