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Independiente del Valle crestIndependiente del Valle
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Flamengo crestFlamengo

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Fri 11 Sep, 01:30

Independiente del Valle v Flamengo Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 08:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This CONMEBOL Libertadores clash sees Independiente del Valle aiming to assert early control in Group A against Flamengo, the reigning holders. Flamengo arrive with strong home momentum, boasting six consecutive wins at the Maracana and a potent attack led by Pedro and Arrascaeta. Independiente del Valle, meanwhile, have shown resilience on the road but face a stern test to break down Flamengo's disciplined defense. The visitors rely on sharp transitions and efficient passing, while Flamengo's high possession and pressing style set the stage for a tactical battle with significant stakes for group positioning.

BT4Y best bet

Independiente del Valle Win & Over 2.5 Goals

  • Independiente del Valle have a solid away record with 12 points recently and average 1.8 goals per game.
  • Flamengo maintain a strong defensive record with only 0.4 goals conceded per game and six straight home wins.
  • Both teams show moderate BTTS rates at 40%, suggesting selective scoring opportunities.
  • Independiente del Valle average 20.8 shots per match, indicating an aggressive attacking approach.
  • Flamengo's possession control and shot volume create sustained pressure but Independiente's counter threat remains potent.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Independiente del Valle to win with over 2.5 goals due to their strong attacking metrics, including a high average of 20.8 shots per game and key players like C. Reasco delivering significant goal threat. Despite Flamengo's home strength and defensive solidity, Independiente's offensive volume and ability to convert chances support the expectation of multiple goals. The offer a slight , reflecting a balanced but optimistic outlook for an open, high-scoring contest. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Attacking VolumeIndependiente del Valle average 20.8 shots per game
Strong positive
Key PlayersC. González (7 goals), D. Reasco (11.84 shots/90)
Strong positive
Defensive ChallengeFlamengo concede only 0.4 goals per game
Neutral
Value Edge1.1% positive edge at 9/2 odds
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Independiente del Valle's aggressive attacking style and key goal threats position them well to challenge Flamengo's defense, especially if they exploit transition opportunities. The data supports a high-scoring game with the visitors edging a win, reflecting tactical and statistical backing for this combined bet.

Main risk

Medellin do move the ball cleanly, but their attacking threat looks lighter over time.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Player impact and tactical matchup

“Independiente del Valle's offensive firepower, led by González and Reasco, combined with Flamengo's occasional midfield absences, creates a compelling scenario for a high-scoring upset at the Maracana.”

Key Data Signals

Independiente del Valle Win & Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Independiente del Valle have a solid away record with 12 points recently and average 1.8 goals per game.

Flamengo maintain a strong defensive record with only 0.4 goals conceded per game and six straight home wins.

Both teams show moderate BTTS rates at 40%, suggesting selective scoring opportunities.

Independiente del Valle average 20.8 shots per match, indicating an aggressive attacking approach.

What To Watch In The Data

Independiente del Valle Win & Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last six meetings, the average goals per game stand at 3, indicating a trend towards open, attacking matches.
  • Independiente del Valle's 40% over 2.5 goals rate and Flamengo's 60% rate suggest a propensity for multiple goals, driven by offensive tempo and transitional opportunities, making the over 2.5 goals trend a relevant factor in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Independiente del Valle6.6
Avg corners for
Flamengo4
Independiente del Valle9.4
Avg total corners
Flamengo6.5
Independiente del Valle1.2
Avg yellow cards
Flamengo0.5
Independiente del Valle20.8
Avg shots
Flamengo16.75
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Independiente del Valle average 6.6 corners per game compared to Flamengo's 3.8, highlighting their attacking pressure and territorial advantage. Both teams maintain low yellow card averages, with Independiente at 1.2 and Flamengo at 0.8, indicating disciplined play. The shot volume favors Independiente's offensive intent, reinforcing the expectation of sustained attacking phases and set-piece opportunities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Independiente del Valle1.8
Avg goals scored
Flamengo2
Independiente del Valle0.8
Avg goals conceded
Flamengo0.4
Independiente del Valle40%
BTTS rate
Flamengo40%
Independiente del Valle40%
Over 2.5 goals
Flamengo60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 43% · edge +12.2 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, indicating moderate likelihood of both scoring. Flamengo's strong defense contrasts with Independiente's aggressive attack, suggesting goals will come but possibly not from both sides consistently. The under 3.5 goals context aligns with a match featuring multiple goals but controlled scoring, supporting the over 2.5 goals pick without guaranteeing BTTS.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickIndependiente del Valle to WinBetfred guide price · Model 35% vs implied 36% · edge -0.4 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Independiente del Valle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The 9/2 for Independiente del Valle to win with over 2.5 goals reflect a modest value opportunity, slightly above the model's 19.3% chance. This pricing suggests the market acknowledges the visitors' attacking potential despite Flamengo's home strength, making this a price-sensitive but attractive bet if Independiente can maintain offensive pressure.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Independiente del Valle

WWWWL
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 1L
26 Aug 2026H Deportes Tolima3-1
19 Aug 2026A Deportes Tolima1-0
27 May 2026H Rosario Central1-0
20 May 2026H Libertad Asuncion4-1
06 May 2026A UCV0-2

Flamengo

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 0L
20 Aug 2026H Cruzeiro2-1
13 Aug 2026A Cruzeiro1-1
27 May 2026H Cusco3-0
21 May 2026H Estudiantes L.P.1-0
08 May 2026A Independiente Medellin3-0
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 71% · edge -8.5 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Independiente del Valle to WinBetfred guide price · model 35%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Independiente del Valle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Independiente del Valle have accumulated 12 points recently with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, showing a balanced but attack-minded form. Flamengo's recent form is slightly superior with 13 points and a stronger defensive record, conceding only 0.4 goals per game. This contrast suggests Independiente's attacking momentum could challenge Flamengo's defensive resilience in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Independiente del Valle wins
1Draws
3Flamengo wins
01 Mar 2023Flamengo v Independiente del Valle1-0
22 Feb 2023Independiente del Valle v Flamengo1-0
01 Oct 2020Flamengo v Independiente del Valle4-0
18 Sep 2020Independiente del Valle v Flamengo5-0
27 Feb 2020Flamengo v Independiente del Valle3-0
20 Feb 2020Independiente del Valle v Flamengo2-2
Market aligned with main pickIndependiente del Valle to WinBetfred guide price · Model 35% vs implied 36% · edge -0.4 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The six previous encounters between Independiente del Valle and Flamengo have averaged three goals per match, reflecting a history of open play and scoring opportunities. While Flamengo's home advantage is notable, the head-to-head data supports the expectation of a competitive game with multiple goals, lending moderate backing to the combined bet on Independiente's win and over 2.5 goals.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente del Valle8
Played
Flamengo7
Independiente del Valle1.9
Avg goals for
Flamengo2
Independiente del Valle0.9
Avg goals against
Flamengo0.6
Independiente del Valle3
Clean sheets
Flamengo3
Market aligned with main pickIndependiente del Valle to WinBetfred guide price · Model 35% vs implied 36% · edge -0.4 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Load more odds for this section
Independiente del Valle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Independiente del Valle's season stats reveal a potent offense averaging 1.8 goals per game and a solid defense conceding 0.8 goals, supporting their capacity to score multiple goals while maintaining defensive discipline. Flamengo's superior defensive stats and higher goals for average (2.0) indicate a strong all-around team, but Independiente's attacking numbers justify in an open, goal-rich encounter.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Flamengo16651012
1Independiente del Valle1364115
Both Independiente del Valle and Flamengo sit atop their group with 13 and 16 points respectively, underscoring the high stakes of this fixture. The tight competition adds pressure for Independiente to secure a win and maintain group leadership, while Flamengo aims to consolidate control at home. This context elevates the importance of tactical execution and goal-scoring efficiency.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Independiente del Valle Over 2.5
60%Flamengo Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last six meetings, the average goals per game stand at 3, indicating a trend towards open, attacking matches. Independiente del Valle's 40% over 2.5 goals rate and Flamengo's 60% rate suggest a propensity for multiple goals, driven by offensive tempo and transitional opportunities, making the over 2.5 goals trend a relevant factor in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Independiente del Valle v Flamengo prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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