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Georgia crestGeorgia
v
Romania crestRomania

Friendlies | Tue 02 Jun, 18:00

Georgia v Romania Stats

Data last updated: Wed 03 Jun 2026, 00:39 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Georgia hosts Romania in a friendly that marks the start of Gheorghe Hagi's second spell as Romania manager. Georgia arrives with renewed after ending a five-match winless streak with a 2-0 home win over Lithuania, while Romania struggles on the road, having failed to score in consecutive away defeats. Both teams face significant attacking absences, shaping a tactical battle focused on midfield control and defensive organisation. Georgia's home advantage and recent positive momentum contrast with Romania's transitional phase and road form issues, setting the stage for a closely contested encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Georgia to Win

  • Georgia ended a five-match winless streak with a 2-0 home win over Lithuania.
  • Romania has failed to score in their last two away matches and conceded 11 goals in five road games.
  • Key attacking players are missing for Georgia, including Kvaratskhelia, Mikautadze, and Davitashvili.
  • Romania begins a new managerial era under Gheorghe Hagi amid offensive struggles.
  • Recent head-to-head matches have been high scoring, but current absences suggest a tighter game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance to Georgia winning, reflecting their recent morale-boosting home victory and Romania's poor away form with consecutive scoreless defeats. Georgia's ability to capitalise on opportunities despite missing key attackers, combined with Romania's defensive vulnerabilities on the road, supports the home win pick. The price offers strong value with a 27.5% edge. However, the absence of several Georgian forwards means midfield control and defensive solidity will be crucial, and the thinner attacking sample adds some uncertainty to the outcome.

Recent FormGeorgia broke a negative streak with a 2-0 win; Romania lost two away games without scoring
Strong positive
Home AdvantageGeorgia playing at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena with positive momentum
Positive
Romania Away DefenseConceded 11 goals in last 5 away matches, showing defensive fragility
Strong positive
Key AbsencesGeorgia missing Kvaratskhelia, Mikautadze, Davitashvili reducing attacking threat
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Georgia's recent home victory and Romania's ongoing away struggles make the hosts the logical choice. Georgia's ability to efficiently manage chances and Romania's transitional phase under a new manager suggest Georgia will edge this match. The home side's defensive organisation and momentum provide a solid foundation for victory.

Main risk

The main risk lies in Georgia's missing attacking stars, which could limit goal-scoring chances and allow Romania to exploit counterattacks if defensive lapses occur.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Georgia's home form and recent win provide a strong platform, while Romania's offensive issues and defensive instability on the road leave them vulnerable. This match is likely to be tight but favors Georgia's tactical cohesion and momentum.”

Key Data Signals

Georgia to Win evidence

Georgia ended a five-match winless streak with a 2-0 home win over Lithuania.

Romania has failed to score in their last two away matches and conceded 11 goals in five road games.

Key attacking players are missing for Georgia, including Kvaratskhelia, Mikautadze, and Davitashvili.

Romania begins a new managerial era under Gheorghe Hagi amid offensive struggles.

What To Watch In The Data

Georgia to Win notes

  • Recent head-to-head encounters have averaged over three goals, but current tactical setups and personnel absences suggest a departure from this trend.
  • The last five matches indicate a likely lower tempo and fewer goal-scoring opportunities, pointing to a cautious game with under 2.5 goals probable.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Georgia2
Avg goals scored
Romania0
Georgia1
Avg goals conceded
Romania2
Georgia50%
BTTS rate
Romania0%
Georgia50%
Over 2.5 goals
Romania0%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 57% · edge +8.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Despite four previous meetings producing at least three goals, current attacking absences on both sides suggest a low-scoring game. Georgia's missing forwards and Romania's consecutive scoreless away matches point toward a tight contest with limited clear-cut chances, reducing the likelihood of both teams scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGeorgia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 47% · edge +27.5 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Georgia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The for Georgia to win reflect a strong model of 74%, offering good value with a 27.5% edge over the implied market chance of 46.5%. The price is attractive given Georgia's recent positive form and Romania's poor away record, making this a price-sensitive but justified selection.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Georgia6
Avg corners for
Romania-
Georgia13
Avg total corners
Romania-
Georgia1
Avg yellow cards
Romania-
Georgia9
Avg shots
Romania-
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 56% · edge +19.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Georgia averages six corners and three shots on target per match, indicating moderate attacking pressure at home. Romania's lack of available data limits analysis, but their defensive struggles on the road suggest Georgia may dominate territory and set-piece opportunities. Georgia's disciplined approach with one yellow card per game supports controlled aggression.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Georgia

WD
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
29 Mar 2026A Lithuania2-0
26 Mar 2026H Israel2-2

Romania

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
31 Mar 2026A Slovakia0-2
Market aligned with main pickGeorgia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 47% · edge +27.5 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Georgia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Georgia's recent form shows a positive shift with a 2-0 win ending a five-match winless run, while Romania continues to struggle away from home with consecutive scoreless defeats. This contrast in momentum and favors Georgia to maintain their upward trajectory in this friendly.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Georgia wins
0Draws
0Romania wins
02 Jun 2021Romania v Georgia1-2
Market aligned with main pickGeorgia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 47% · edge +27.5 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The four most recent meetings between Georgia and Romania have featured at least three goals, including a 2-1 win for Georgia. However, current attacking absences and tactical caution from both sides reduce the relevance of these high-scoring past results, suggesting a more defensive contest this time.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Friendlies

Georgia2
Played
Romania1
Georgia2
Avg goals for
Romania0
Georgia1
Avg goals against
Romania2
Georgia1
Clean sheets
Romania0
Market aligned with main pickGeorgia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 47% · edge +27.5 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Georgia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Georgia's season profile highlights a team capable of efficient finishing despite limited control, reflected in their recent clean sheet and goal-scoring in the last match. Romania's defensive frailty on the road, conceding 11 goals in five away matches, underscores their vulnerability and supports Georgia's chances to capitalize at home.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Georgia Over 2.5
0%Romania Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Recent head-to-head encounters have averaged over three goals, but current tactical setups and personnel absences suggest a departure from this trend. The last five matches indicate a likely lower tempo and fewer goal-scoring opportunities, pointing to a cautious game with under 2.5 goals probable.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Georgia v Romania prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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