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FC St. Pauli crestFC St. Pauli
v
FSV Mainz 05 crestFSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga | Sun 03 May, 14:30

FC St. Pauli v FSV Mainz 05 Stats

Data last updated: Thu 25 Jun 2026, 01:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Pauli face FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga on Sun 03 May, 14:30. Pauli come in with 2 recent points and 0.6 goals per match, while FSV Mainz 05 have 7 points and 1.6 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

FSV Mainz 05 to Win

  • At 2.62, FSV Mainz 05 Win implies roughly 38%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 70%.
  • FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 2 for FC St.
  • FSV Mainz 05 have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the FSV Mainz 05 Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Pauli sit 18 in the table, while FSV Mainz 05 sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 70% for FSV Mainz 05 Win sits against roughly 38% implied by the current price. FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 2 for FC St.

Model chance vs price70% model chance against roughly 38% implied
Strong positive
FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger recent points return, taking.Visible data support
Positive
FSV Mainz 05 have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: FSV Mainz 05 Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 2 for FC St. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

FSV Mainz 05 Win evidence

FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 2 for FC St.

FSV Mainz 05 have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the FSV Mainz 05 Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Pauli sit 18 in the table, while FSV Mainz 05 sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

FSV Mainz 05 Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    FC St. Pauli4.4
    Avg corners for
    FSV Mainz 054.8
    FC St. Pauli9.2
    Avg total corners
    FSV Mainz 058.4
    FC St. Pauli1.8
    Avg yellow cards
    FSV Mainz 051.4
    FC St. Pauli10.4
    Avg shots
    FSV Mainz 0513
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 60% · edge -1.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
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    Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 50%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    FC St. Pauli0.6
    Avg goals scored
    FSV Mainz 051.6
    FC St. Pauli2.2
    Avg goals conceded
    FSV Mainz 051.6
    FC St. Pauli60%
    BTTS rate
    FSV Mainz 0580%
    FC St. Pauli40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    FSV Mainz 0560%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 29% · edge +46.6 pts
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickFSV Mainz 05 to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 38% · edge +31.8 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    FSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 59%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    FSV Mainz 05 to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    FC St. Pauli

    LDLDL
    Last 50W 2D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 3D 5L
    25 Apr 2026A 1. FC Heidenheim0-2
    17 Apr 2026H 1. FC Köln1-1
    11 Apr 2026H Bayern München0-5
    05 Apr 2026A Union Berlin1-1
    22 Mar 2026H SC Freiburg1-2

    FSV Mainz 05

    LDLWW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 4D 3L
    25 Apr 2026H Bayern München3-4
    19 Apr 2026A Borussia Mönchengladbach1-1
    12 Apr 2026H SC Freiburg0-1
    04 Apr 2026A 1899 Hoffenheim2-1
    22 Mar 2026H Eintracht Frankfurt2-1
    Market aligned with main pickFSV Mainz 05 to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 38% · edge +31.8 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
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    FSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
    1.46
    Check odds @ 1.46
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0FC St. Pauli wins
    1Draws
    4FSV Mainz 05 wins
    21 Dec 2025FSV Mainz 05 v FC St. Pauli0-0
    22 Feb 2025FSV Mainz 05 v FC St. Pauli2-0
    05 Oct 2024FC St. Pauli v FSV Mainz 050-3
    14 May 2011FSV Mainz 05 v FC St. Pauli2-1
    18 Dec 2010FC St. Pauli v FSV Mainz 052-4
    Market aligned with main pickFSV Mainz 05 to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 38% · edge +31.8 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    The head-to-head sample gives context for FSV Mainz 05 to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Bundesliga

    FC St. Pauli34
    Played
    FSV Mainz 0534
    FC St. Pauli0.9
    Avg goals for
    FSV Mainz 051.3
    FC St. Pauli1.8
    Avg goals against
    FSV Mainz 051.6
    FC St. Pauli5
    Clean sheets
    FSV Mainz 054
    Market aligned with main pickFSV Mainz 05 to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 38% · edge +31.8 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    FSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Season data supports FSV Mainz 05 to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    10FSV Mainz 054034101014-9
    18FC St. Pauli26346820-31
    Pauli sit in position 18, while FSV Mainz 05 sit in position 10, so table pressure belongs in the FSV Mainz 05 Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%FC St. Pauli Over 2.5
    60%FSV Mainz 05 Over 2.5
    2.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: FC St. Pauli sit at 40% and FSV Mainz 05 sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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