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RB Bragantino crestRB Bragantino
v
Mirassol crestMirassol

Serie A | Wed 07 Oct, 23:30

RB Bragantino v Mirassol Stats

Data last updated: Tue 06 Oct 2026, 07:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Mirassol arrives in this Serie A clash with solid recent form, having collected 8 points compared to RB Bragantino's single point in their last five matches. Mirassol's more compact defensive shape and efficient counter-attacks contrast with RB Bragantino's struggles to convert chances despite higher shot volumes. The away side's tactical discipline and momentum suggest they can exploit Bragantino's defensive vulnerabilities, making this a competitive fixture with Mirassol poised to capitalize on their current and tactical setup.

BT4Y best bet

Mirassol to Win

  • Mirassol has earned 8 points in recent matches versus RB Bragantino's 1 point.
  • Mirassol concedes fewer goals per game (1.2) compared to RB Bragantino (1.8).
  • RB Bragantino averages more shots (16.8) but struggles with finishing efficiency.
  • Mirassol's defensive solidity and counter-attacking threat create value at 4.5 .
  • Recent form and season stats favor Mirassol's chances to secure a win.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Mirassol's chances to win at 70%, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 22.2%, indicating strong value at the 4.5 offered. Mirassol's recent form, defensive resilience, and ability to capitalize on RB Bragantino's defensive lapses underpin this . Although RB Bragantino generates more shots, their lower conversion rate and recent poor results reduce their likelihood of victory. This pick balances tactical momentum and statistical evidence, making Mirassol to win a compelling selection with standard stake guidance.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance37.2% model chance vs 22.2% implied (+15 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge37.2% model chance vs 22.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormMirassol strong, RB Bragantino weak
Positive
Defensive RecordsMirassol concedes less
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Mirassol's recent form and defensive organization provide a tactical edge over RB Bragantino, who have struggled to convert chances despite creating more opportunities. The data supports Mirassol's potential to secure an away victory, making this a confident pick based on both momentum and statistical trends.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Mirassol's disciplined defensive approach and recent points haul position them well to upset RB Bragantino, who have yet to find consistent attacking efficiency this season.”

Key Data Signals

Mirassol to Win evidence

Mirassol has earned 8 points in recent matches versus RB Bragantino's 1 point.

Mirassol concedes fewer goals per game (1.2) compared to RB Bragantino (1.8).

RB Bragantino averages more shots (16.8) but struggles with finishing efficiency.

Mirassol's defensive solidity and counter-attacking threat create value at 4.5 .

What To Watch In The Data

Mirassol to Win notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 1.9, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters.
  • Mirassol's lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%) compared to Bragantino's (60%) suggests matches may be tighter with fewer goals.
  • This trend points to a controlled tempo with chances for both sides but not necessarily a high-scoring game.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

RB Bragantino1
Avg goals scored
Mirassol1.4
RB Bragantino1.8
Avg goals conceded
Mirassol1.2
RB Bragantino80%
BTTS rate
Mirassol60%
RB Bragantino60%
Over 2.5 goals
Mirassol40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 26%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Both teams have moderate goal-scoring rates, with Mirassol averaging 1.4 goals per game and RB Bragantino 1.0. BTTS rates are 60% for Mirassol and 80% for Bragantino, indicating a reasonable chance of both teams scoring. However, Mirassol's stronger defense may limit Bragantino's scoring opportunities, suggesting a balanced goal market with potential for a competitive scoreline.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

RB Bragantino

LLDLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
03 Oct 2026A Atletico-MG0-1
20 Sep 2026A Flamengo1-2
13 Sep 2026A Botafogo1-1
05 Sep 2026H Bahia2-3
30 Aug 2026A Sao Paulo1-2

Mirassol

WDWLD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
19 Sep 2026H Botafogo2-0
13 Sep 2026H Vitoria2-2
06 Sep 2026A Coritiba2-1
02 Sep 2026A Flamengo0-2
30 Aug 2026H Palmeiras1-1
Market aligned with main pickMirassol to WinBetfred guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Mirassol Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Mirassol's recent run of 8 points contrasts sharply with RB Bragantino's single point, reflecting a momentum advantage. Mirassol's ability to secure points away from home and maintain defensive solidity underpins their . RB Bragantino's struggles to convert chances and defensive lapses have contributed to their poor form, making Mirassol the form favorite.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMirassol to WinBetfred guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Mirassol Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The 37.2% for Mirassol to Win sits against roughly 22.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Mirassol have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 1 for RB Bragantino.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%RB Bragantino Over 2.5
40%Mirassol Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 1.9, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters. Mirassol's lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%) compared to Bragantino's (60%) suggests matches may be tighter with fewer goals. This trend points to a controlled tempo with chances for both sides but not necessarily a high-scoring game.

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