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Remo crestRemo
v
Gremio crestGremio

Serie A | Wed 07 Oct, 23:30

Remo v Gremio Stats

Data last updated: Tue 06 Oct 2026, 07:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Remo and Gremio face off in a crucial Serie A clash with both teams under significant pressure to improve their league standing. Remo arrive on a five-match losing streak, struggling defensively with 47 goals conceded this season, while Gremio have also shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 38 goals and allowing a high volume of shots. Both sides have inconsistent scoring records but tend to concede frequently, setting the stage for a potentially open and high-scoring encounter. Tactical factors such as Remo's defensive frailty and Gremio's ability to generate chances despite recent poor form add to the anticipation of multiple goals in this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Remo have conceded 47 goals in 28 matches, averaging 1.8 goals against in their last 10 games.
  • Gremio allow opponents 19.1 shots per game over their last 10 fixtures, indicating defensive exposure.
  • Both teams have high Over 2.5 Goals rates recently: Remo 80%, Gremio 60%.
  • Recent matches show both sides scoring and conceding regularly, supporting a goal-rich game.
  • Previous meeting ended 0-0, but current form and defensive issues suggest more goals this time.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 2.5 Goals as the best pick due to the pronounced defensive weaknesses of both Remo and Gremio. Remo's porous backline concedes an average of 1.8 goals per game recently, while Gremio's defense allows a high volume of shots, increasing the likelihood of goals. Despite the slight price sensitivity, the tactical context of both teams needing results and their tendency to concede supports a match with at least three goals. The data quality is solid, with no limitations on team stats, reinforcing in this selection.

Remo Defensive Vulnerability1.8 goals conceded per game (last 10)
Strong positive
Gremio Defensive Exposure19.1 opponent shots per game (last 10)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 RatesRemo 80%, Gremio 60%
Positive
Price Sensitivity54.8% model chance vs 52.6% implied (+2.2 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game where defensive frailties on both sides create multiple scoring opportunities. Remo's urgency to break their losing streak combined with Gremio's ability to generate shots suggests a lively encounter with at least three goals scored.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking and defensive dynamics

“Both teams have struggled defensively this season, and with their attacking efforts showing some promise, this fixture is set for a high-scoring outcome. The tactical necessity to gain points will likely push both sides to commit forward, increasing goal chances.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Remo have conceded 47 goals in 28 matches, averaging 1.8 goals against in their last 10 games.

Gremio allow opponents 19.1 shots per game over their last 10 fixtures, indicating defensive exposure.

Both teams have high Over 2.5 Goals rates recently: Remo 80%, Gremio 60%.

Recent matches show both sides scoring and conceding regularly, supporting a goal-rich game.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last five matches involving these teams, Over 2.5 Goals has been a frequent outcome, with both sides conceding and scoring regularly.
  • The previous head-to-head ended 0-0, but current trends and defensive vulnerabilities suggest a faster tempo and more open game, increasing the likelihood of three or more goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Remo1
Avg goals scored
Gremio1.2
Remo2
Avg goals conceded
Gremio1.4
Remo80%
BTTS rate
Gremio60%
Remo80%
Over 2.5 goals
Gremio60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 53% · edge +2.2 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have shown a tendency to score and concede in recent matches, with Remo scoring in 4 of their last 5 and Gremio in 3 of 5. However, the BTTS rate is higher for Remo (80%) than Gremio (60%), suggesting goals from both sides are likely but not guaranteed, aligning with an Over 2.5 Goals scenario rather than a strict BTTS pick.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 53% · edge +2.2 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Gremio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Remo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetUK guide price · model 23%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The 54.8% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 52.6% implied by the current price (+2.2 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Remo and 60% for Gremio, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Remo

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 7L
19 Sep 2026H Santos1-2
15 Sep 2026A Bahia1-2
06 Sep 2026H Flamengo0-1
01 Sep 2026H Coritiba2-3
22 Aug 2026A Fluminense1-2

Gremio

DLLLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
20 Sep 2026H Palmeiras0-0
16 Sep 2026A Botafogo2-3
12 Sep 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-2
08 Sep 2026A Vitoria0-1
30 Aug 2026H Chapecoense-sc3-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 80% vs implied 65% · edge +15 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Gremio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Remo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetUK guide price · model 23%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Remo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Recent form data shows Remo struggling with zero points from their last five matches and conceding an average of 2 goals per game, while Gremio have collected 4 points in the same period with a slightly better defensive record. Both teams' recent Over 2.5 Goals rates (Remo 80%, Gremio 60%) reinforce the expectation of a high-scoring match despite inconsistent results.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Remo Over 2.5
60%Gremio Over 2.5
0H2H avg goals
In the last five matches involving these teams, Over 2.5 Goals has been a frequent outcome, with both sides conceding and scoring regularly. The previous head-to-head ended 0-0, but current trends and defensive vulnerabilities suggest a faster tempo and more open game, increasing the likelihood of three or more goals.

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