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Ponte Preta crestPonte Preta
v
Juventude crestJuventude

Serie B | Wed 07 Oct, 01:35

Ponte Preta v Juventude Stats

Data last updated: Tue 27 Oct 2026, 07:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ponte Preta face Juventude in Serie B on Wed 07 Oct, 01:35. Ponte Preta have conceded 66 league goals and scored only 17, leaving them with a goal difference of -49.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Over 2

  • At 3/4, Over 2 implies roughly 57%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 34%.
  • Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Ponte Preta and 40% for Juventude, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Juventude are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Ponte Preta at 0.2.
  • BTTS rates of 0% for Ponte Preta and 20% for Juventude show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.
Price warning

Over 2 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 57% while the model sits nearer 34% (-23.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Ponte Preta Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 6.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 34% for Over 2 sits against roughly 57% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Ponte Preta and 40% for Juventude, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.

Model chance vs price34% model chance against roughly 57% implied
Negative
The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Ponte Preta.Visible data support
Positive
Juventude are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4.Visible data support
Positive
Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because selection: Over 2.5 Goals. The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Ponte Preta and 40% for Juventude, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2 evidence

Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.

The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Ponte Preta and 40% for Juventude, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Juventude are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Ponte Preta at 0.2.

BTTS rates of 0% for Ponte Preta and 20% for Juventude show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2 notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ponte Preta0.2
Avg goals scored
Juventude1.4
Ponte Preta2.4
Avg goals conceded
Juventude0.8
Ponte Preta0%
BTTS rate
Juventude20%
Ponte Preta20%
Over 2.5 goals
Juventude40%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 34% vs implied 50% · edge -16 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 2.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 20% for Ponte Preta and 40% for Juventude, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 34% vs implied 50% · edge -16 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Ponte Preta Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
Ponte Preta to WinBet365 guide price · model 25%
10
Check odds @ 10
Juventude to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Juventude Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 Goals is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ponte Preta

LLWLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 8L
03 Oct 2026A Cuiaba0-2
29 Sep 2026A Botafogo SP0-2
20 Sep 2026H CRB1-0
15 Sep 2026A Londrina0-6
11 Sep 2026A Sport Recife0-2

Juventude

WWLLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
03 Oct 2026H Operario-PR3-0
28 Sep 2026A America Mineiro1-0
19 Sep 2026A Sport Recife1-2
13 Sep 2026H Athletic Club0-2
09 Sep 2026A Criciuma2-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
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Ponte Preta Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
Ponte Preta to WinBet365 guide price · model 25%
10
Check odds @ 10
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
Juventude to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Juventude Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Ponte Preta Over 2.5
40%Juventude Over 2.5
1.71H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Ponte Preta sit at 20% and Juventude sit at 40% with the H2H average at 1.71 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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