Football Stats Hub

Mexico crestMexico
v
Chile crestChile

Friendlies | Wed 07 Oct, 03:30

Mexico v Chile Stats

Data last updated: Tue 06 Oct 2026, 07:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Mexico faces Chile in a friendly where Mexico's recent form shows stronger momentum with eight points from recent matches compared to Chile's three. Mexico's attack averages 1.6 goals per game, supported by a solid defensive record conceding 1.2 goals on average. Chile, while showing attacking intent with a higher over 2.5 goals rate, concedes more frequently, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. This match offers Mexico a chance to assert control early, leveraging their sharper recent performances and tactical discipline to challenge Chile's more open style.

BT4Y best bet

Mexico to Win

  • Mexico has secured 8 points recently, outpacing Chile's 3 points in form.
  • Mexico averages 1.6 goals per match, showing consistent attacking output.
  • Chile concedes 2 goals per game on average, highlighting defensive weaknesses.
  • Mexico's over 2.5 goals rate is 40%, lower than Chile's 75%, suggesting a more controlled game from Mexico.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Mexico to Win with a 70.7% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and balanced attack-defense profile. Mexico's higher points tally and better goal difference underpin this . The price at 1.6 offers positive value given the implied chance of 62.5%. Mexico's ability to create more shots per game and maintain defensive solidity supports the likelihood of a home victory. No data limitations affect this prediction, making it a solid choice based on current team dynamics and statistical trends.

Model Chance70.7% model chance vs 62.5% implied (+8.2 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormMexico 8 points vs Chile 3 points
Strong positive
Goals For/AgainstMexico 1.6/1.2, Chile 1.25/2
Positive
Price Value Edge70.7% model chance vs 62.5% implied (+8.2 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Mexico's recent form and balanced attack-defense combination make them the logical choice to win this friendly. Their ability to maintain defensive discipline while generating quality chances contrasts with Chile's defensive frailties and inconsistent results, tipping the scales in Mexico's favor.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Mexico's consistent recent performances and tactical balance give them a clear edge over Chile, who have struggled defensively and lack recent momentum.”

Key Data Signals

Mexico to Win evidence

Mexico has secured 8 points recently, outpacing Chile's 3 points in form.

Mexico averages 1.6 goals per match, showing consistent attacking output.

Chile concedes 2 goals per game on average, highlighting defensive weaknesses.

Mexico's over 2.5 goals rate is 40%, lower than Chile's 75%, suggesting a more controlled game from Mexico.

What To Watch In The Data

Mexico to Win notes

  • The last five matches show a high average goals rate of 4.4 in head-to-head meetings, indicating an open game with scoring chances for both sides.
  • Chile's tendency for over 2.5 goals matches this trend, but Mexico's more conservative approach may temper the overall goal count.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Mexico1.6
Avg goals scored
Chile1.25
Mexico1.2
Avg goals conceded
Chile2
Mexico60%
BTTS rate
Chile75%
Mexico40%
Over 2.5 goals
Chile75%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 80%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Chile's high over 2.5 goals rate of 75% contrasts with Mexico's more measured 40%, suggesting Chile's matches tend to be more open and higher scoring. Both teams have decent BTTS rates, but Mexico's defensive stability may limit Chile's scoring opportunities, pointing to a moderately open game with potential for goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMexico to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 63% · edge +8.2 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Mexico Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The 70.7% for Mexico to Win sits against roughly 62.5% implied by the current price (+8.2 pts). Mexico have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 3 for Chile.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Mexico

LDDWW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
04 Oct 2026A USA0-3
30 Sep 2026H Peru1-1
27 Sep 2026H Colombia1-1
05 Jun 2026H Serbia5-1
31 May 2026H Australia1-0

Chile

LLWL
Last 51W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 3L
30 Sep 2026A USA2-4
27 Sep 2026A Canada0-1
09 Jun 2026A Congo DR2-1
06 Jun 2026A Portugal1-2
Market aligned with main pickMexico to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 63% · edge +8.2 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Mexico Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Mexico's recent form is stronger, with 8 points compared to Chile's 3, reflecting better consistency and results. Mexico's goal scoring and defensive records support their momentum, while Chile's recent struggles and higher goals conceded suggest vulnerabilities that Mexico can exploit.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Mexico Over 2.5
75%Chile Over 2.5
4.4H2H avg goals
The last five matches show a high average goals rate of 4.4 in head-to-head meetings, indicating an open game with scoring chances for both sides. Chile's tendency for over 2.5 goals matches this trend, but Mexico's more conservative approach may temper the overall goal count.

Loading deeper match data…