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Londrina crestLondrina

Serie B | Wed 07 Oct, 23:30

Avai v Londrina Stats

Data last updated: Tue 06 Oct 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Londrina hosts Avai in a Serie B clash marked by defensive vulnerabilities and recent poor form from both sides. Londrina have failed to win in nine home league matches, conceding heavily with 20 goals in 12 games, while Avai have not won away in four attempts and also struggle defensively. Both teams average one goal per game, highlighting a tactical battle where control and defensive solidity are lacking. The match promises a tense, low-scoring encounter with both sides eager to break their winless streaks under mounting pressure.

BT4Y match pick

Avai Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Londrina have conceded 20 goals in 12 Serie B matches, averaging 1.67 per game.
  • Avai have conceded 11 goals in their last six matches, showing defensive fragility.
  • Both teams average exactly one goal per league match, suggesting low-scoring potential.
  • Londrina are winless in nine home league matches; Avai have not won in four away games.
  • Previous meeting ended 1-1, reinforcing the likelihood of a tight contest.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Avai Win & Under 2.5 Goals as a plausible outcome given both teams' defensive struggles and low scoring rates. Londrina's poor home form and Avai's away difficulties reduce in high-scoring or home-win scenarios. While the are slightly short, the tactical context of cautious play and defensive lapses supports a narrow Avai victory with limited goals. The model advises cautious staking due to the price sensitivity and the close competitive balance.

Defensive FragilityBoth teams concede frequently, increasing chances of goals but limiting high totals
Positive
Low Scoring RateEach team averages 1.0 goal per game, supporting under 2.5 goals
Positive
Recent FormLondrina's home winless run and Avai's away struggles favor a low-scoring Avai win
Positive
Price Sensitivity14.9% model chance vs 16.7% implied (-1.8 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Avai's ability to capitalize on Londrina's defensive lapses, combined with Londrina's ongoing home struggles, makes an Avai win with limited goals a compelling outcome. The low scoring averages and recent form data reinforce the expectation of a tight, tactical match where Avai's sharper finishing could decide the game.

Main risk

That Ponte Preta result proves Londrina can still find attacking rhythm, but it also stands out almost too brightly against the rest of the picture.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and goal total

“This fixture is a classic defensive struggle where Avai's slightly better away resilience and Londrina's home woes set the stage for a narrow away win with few goals scored.”

Key Data Signals

Avai Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Londrina have conceded 20 goals in 12 Serie B matches, averaging 1.67 per game.

Avai have conceded 11 goals in their last six matches, showing defensive fragility.

Both teams average exactly one goal per league match, suggesting low-scoring potential.

Londrina are winless in nine home league matches; Avai have not won in four away games.

What To Watch In The Data

Avai Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.22, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Both teams' recent matches show a trend towards fewer goals, with under 2.5 goals occurring in 60% of Londrina's games and 40% for Avai.
  • This trend suggests a controlled tempo with limited goal opportunities, reinforcing the under 2.5 goals pick.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Avai0.4
Avg goals scored
Londrina1.8
Avai1.6
Avg goals conceded
Londrina1.4
Avai40%
BTTS rate
Londrina40%
Avai40%
Over 2.5 goals
Londrina60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 60% vs implied 55% · edge +5.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 33%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have conceded heavily recently, with Londrina allowing 20 goals in 12 matches and Avai conceding 11 in their last six. Both average exactly one goal per game, making goals at both ends likely. However, the low scoring averages and defensive lapses point to a game with goals but probably under 2.5 total, aligning with the selected bet.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAvai Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 45% vs implied 63% · edge -18.3 pts
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Avai to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The 14.9% for Avai Win & Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 16.7% implied by the current price (-1.8 pts). Both teams score exactly one goal per game in Serie B, but they show severe defensive fragility.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Avai

LLLDL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
03 Oct 2026H Ceara0-1
27 Sep 2026A Criciuma0-3
20 Sep 2026A Goias1-2
15 Sep 2026H Vila Nova1-1
09 Sep 2026A Fortaleza EC0-1

Londrina

LLLWW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
03 Oct 2026H Criciuma0-2
26 Sep 2026A Vila Nova0-2
20 Sep 2026H Fortaleza EC1-2
15 Sep 2026H Ponte Preta6-0
10 Sep 2026A São Bernardo2-1
Market aligned with main pickAvai Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 45% vs implied 63% · edge -18.3 pts
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Load more odds for this section
Avai to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Recent form shows Londrina scoring 1.8 goals but conceding 1.4 per game, while Avai scores 0.4 and concedes 1.6. Londrina's home struggles and Avai's away difficulties reflect in these numbers, supporting a low-scoring game with Avai edging the win. Both teams' under 2.5 goals rates and BTTS percentages at 40% align with the cautious tactical setup.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Avai Over 2.5
60%Londrina Over 2.5
2.22H2H avg goals
Over the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.22, indicating moderate scoring. Both teams' recent matches show a trend towards fewer goals, with under 2.5 goals occurring in 60% of Londrina's games and 40% for Avai. This trend suggests a controlled tempo with limited goal opportunities, reinforcing the under 2.5 goals pick.

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