Football Stats Hub

Excelsior crestExcelsior
v
PSV Eindhoven crestPSV Eindhoven

Eredivisie | Sat 15 Aug, 19:00

Excelsior v PSV Eindhoven Stats

Data last updated: Fri 14 Aug 2026, 07:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Excelsior hosts PSV Eindhoven in an Eredivisie clash where attacking intent is clear from both sides. Excelsior, currently top of the table, have started strongly with a solid defensive record but an aggressive offensive approach. PSV, sitting tenth, have shown vulnerability at the back but maintain a high shot volume and attacking creativity. Both teams' recent matches have featured multiple goals, setting the stage for an open game with potential for a high-scoring encounter under lively conditions.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Excelsior have scored 4 goals and conceded none in recent form, with a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate.
  • PSV Eindhoven have also featured in matches with 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, despite conceding 2 goals.
  • Both teams average high shots per game: Excelsior 18 and PSV 21, indicating attacking pressure.
  • H2H meetings average 4.7 goals per game over the last 10 matches, supporting a high goal count.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a strong candidate with a 58% chance, slightly above the market's implied 54.6%, indicating positive value. Both teams have demonstrated attacking potency and defensive vulnerabilities, reflected in their recent form and head-to-head goal averages. Excelsior's perfect Over 2.5 record and PSV's high shot volume suggest sustained offensive pressure. The data quality is solid for both sides, reinforcing in the prediction without price warnings.

Model Chance58%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance54.6%
Neutral
Recent Over 2.5 Rates100% both teams
Strong positive
H2H Average Goals4.7 goals per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as Excelsior's strong start meets PSV's offensive creativity. The high volume of shots and recent goal-rich encounters suggest Over 3.5 Goals is a plausible outcome, supported by both teams' tendency to concede and score freely early in the season.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“This fixture promises a lively attacking display with both sides showing little defensive rigidity so far. The statistical trends and player involvement point towards a match with multiple goal-scoring chances and a high final tally.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Excelsior have scored 4 goals and conceded none in recent form, with a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate.

PSV Eindhoven have also featured in matches with 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, despite conceding 2 goals.

Both teams average high shots per game: Excelsior 18 and PSV 21, indicating attacking pressure.

H2H meetings average 4.7 goals per game over the last 10 matches, supporting a high goal count.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 4.7, indicating a historical trend towards high-scoring games.
  • This sample suggests a fast tempo and open play style, with both teams contributing to goal opportunities, supporting the likelihood of Over 2.5 and by extension Over 3.5 Goals in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Excelsior8
Avg corners for
PSV Eindhoven9
Excelsior13
Avg total corners
PSV Eindhoven9
Excelsior0
Avg yellow cards
PSV Eindhoven1
Excelsior18
Avg shots
PSV Eindhoven21
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
The match is expected to feature sustained attacking pressure, with Excelsior averaging 8 corners and PSV 9, indicating frequent wide play and set-piece opportunities. Shot volumes are high, with Excelsior averaging 18 shots and PSV 21, including significant shots on target. Discipline is moderate, with PSV averaging one yellow card per game and Excelsior none, suggesting a competitive but not overly aggressive contest.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Eredivisie analysiscorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Excelsior4
Avg goals scored
PSV Eindhoven2
Excelsior0
Avg goals conceded
PSV Eindhoven2
Excelsior0%
BTTS rate
PSV Eindhoven100%
Excelsior100%
Over 2.5 goals
PSV Eindhoven100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 55% · edge +3.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Both teams have demonstrated strong attacking output with Excelsior scoring 4 goals and PSV 2 in recent matches, while Excelsior has kept clean sheets and PSV has conceded twice. Excelsior's 0% BTTS rate contrasts with PSV's 100%, indicating PSV's matches often see both teams scoring. The high average goals in their meetings (4.7) underline the likelihood of a high-scoring game.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 74% · edge +4.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Excelsior Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Excelsior to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBet365 guide price · model 20%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
PSV Eindhoven Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
PSV Eindhoven to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced around 1.83, reflecting a modest as the model's 58% chance slightly exceeds the implied 54.6%. This suggests the market is fairly efficient but leans towards a positive expectation for goals, making it a reasonable selection without requiring movement.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Excelsior

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
07 Aug 2026A Cambuur4-0

PSV Eindhoven

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
08 Aug 2026H Fortuna Sittard2-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Excelsior Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Excelsior to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 20%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
PSV Eindhoven Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
PSV Eindhoven to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Recent form data shows Excelsior with 3 points from a match featuring 4 goals scored and none conceded, maintaining a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate. PSV has 1 point with 2 goals scored and 2 conceded, also with a 100% Over 2.5 rate. This mutual trend towards high-scoring matches early in the season supports the Over 3.5 Goals selection.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Excelsior wins
0Draws
10PSV Eindhoven wins
10 Jan 2026PSV Eindhoven v Excelsior5-1
27 Sep 2025Excelsior v PSV Eindhoven1-2
14 Jan 2025PSV Eindhoven v Excelsior5-4
02 Apr 2024Excelsior v PSV Eindhoven0-2
13 Jan 2024PSV Eindhoven v Excelsior3-1
08 Apr 2023PSV Eindhoven v Excelsior4-0
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 74% · edge +4.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Excelsior to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBet365 guide price · model 20%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
PSV Eindhoven to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The last 10 meetings between Excelsior and PSV have averaged 4.7 goals per game, a clear indicator of open and attacking encounters. This strong historical trend supports expectations for a high-scoring match, with both teams historically contributing to the goal tally rather than defensive stalemates.
Season team stats

Eredivisie

Excelsior1
Played
PSV Eindhoven1
Excelsior4
Avg goals for
PSV Eindhoven2
Excelsior0
Avg goals against
PSV Eindhoven2
Excelsior1
Clean sheets
PSV Eindhoven0
Best odds for this sectionExcelsior Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Excelsior to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
PSV Eindhoven Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
PSV Eindhoven to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Season-long statistics reveal both teams favor offensive play, with high average shots and goals in matches. Excelsior's defensive solidity contrasts with PSV's more porous backline, contributing to a dynamic where goals are likely from both sides. The consistent Over 2.5 Goals rates for both teams reinforce the expectation of a high-scoring fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Excelsior311004
10PSV Eindhoven110100
Excelsior currently leads the Eredivisie, reflecting strong performances and , while PSV sits mid-table at tenth. The standings suggest Excelsior's motivation to maintain top position and PSV's need to improve results, potentially encouraging attacking play from both sides to secure points.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Excelsior Over 2.5
100%PSV Eindhoven Over 2.5
4.7H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 4.7, indicating a historical trend towards high-scoring games. This sample suggests a fast tempo and open play style, with both teams contributing to goal opportunities, supporting the likelihood of Over 2.5 and by extension Over 3.5 Goals in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

More stats pages

Telstar v Sparta RotterdamEredivisie · Fri 14 Aug 19:00Willem II v NEC NijmegenEredivisie · Sat 15 Aug 15:30Utrecht v AZ AlkmaarEredivisie · Sat 15 Aug 17:45Fortuna Sittard v CambuurEredivisie · Sat 15 Aug 20:00

Competition and hubs

Eredivisie hubmore Eredivisie analysiscorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre