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Croatia crestCroatia
v
Belgium crestBelgium

Friendlies | Tue 02 Jun, 17:00

Croatia v Belgium Stats

Data last updated: Mon 01 Jun 2026, 03:50 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Croatia and Belgium face off in a high-stakes friendly that belies its non-competitive label, as both sides fine-tune tactics and assess squad depth ahead of the World Cup. Croatia seeks to rebound from a 3-1 loss to Brazil, balancing rotation with defensive solidity, while Belgium arrives unbeaten in six, boasting a potent attack under Rudi Garcia. Both teams prioritize fitness and cohesion, setting the stage for an open, competitive encounter where scoring opportunities are expected at both ends, reflecting their recent offensive trends and tactical approaches.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Belgium averages 4 goals per match in last six fixtures, highlighting attacking potency.
  • Croatia conceded 3 goals vs Brazil but scored themselves, showing offensive threat despite defensive gaps.
  • Both teams have 100% BTTS rate in recent matches, indicating consistent mutual scoring.
  • Historical head-to-heads show balanced scoring with close matches and multiple draws.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance to both teams scoring, supported by Belgium's prolific attack averaging four goals per game in recent matches and Croatia's consistent scoring in five of their last six fixtures. Defensive rotations and vulnerabilities, especially for Croatia, increase the likelihood of goals at both ends. The at 1.65 reflect fair value with a positive edge of 15.4%, making this a strong tactical and statistical pick. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Belgium recent scoring rate4 goals per match
Strong positive
Croatia scoring consistency5 of last 6 matches with goals
Strong positive
Defensive rotation impactCroatia conceded 3 vs Brazil
Positive
Odds value edge+15.4%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams possess strong attacking line-ups and have shown a tendency to concede, making a mutual scoring outcome likely. Belgium's recent goal-scoring form combined with Croatia's offensive resilience suggests a lively match where both sides find the net. This bet aligns well with the tactical context and recent performances.

Main risk

Extensive squad rotation and tactical substitutions during the friendly could disrupt attacking rhythm and reduce goal-scoring chances late in the match.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS market rationale

“Belgium's attacking depth and Croatia's occasional defensive lapses set the stage for a fixture where both sides are expected to score. The balance of offensive quality and tactical adjustments makes BTTS a compelling choice.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Belgium averages 4 goals per match in last six fixtures, highlighting attacking potency.

Croatia conceded 3 goals vs Brazil but scored themselves, showing offensive threat despite defensive gaps.

Both teams have 100% BTTS rate in recent matches, indicating consistent mutual scoring.

Historical head-to-heads show balanced scoring with close matches and multiple draws.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last six matches, Belgium's games averaged four goals per match, while Croatia's last six fixtures featured at least three goals in five games.
  • Historical head-to-heads show low scoring averages but balanced goal distribution.
  • These trends suggest a high-tempo game with multiple scoring opportunities, supporting an Over 2.5 goals environment and reinforcing the BTTS selection.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Croatia1.5
Avg goals scored
Belgium3
Croatia2
Avg goals conceded
Belgium1.5
Croatia100%
BTTS rate
Belgium100%
Croatia100%
Over 2.5 goals
Belgium50%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 60% · edge +16.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both Croatia and Belgium have demonstrated strong offensive outputs recently, with Belgium averaging four goals per match in their last six and Croatia scoring in five of six games. Both teams also maintain a 100% BTTS rate in recent fixtures, underscoring the likelihood of goals at both ends. Tactical openness and defensive rotations further enhance scoring chances.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 60% · edge +16.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Belgium to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Belgium Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Croatia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Croatia to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
The Both Teams to Score market is priced at 1.65, reflecting a 60.6% implied probability. The model's 76% chance indicates a clear value opportunity, supported by recent high-scoring trends and attacking strengths on both sides. This pricing offers a positive expected value with no major warning flags, making it a sound betting angle.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Croatia2
Avg corners for
Belgium4
Croatia2
Avg total corners
Belgium8.5
Croatia0
Avg yellow cards
Belgium1.5
Croatia5
Avg shots
Belgium13
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 29% vs implied 50% · edge -21 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Belgium averages 13 shots per game with 6 on target, indicating sustained attacking pressure and quality chances. Croatia's lower shot volume contrasts with their high shot accuracy and active defensive engagement. Belgium's 1.5 yellow cards per match suggest moderate discipline issues, while Croatia's clean disciplinary record points to a more controlled approach. Corner averages are modest but reflect balanced territorial exchanges.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Croatia

LW
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
01 Apr 2026A Brazil1-3
26 Mar 2026A Colombia2-1

Belgium

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
01 Apr 2026A Mexico1-1
28 Mar 2026A USA5-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 74% · edge +10 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Belgium to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Belgium Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Croatia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Croatia to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Recent form data shows Belgium scoring an average of 3 goals per match with a 100% BTTS rate, reflecting their offensive consistency. Croatia, despite conceding more, also maintains a 100% BTTS rate and has seen all recent matches exceed 2.5 goals. Both teams' recent matches have been open and goal-rich, supporting expectations for mutual scoring in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Croatia wins
1Draws
1Belgium wins
01 Dec 2022Croatia v Belgium0-0
06 Jun 2021Belgium v Croatia1-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 60% · edge +16.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Belgium to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Croatia to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
The two recent head-to-head meetings have been low scoring, averaging 0.5 goals per game, which contrasts with their recent form. However, the small sample size and the friendly context reduce the weight of this data. Current attacking form and tactical openness are more relevant indicators for this fixture's scoring potential.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Friendlies

Croatia2
Played
Belgium2
Croatia1.5
Avg goals for
Belgium3
Croatia2
Avg goals against
Belgium1.5
Croatia0
Clean sheets
Belgium0
Best odds for this sectionBelgium to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 39% · edge +19.9 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Load more odds for this section
Belgium Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Croatia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Croatia to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Seasonal statistics highlight Belgium's prolific attack with 29 goals in eight qualifiers, averaging over three goals per game. Croatia's qualification campaign was strong offensively but showed defensive vulnerabilities, conceding multiple goals in warmups. Both teams' season-long scoring and conceding patterns align with a high likelihood of both teams scoring in this friendly.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Croatia Over 2.5
50%Belgium Over 2.5
0.5H2H avg goals
Over the last six matches, Belgium's games averaged four goals per match, while Croatia's last six fixtures featured at least three goals in five games. Historical head-to-heads show low scoring averages but balanced goal distribution. These trends suggest a high-tempo game with multiple scoring opportunities, supporting an Over 2.5 goals environment and reinforcing the BTTS selection.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Croatia v Belgium prediction

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