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Albania crestAlbania
v
Belarus crestBelarus

UEFA Nations League | Sat 26 Sep, 19:45

Albania v Belarus Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 03:05 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Albania face Belarus in UEFA Nations League on Sat 26 Sep, 19:45. Albania begin their Nations League campaign with an uncomfortable contrast between historical reassurance and immediate form. Belarus's unbeaten six-match run under Goncharenko contrasts sharply with Albania's five straight defeats and scoring woes. Midfield Absences Add to Maran’s Puzzle

BT4Y best bet

Belarus Asian Handicap +1

  • At 9/10, Belarus Asian Handicap +1 implies roughly 53%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 58%.
  • Etrit Berisha's return after two years away from the national team could therefore result in an 82nd cap.
  • Albania sit 1 in the table, while Belarus sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 58% for Belarus Asian Handicap +1 sits against roughly 53% implied by the current price. Albania sit 1 in the table, while Belarus sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read. Etrit Berisha's return after two years away from the national team could therefore result in an 82nd cap.

Model chance vs price58% model chance against roughly 53% implied
Neutral
Albania sit 1 in the table, while Belarus sit 2.Visible data support
Positive
Etrit Berisha's return after two years away from the.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Albania Win is the preferred angle because etrit Berisha's return after two years away from the national team could therefore result in an 82nd cap. Albania sit 1 in the table, while Belarus sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read. Armando Broja's omission further changes Maran's options, although Cristian Shpendi arrives with considerable club momentum after scoring six goals in five Serie B appearances.

Main risk

Armando Broja's omission further changes Maran's options, although Cristian Shpendi arrives with considerable club momentum after scoring six goals in five Serie B appearances.

Key Data Signals

Belarus Asian Handicap +1 evidence

Etrit Berisha's return after two years away from the national team could therefore result in an 82nd cap.

Albania sit 1 in the table, while Belarus sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Belarus Asian Handicap +1 notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAlbania to WinBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 64% · edge -5.8 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Albania Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.23
    Check odds @ 1.23
    Albania to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Albania-
    Avg goals scored
    Belarus-
    Albania-
    Avg goals conceded
    Belarus-
    Albania-
    BTTS rate
    Belarus-
    Albania-
    Over 2.5 goals
    Belarus-
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 46% · edge +12.6 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Albania

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Albania yet.

    Belarus

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Belarus yet.

    Market aligned with main pickAlbania to WinBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 64% · edge -5.8 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 83%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Albania Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.23
    Check odds @ 1.23
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    -Albania Over 2.5
    -Belarus Over 2.5
    3.5H2H avg goals
    Etrit Berisha's return after two years away from the national team could therefore result in an 82nd cap.

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