Football Stats Hub

Flamengo crestFlamengo
v
Palmeiras crestPalmeiras

Serie A | Sun 24 May, 01:00

Flamengo v Palmeiras Stats

Data last updated: Sun 07 Jun 2026, 15:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Flamengo face Palmeiras in Serie A on Sun 24 May, 01:00. Defensive Metrics: Total League Goals Conceded Flamengo are exceptional at the Maracana, securing nine victories across their previous ten home fixtures and remaining completely undefeated at home throughout the entire year. Abel Ferreira’s team rarely lose control emotionally, even when results wobble.

BT4Y best bet

Either a home victory, an away victory, or a draw, making it a simple three-way selection protocol

  • At 3/4, Flamengo Win implies roughly 57%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 59%.
  • Palmeiras possess the tightest defensive infrastructure in the division, shipping a mere 13 goals all season.
  • Flamengo have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 9 for Palmeiras.
  • Flamengo have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Flamengo Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Flamengo sit 2 in the table, while Palmeiras sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 59% for Flamengo Win sits against roughly 57% implied by the current price. Flamengo have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 9 for Palmeiras. Palmeiras possess the tightest defensive infrastructure in the division, shipping a mere that scoring level all season.

Model chance vs price59% model chance against roughly 57% implied
Neutral
Flamengo have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points.Visible data support
Positive
Flamengo have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Palmeiras possess the tightest defensive infrastructure in the division.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Flamengo Win is the preferred angle because palmeiras possess the tightest defensive infrastructure in the division, shipping a mere that scoring level all season. Flamengo have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 9 for Palmeiras. For now, however, the Maracana remains their superpower — and Palmeiras are walking directly into it.

Main risk

For now, however, the Maracana remains their superpower — and Palmeiras are walking directly into it.

Key Data Signals

Flamengo Win evidence

Palmeiras possess the tightest defensive infrastructure in the division, shipping a mere 13 goals all season.

Flamengo have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 9 for Palmeiras.

Flamengo have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Flamengo Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Flamengo sit 2 in the table, while Palmeiras sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Flamengo Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Flamengo2
    Avg goals scored
    Palmeiras1
    Flamengo0.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Palmeiras0.6
    Flamengo40%
    BTTS rate
    Palmeiras60%
    Flamengo40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Palmeiras0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 51% · edge +15.4 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 37%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more Serie A analysisFlamengo v Palmeiras predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 56% · edge +3.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 68%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Flamengo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Flamengo to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Flamengo5
    Avg corners for
    Palmeiras9
    Flamengo9.8
    Avg total corners
    Palmeiras14.2
    Flamengo2.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Palmeiras2
    Flamengo14.6
    Avg shots
    Palmeiras14.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 42% · edge +25.9 pts
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 5.5 CardsBetUK guide price
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Flamengo

    DWDWW
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 3D 1L
    17 May 2026A Atletico Paranaense1-1
    10 May 2026A Gremio1-0
    03 May 2026H Vasco DA Gama2-2
    27 Apr 2026A Atletico-MG4-0
    19 Apr 2026H Bahia2-0

    Palmeiras

    DDDWW
    Last 52W 3D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 4D 0L
    17 May 2026H Cruzeiro1-1
    10 May 2026A Remo1-1
    02 May 2026H Santos1-1
    26 Apr 2026A RB Bragantino1-0
    19 Apr 2026H Atletico Paranaense1-0
    Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 56% · edge +3.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Flamengo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Flamengo wins
    3Draws
    2Palmeiras wins
    29 Nov 2025Palmeiras v Flamengo0-1
    19 Oct 2025Flamengo v Palmeiras3-2
    25 May 2025Palmeiras v Flamengo0-2
    11 Aug 2024Flamengo v Palmeiras1-1
    08 Aug 2024Palmeiras v Flamengo1-0
    01 Aug 2024Flamengo v Palmeiras2-0
    Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 56% · edge +3.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Flamengo to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Flamengo17
    Played
    Palmeiras18
    Flamengo1.8
    Avg goals for
    Palmeiras1.7
    Flamengo0.9
    Avg goals against
    Palmeiras0.7
    Flamengo7
    Clean sheets
    Palmeiras7
    Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 56% · edge +3.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Flamengo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Season data supports Flamengo to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Palmeiras4118125117
    2Flamengo3417104315
    Flamengo sit in position 2, while Palmeiras sit in position 1, so table pressure belongs in the Flamengo Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Flamengo Over 2.5
    0%Palmeiras Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Flamengo sit at 40% and Palmeiras sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Flamengo v Palmeiras prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

    More stats pages

    Browse football stats pages

    Open the main stats hub for the latest fixture dashboards.

    Competition and hubs

    Serie A hubmore Serie A analysisFlamengo v Palmeiras predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hub

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre