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Penarol crestPenarol
v
Santa Fe crestSanta Fe

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Thu 28 May, 01:30

Penarol v Santa Fe Stats

Data last updated: Fri 19 Jun 2026, 09:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Penarol face Santa Fe in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thu 28 May, 01:30. Peñarol have drawn three of their five group stage encounters, underscoring a habit of competitive but ultimately level-pegging continental performances. Their problem has been an inability to convert decent passages into victories.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams To Score – Yes The statistical profile of both clubs indicates a high propensity for open, end-to-end encounters

  • At 11/10, Both Teams To Score implies roughly 48%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 76%.
  • With Santa Fe witnessing both teams scoring in seventy-four percent of matches, tight scorelines are common.
  • Penarol show a 80% BTTS rate and Santa Fe show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Penarol average 0.8 goals scored and Santa Fe average 1, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 76% for Both Teams To Score sits against roughly 48% implied by the current price. Penarol show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Santa Fe show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. With Santa Fe witnessing both teams scoring in seventy-four percent of matches, tight scorelines are common.

Model chance vs price76% model chance against roughly 48% implied
Strong positive
Penarol show a 80% BTTS rate and Santa Fe show.Visible data support
Positive
Penarol average 0.8 goals scored and Santa Fe average 1.Visible data support
Positive
With Santa Fe witnessing both teams scoring in seventy-four.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because with Santa Fe witnessing both teams scoring in seventy-four percent of matches, tight scorelines are common. Penarol show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Santa Fe show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Those numbers reveal two teams capable of attacking fluently but still vulnerable without the ball.

Main risk

Those numbers reveal two teams capable of attacking fluently but still vulnerable without the ball.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score evidence

With Santa Fe witnessing both teams scoring in seventy-four percent of matches, tight scorelines are common.

Penarol show a 80% BTTS rate and Santa Fe show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Penarol average 0.8 goals scored and Santa Fe average 1, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Penarol3
Avg corners for
Santa Fe3.8
Penarol6.6
Avg total corners
Santa Fe8.6
Penarol2.8
Avg yellow cards
Santa Fe3.2
Penarol11.6
Avg shots
Santa Fe10.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 52% · edge +22.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 36%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Penarol0.8
Avg goals scored
Santa Fe1
Penarol1.4
Avg goals conceded
Santa Fe1.4
Penarol80%
BTTS rate
Santa Fe80%
Penarol20%
Over 2.5 goals
Santa Fe40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 25% · edge +51 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 25% · edge +51 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
Load more odds for this section
Santa Fe to WinBetfred guide price · model 51%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Santa Fe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Penarol

DDLLD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 2L
22 May 2026H Corinthians1-1
07 May 2026A Platense1-1
01 May 2026A Corinthians0-2
17 Apr 2026H Platense1-2
10 Apr 2026A Santa Fe1-1

Santa Fe

WDLLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 2L
20 May 2026H Platense2-1
07 May 2026H Corinthians1-1
29 Apr 2026A Platense1-2
16 Apr 2026A Corinthians0-2
10 Apr 2026H Penarol1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 43% · edge +34.5 pts
2.31
Check odds @ 2.31
Load more odds for this section
Santa Fe to WinBetfred guide price · model 51%
6
Check odds @ 6
Santa Fe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Penarol Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Penarol to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Penarol wins
1Draws
0Santa Fe wins
10 Apr 2026Santa Fe v Penarol1-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 25% · edge +51 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
Load more odds for this section
Santa Fe to WinBetfred guide price · model 51%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Penarol to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Penarol6
Played
Santa Fe6
Penarol0.7
Avg goals for
Santa Fe1
Penarol1.3
Avg goals against
Santa Fe1.2
Penarol0
Clean sheets
Santa Fe1
Best odds for this sectionSanta Fe to WinBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 17% · edge +34.2 pts
6
Check odds @ 6
Load more odds for this section
Santa Fe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Penarol Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Penarol to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Season data supports Santa Fe to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Santa Fe86222-1
4Penarol36033-4
CONMEBOL Libertadores standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Penarol Over 2.5
40%Santa Fe Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Penarol sit at 20% and Santa Fe sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Penarol v Santa Fe prediction

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Next step

Betting context

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