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Paraguay crestParaguay
v
France crestFrance

World Cup | Sat 04 Jul, 22:00

Paraguay v France Stats

Data last updated: Mon 17 Aug 2026, 04:01 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Paraguay face France in World Cup on Sat 04 Jul, 22:00. France won Group I with three victories from three, scoring 10 goals and conceding only twice. Market snapshot showing illustrative pricing details built directly from explicit international match form.

BT4Y best bet

Requiring the exact prediction of the final baseline match score at the concluding whistle

  • At 5/1, Requiring the exact prediction of the final baseline match score at the concluding whistle implies roughly 17%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • France are an incredible attacking force, scoring 13 goals across four tournament fixtures while clearing this defensive line effortlessly.
  • France have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 5 for Paraguay.
  • France have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Requiring the exact prediction of the final baseline match score at the concluding whistle angle more than a raw possession.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Requiring the exact prediction of the final baseline match score at the concluding whistle sits against roughly 17% implied by the current price. France have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 5 for Paraguay. France are an incredible attacking force, scoring 13 goals across four tournament fixtures while clearing this defensive line effortlessly.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 17% implied
Positive
France have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points.Visible data support
Positive
France have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
France are an incredible attacking force, scoring 13 goals.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Paraguay Win is the preferred angle because france are an incredible attacking force, scoring that scoring level across four tournament fixtures while clearing this defensive line effortlessly. France have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 5 for Paraguay. They may not arrive with the same attacking weapons, but they have already shown they can drag a heavyweight into uncomfortable territory.

Main risk

They may not arrive with the same attacking weapons, but they have already shown they can drag a heavyweight into uncomfortable territory.

Key Data Signals

Requiring the exact prediction of the final baseline match score at the concluding whistle evidence

France are an incredible attacking force, scoring 13 goals across four tournament fixtures while clearing this defensive line.

France have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 5 for Paraguay.

France have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Paraguay Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Requiring the exact prediction of the final baseline match score at the concluding whistle notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Paraguay3.5
    Avg corners for
    France6
    Paraguay13
    Avg total corners
    France8.75
    Paraguay3.5
    Avg yellow cards
    France0.25
    Paraguay8
    Avg shots
    France18.25
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
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    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 69%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Paraguay0.75
    Avg goals scored
    France3.25
    Paraguay1.25
    Avg goals conceded
    France0.5
    Paraguay50%
    BTTS rate
    France50%
    Paraguay25%
    Over 2.5 goals
    France100%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 85% vs implied 82% · edge +3.2 pts
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 1.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 25% for Paraguay and 100% for France, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickParaguay to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 21% vs implied 6% · edge +15 pts
    17
    Check odds @ 17
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 69%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Paraguay to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Paraguay

    DDWL
    Last 51W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 1L
    29 Jun 2026A Germany1-1
    26 Jun 2026H Australia0-0
    20 Jun 2026A Türkiye1-0
    13 Jun 2026A USA1-4

    France

    WWWW
    Last 54W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 0D 0L
    30 Jun 2026H Sweden3-0
    26 Jun 2026A Norway4-1
    22 Jun 2026H Iraq3-0
    16 Jun 2026H Senegal3-1
    Market aligned with main pickParaguay to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 21% vs implied 6% · edge +15 pts
    17
    Check odds @ 17
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 35%
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Paraguay wins
    0Draws
    1France wins
    02 Jun 2017France v Paraguay5-0
    Market aligned with main pickParaguay to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 21% vs implied 6% · edge +15 pts
    17
    Check odds @ 17
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Paraguay to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Paraguay5
    Played
    France8
    Paraguay0.8
    Avg goals for
    France2.5
    Paraguay1.2
    Avg goals against
    France1.3
    Paraguay2
    Clean sheets
    France4
    Market aligned with main pickParaguay to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 21% vs implied 6% · edge +15 pts
    17
    Check odds @ 17
    Season data supports Paraguay to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3Paraguay43111-2
    1France933008
    7Paraguay43111-2
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    25%Paraguay Over 2.5
    100%France Over 2.5
    5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Paraguay sit at 25% and France sit at 100% with the H2H average at 5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.