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Netherlands crestNetherlands
v
Serbia crestSerbia

UEFA Nations League | Sun 04 Oct, 19:45

Netherlands v Serbia Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 12:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Netherlands face Serbia in UEFA Nations League on Sun 04 Oct, 19:45. Backing Netherlands to win with both teams scoring fits their strong Nations League form and defensive vulnerability. Serbia's five consecutive defeats heighten the chance of multiple Dutch goals, though the exact score bet carries risk if the margin changes.

BT4Y best bet

Netherlands to win and Both Teams to Score YES

  • At 9/5, Netherlands to win and Both Teams to Score YES implies roughly 36%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 48%.
  • Netherlands hold the stronger winning edge, while Serbia still offer enough threat for BTTS.
  • Netherlands need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Netherlands on 5 and Serbia on 0.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 100% for Netherlands and 67% for Serbia.
  • Netherlands to win and Both Teams to Score YES needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.67 for Netherlands and 0.67 for Serbia are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 48% for Netherlands to win and Both Teams to Score YES sits against roughly 36% implied by the current price. Netherlands need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Netherlands on 5 and Serbia on 0. Netherlands hold the stronger winning edge, while Serbia still offer enough threat for BTTS.

Model chance vs price48% model chance against roughly 36% implied
Positive
Netherlands need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Netherlands hold the stronger winning edge, while Serbia still.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Netherlands Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because netherlands hold the stronger winning edge, while Serbia still offer enough threat for BTTS. Netherlands need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Netherlands on 5 and Serbia on 0. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Netherlands to win and Both Teams to Score YES evidence

Netherlands hold the stronger winning edge, while Serbia still offer enough threat for BTTS.

Netherlands need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Netherlands on 5 and Serbia on 0.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 100% for Netherlands and 67% for Serbia.

Netherlands Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.67 for Netherlands and 0.67 for Serbia are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Netherlands to win and Both Teams to Score YES notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Netherlands1.67
Avg goals scored
Serbia0.67
Netherlands1.33
Avg goals conceded
Serbia2
Netherlands100%
BTTS rate
Serbia67%
Netherlands67%
Over 2.5 goals
Serbia67%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 85%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Nations League analysisNetherlands v Serbia predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNetherlands Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 89% · edge -10.5 pts
1.13
Check odds @ 1.13
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Netherlands to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Netherlands Draw No Bet is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Netherlands

DWD
Last 51W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 0L
01 Oct 2026A Greece2-2
27 Sep 2026A Serbia2-1
24 Sep 2026H Germany1-1

Serbia

LLL
Last 50W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 3L
01 Oct 2026A Germany0-2
27 Sep 2026H Netherlands1-2
24 Sep 2026H Greece1-2
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 86% vs implied 98% · edge -12 pts
1.02
Check odds @ 1.02
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Netherlands Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.13
Check odds @ 1.13
Netherlands to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

67%Netherlands Over 2.5
67%Serbia Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Netherlands sit at 67% and Serbia sit at 67% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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