Football Stats Hub

Malta crestMalta
v
Andorra crestAndorra

UEFA Nations League | Sun 04 Oct, 17:00

Malta v Andorra Stats

Data last updated: Sat 03 Oct 2026, 08:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Andorra and Malta meet in a UEFA Nations League fixture marked by both teams' limited attacking output and recent low-scoring encounters. Andorra's offensive struggles are compounded by the absence of key experienced players, while Malta, unbeaten in six meetings against Andorra, have shown a modest but more consistent ability to score. The tactical battle is expected to focus on defensive solidity and efficiency, with both sides likely to prioritize cautious play given their historical scoring difficulties and the importance of a narrow margin in this contest.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 67%, above the 58% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Andorra scored only 2 goals in their last 7 matches, with 6 scoreless games.
  • Malta are unbeaten in 6 meetings against Andorra, including two clean sheets in 2024.
  • Recent head-to-head matches produced just one goal total, supporting low scoring.
  • Malta scored 5 goals in last 5 matches, outperforming Andorra's 2 goals.
Price warning

Under 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 67% while the model sits nearer 58% (-8.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 2.5.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model identifies Under 2.5 Goals as the most plausible outcome given the teams' recent scoring records and historical head-to-head trends. Andorra's persistent scoring drought and Malta's modest goal returns align with a low-scoring match scenario. Despite the market price being short with a negative , the football context supports this selection as a cautious, football-led pick. Reduced staking is advised due to the price sensitivity, with improvements expected from price drift or updated team news.

Andorra's scoring drought2 goals in 7 matches
Strong positive
Malta's recent goal returns5 goals in last 5 matches
Positive
Head-to-head low scoring1 goal in last 2 meetings
Strong positive
Market price vs model chance58.4% model chance vs 66.7% implied (-8.3 pts)
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is the most credible outcome given Andorra's ongoing offensive struggles and Malta's ability to restrict chances in this fixture. The tactical emphasis on defensive organization and historical low-scoring matches between these teams make a cautious, low-goal game likely.

Main risk

It offered some relief, but the response was a 3-0 defeat away to Kosovo four days later.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome

“This fixture is shaped by two teams with limited attacking threat and a history of tight scorelines, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical choice despite the short price.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Andorra scored only 2 goals in their last 7 matches, with 6 scoreless games.

Malta are unbeaten in 6 meetings against Andorra, including two clean sheets in 2024.

Recent head-to-head matches produced just one goal total, supporting low scoring.

Malta scored 5 goals in last 5 matches, outperforming Andorra's 2 goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last five matches between these teams and recent fixtures show a strong trend towards low goal totals, with an average of 1.6 goals per game in head-to-head meetings.
  • This trend reflects a slow tempo and defensive solidity, reinforcing the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Malta1.5
Avg goals scored
Andorra0.5
Malta1
Avg goals conceded
Andorra1
Malta100%
BTTS rate
Andorra50%
Malta50%
Over 2.5 goals
Andorra50%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 67% · edge -8.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 29%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Both teams have shown limited scoring ability recently, with Andorra scoring only twice in seven matches and Malta five in five. Historical head-to-head matches produced just one goal total, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring game with BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals as plausible outcomes.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Nations League analysisfull betting preview for Malta v Andorrafootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Andorra Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Malta to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Malta Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Andorra to WinBetfred guide price · model 17%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The 58.4% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 66.7% implied by the current price (-8.3 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 50% for Malta and 50% for Andorra, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Malta's recent scoring form and history of narrow wins against Andorra support a 0-1 victory prediction.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Malta

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
01 Oct 2026H Gibraltar1-1
24 Sep 2026A Andorra2-1

Andorra

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
27 Sep 2026A Gibraltar0-0
24 Sep 2026H Malta1-2
Best odds for this sectionAndorra Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +13 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 83%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Malta to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Malta Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Andorra to WinBetfred guide price · model 17%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Recent form data shows Malta scoring 1.5 goals per game with a 50% rate of Over 2.5 Goals matches, while Andorra scores 0.5 goals per game with the same Over 2.5 rate. Malta's better scoring consistency contrasts with Andorra's offensive drought, supporting a cautious approach and the Under 2.5 Goals selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Malta Over 2.5
50%Andorra Over 2.5
1.6H2H avg goals
The last five matches between these teams and recent fixtures show a strong trend towards low goal totals, with an average of 1.6 goals per game in head-to-head meetings. This trend reflects a slow tempo and defensive solidity, reinforcing the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this match.

Loading deeper match data…