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Malta crestMalta
v
Andorra crestAndorra

UEFA Nations League | Sun 04 Oct, 17:00

Malta v Andorra Stats

Data last updated: Mon 26 Oct 2026, 15:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Malta face Andorra in UEFA Nations League on Sun 04 Oct, 17:00. Malta welcome Andorra to Ta' Qali National Stadium on Sunday looking to maintain their unbeaten start to this Nations League campaign and preserve a commanding record in this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Is cautious given Malta’s modest scoring average and Andorra’s recent goal against them

  • At 5/1, Is cautious given Malta’s modest scoring average and Andorra’s recent goal against them implies roughly 17%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 32%.
  • Their most recent meeting came only a fortnight ago, when Malta won 2-1 away from home.
  • Malta have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 1 for Andorra.
  • Malta have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Is cautious given Malta’s modest scoring average and Andorra’s recent goal against them angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Malta sit 1 in the table, while Andorra sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 32% for Is cautious given Malta’s modest scoring average and Andorra’s recent goal against them sits against roughly 17% implied by the current price. Malta have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 1 for Andorra. Their most recent meeting came only a fortnight ago, when Malta won 2-1 away from home.

Model chance vs price32% model chance against roughly 17% implied
Strong positive
Malta have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points.Visible data support
Positive
Malta have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Their most recent meeting came only a fortnight ago.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Malta Win is the preferred angle because their most recent meeting came only a fortnight ago, when Malta won 2-1 away from home. Malta have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 1 for Andorra. Andorra’s greater concern is at the other end.

Main risk

Andorra’s greater concern is at the other end.

Key Data Signals

Is cautious given Malta’s modest scoring average and Andorra’s recent goal against them evidence

Their most recent meeting came only a fortnight ago, when Malta won 2-1 away from home.

Malta have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 1 for Andorra.

Malta have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Malta Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Malta sit 1 in the table, while Andorra sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Is cautious given Malta’s modest scoring average and Andorra’s recent goal against them notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Malta1.5
    Avg goals scored
    Andorra0.5
    Malta1
    Avg goals conceded
    Andorra1
    Malta100%
    BTTS rate
    Andorra50%
    Malta50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Andorra50%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 29%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more UEFA Nations League analysisfull betting preview for Malta v Andorrafootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickMalta to WinBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 62% · edge -4.2 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 55%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Malta Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 36%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Malta to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Malta

    DW
    Last 51W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 0L
    01 Oct 2026H Gibraltar1-1
    24 Sep 2026A Andorra2-1

    Andorra

    DL
    Last 50W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 1L
    27 Sep 2026A Gibraltar0-0
    24 Sep 2026H Malta1-2
    Market aligned with main pickMalta to WinBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 62% · edge -4.2 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
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    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 83%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Malta Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Malta Over 2.5
    50%Andorra Over 2.5
    1.6H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Malta sit at 50% and Andorra sit at 50% with the H2H average at 1.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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