HNK Hajduk Split

Pafos

UEFA Europa League | Thu 23 Jul, 20:00

HNK Hajduk Split v Pafos Stats

Data last updated: Mon 24 Aug 2026, 08:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

HNK Hajduk Split face Pafos in UEFA Europa League on Thu 23 Jul, 20:00. HNK Hajduk Split come in with 3 recent points and 1.5 goals per match, while Pafos have 0 points and - goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

HNK Hajduk Split to Win

At 2.05, HNK Hajduk Split to Win implies roughly 49%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 62%.
HNK Hajduk Split have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Pafos.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 62% for HNK Hajduk Split to Win sits against roughly 49% implied by the current price. HNK Hajduk Split have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Pafos.

Model chance vs price62% model chance against roughly 49% implied

Positive

HNK Hajduk Split have the stronger recent points return, taking.Visible data support

Positive

Price sensitivityEdge +13.1 pts

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: HNK Hajduk Split Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers HNK Hajduk Split have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Pafos. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

HNK Hajduk Split to Win evidence

HNK Hajduk Split have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Pafos.

What To Watch In The Data

HNK Hajduk Split to Win notes

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

HNK Hajduk Split

Last 51W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 0D 1L

16 Jul 2026A Žilina1-2

09 Jul 2026H Žilina2-0

Pafos

Last 50W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Pafos yet.

Market aligned with main pickHNK Hajduk Split to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 49% · edge +13.1 pts

2.05

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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%

1.22

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HNK Hajduk Split Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

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Useful next reads

UEFA Europa League hub football cards angles player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub football predictions hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

HNK Hajduk Split1.5

Avg goals scored

Pafos-

HNK Hajduk Split1

Avg goals conceded

Pafos-

HNK Hajduk Split50%

BTTS rate

Pafos-

HNK Hajduk Split50%

Over 2.5 goals

Pafos-

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +14.3 pts

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%

2.25

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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%

Check odds @ 4

Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%

1.62

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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickHNK Hajduk Split to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 49% · edge +13.1 pts

2.05

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

HNK Hajduk Split Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 35%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

HNK Hajduk Split to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0HNK Hajduk Split wins

0Draws

0Pafos wins

Market aligned with main pickHNK Hajduk Split to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 49% · edge +13.1 pts

2.05

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%

1.91

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for HNK Hajduk Split to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

HNK Hajduk Split0

Avg corners for

Pafos-

HNK Hajduk Split0

Avg total corners

Pafos-

HNK Hajduk Split2

Avg yellow cards

Pafos-

HNK Hajduk Split0

Avg shots

Pafos-

Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.

2.62

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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 29%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 35%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Europa League

HNK Hajduk Split4

Played

Pafos4

HNK Hajduk Split1.3

Avg goals for

Pafos1.3

HNK Hajduk Split1

Avg goals against

Pafos1.5

HNK Hajduk Split2

Clean sheets

Pafos1

Market aligned with main pickHNK Hajduk Split to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 49% · edge +13.1 pts

2.05

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HNK Hajduk Split Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

Season data supports HNK Hajduk Split to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%HNK Hajduk Split Over 2.5

-Pafos Over 2.5

-H2H avg goals

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre

Football Stats Hub

HNK Hajduk Split v Pafos Stats

Match Report

HNK Hajduk Split to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

HNK Hajduk Split

Pafos

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Next step

Your privacy choices

Football Stats Hub

HNK Hajduk Split v Pafos Stats

Match Report

HNK Hajduk Split to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

HNK Hajduk Split

Pafos

Continue the research

Related football research

Prediction context

More stats pages

Competition and hubs

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