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Georgia crestGeorgia
v
Ukraine crestUkraine

UEFA Nations League | Mon 28 Sep, 17:00

Georgia v Ukraine Stats

Data last updated: Sun 27 Sep 2026, 08:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Nations League fixture features Ukraine visiting Georgia, with Ukraine currently second in the group and Georgia bottom without points. Ukraine's recent form includes a win with a clean sheet, while Georgia has yet to score or earn points. Ukraine's tactical approach combines solid defensive organization with effective counter-attacking, relying on key attackers like D. Sikan to convert chances. Georgia will look to leverage home territory and set-piece opportunities but face a resilient Ukrainian defense. The match carries importance for Ukraine to maintain promotion hopes and for Georgia to avoid relegation, adding competitive intensity.

BT4Y best bet

Ukraine to Win

  • Ukraine leads the group with 3 points; Georgia has none so far.
  • Ukraine kept a clean sheet in their last match, showing defensive solidity.
  • Georgia averages 9 corners per game, indicating attacking pressure from wide areas.
  • Sikan has a high goal rate with 1.36 goals per 90 minutes.
  • Head-to-head matches average 1.5 goals, suggesting moderate scoring potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Ukraine to Win with a strong 66.2% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and group standing. Ukraine's defensive strength and efficient attack, led by D. Sikan, underpin this . The at 2.7 offer positive value with a 29.2% edge, making this a compelling selection. The data quality is solid for both teams, supporting the reliability of these projections. Ukraine's ability to limit Georgia's scoring chances and capitalize on their own opportunities forms the core of this pick's appeal.

Model Win Probability66.2%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance39.3% model chance vs 37% implied (+2.3 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge39.3% model chance vs 37% implied (+2.3 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormUkraine unbeaten with clean sheet
Positive
Data QualityComplete for both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Ukraine's tactical discipline and recent clean sheet form make them the favored side to secure victory. Their clinical finishing, especially through D. Sikan, combined with Georgia's lack of goals and points so far, supports backing Ukraine to win this Nations League encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Ukraine's blend of defensive resilience and attacking efficiency positions them strongly to claim all three points against a Georgia side struggling to find the net.”

Key Data Signals

Ukraine to Win evidence

Ukraine leads the group with 3 points; Georgia has none so far.

Ukraine kept a clean sheet in their last match, showing defensive solidity.

Georgia averages 9 corners per game, indicating attacking pressure from wide areas.

Sikan has a high goal rate with 1.36 goals per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

Ukraine to Win notes

  • Over the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals total is 1.5, reflecting a generally low-scoring trend.
  • This suggests a controlled tempo with defensive focus from both sides, though Georgia's corner control could introduce set-piece goal opportunities, slightly increasing scoring potential beyond the average.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Georgia0
Avg goals scored
Ukraine1
Georgia1
Avg goals conceded
Ukraine0
Georgia0%
BTTS rate
Ukraine0%
Georgia0%
Over 2.5 goals
Ukraine0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Goals and BTTS trends indicate a generally low-scoring fixture, with an average of 1.5 goals in previous meetings and no BTTS in recent form. Ukraine's defensive solidity and Georgia's scoring struggles suggest a cautious game with limited goal-scoring, though set-piece chances from Georgia's corners could provide exceptions.

Continue the research

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UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Georgia

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
25 Sep 2026H Northern Ireland0-1

Ukraine

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
25 Sep 2026A Hungary1-0
Market aligned with main pickUkraine to WinBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 37% · edge +2.3 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Ukraine Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Ukraine's recent form is stronger, with a 3-point haul and a clean sheet in their last match, contrasting with Georgia's zero points and no goals scored. This form disparity highlights Ukraine's momentum and defensive organization, reinforcing their status as favorites for the win.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickUkraine to WinBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 37% · edge +2.3 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Ukraine Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 39.3% for Ukraine to Win sits against roughly 37% implied by the current price (+2.3 pts). Ukraine have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Georgia.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Georgia Over 2.5
0%Ukraine Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
Over the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals total is 1.5, reflecting a generally low-scoring trend. This suggests a controlled tempo with defensive focus from both sides, though Georgia's corner control could introduce set-piece goal opportunities, slightly increasing scoring potential beyond the average.

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