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France crestFrance
v
Spain crestSpain

World Cup | Tue 14 Jul, 20:00

France v Spain Stats

Data last updated: Mon 03 Aug 2026, 17:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

France face Spain in World Cup on Tue 14 Jul, 20:00. Spain have spent almost the entire competition refusing to concede. Spain kept five consecutive clean sheets before conceding for the first time in their 2-1 quarter-final victory over Belgium.

BT4Y best bet

Multiple scorelines or a score cast provides a safer cushion against unexpected match movements

  • At 2.38, Multiple scorelines or a score cast provides a safer cushion against unexpected match movements implies roughly 42%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 46%.
  • Both teams have conceded only once in their respective six-match runs, highlighting exceptional defensive organisation.
  • France have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Multiple scorelines or a score cast provides a safer cushion against unexpected match movements angle more than a raw possession.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 46% for Multiple scorelines or a score cast provides a safer cushion against unexpected match movements sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price. France have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Multiple scorelines or a score cast provides a safer cushion against unexpected match movements angle more than a raw possession. Both teams have conceded only once in their respective six-match runs, highlighting exceptional defensive organisation.

Model chance vs price46% model chance against roughly 42% implied
Neutral
France have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Both teams have conceded only once in their respective.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: France Win is the preferred angle because both teams have conceded only once in their respective six-match runs, highlighting exceptional defensive organisation. France have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the France Win angle more than a raw possession edge. He is finishing moves, but he is also helping to construct them.

Main risk

He is finishing moves, but he is also helping to construct them.

Key Data Signals

Multiple scorelines or a score cast provides a safer cushion against unexpected match movements evidence

Both teams have conceded only once in their respective six-match runs, highlighting exceptional defensive organisation.

France have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the France Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Multiple scorelines or a score cast provides a safer cushion against unexpected match movements notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    France7
    Avg corners for
    Spain6.6
    France9.8
    Avg total corners
    Spain7.8
    France0.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Spain0.8
    France19.8
    Avg shots
    Spain16.6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 53% · edge +2.2 pts
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
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    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 61%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    France2.6
    Avg goals scored
    Spain2.2
    France0.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Spain0.2
    France20%
    BTTS rate
    Spain20%
    France60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Spain60%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 52% · edge +12.5 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
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    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 83%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 57%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 47%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickFrance to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 42% · edge +4 pts
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    France Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 61%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 47%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    France to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    France

    WWWWW
    Last 55W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 0D 0L
    09 Jul 2026H Morocco2-0
    04 Jul 2026A Paraguay1-0
    30 Jun 2026H Sweden3-0
    26 Jun 2026A Norway4-1
    22 Jun 2026H Iraq3-0

    Spain

    WWWWW
    Last 55W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 1D 0L
    10 Jul 2026H Belgium2-1
    06 Jul 2026A Portugal1-0
    02 Jul 2026H Austria3-0
    27 Jun 2026A Uruguay1-0
    21 Jun 2026H Saudi Arabia4-0
    Market aligned with main pickFrance to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 42% · edge +4 pts
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    France Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1France wins
    0Draws
    4Spain wins
    05 Jun 2025Spain v France5-4
    09 Jul 2024Spain v France2-1
    10 Oct 2021Spain v France1-2
    28 Mar 2017France v Spain0-2
    23 Jun 2012Spain v France2-0
    Market aligned with main pickFrance to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 42% · edge +4 pts
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 47%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    The head-to-head sample gives context for France to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    France8
    Played
    Spain8
    France2.5
    Avg goals for
    Spain1.8
    France1.3
    Avg goals against
    Spain0.1
    France4
    Clean sheets
    Spain7
    Market aligned with main pickFrance to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 42% · edge +4 pts
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Load more odds for this section
    France Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Season data supports France to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Spain732105
    1France933008
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%France Over 2.5
    60%Spain Over 2.5
    3.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: France sit at 60% and Spain sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.