Fluminense
Deportivo La GuairaCONMEBOL Libertadores | Thu 28 May, 01:30
Fluminense v Deportivo La Guaira Stats
Data last updated: Fri 19 Jun 2026, 08:03 UK timeMatch Report
Fixture analysis
Fluminense face Deportivo La Guaira in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thu 28 May, 01:30. Facing a Deportivo La Guaira side that has conceded 10 goals in five group games, the home team's heavy territory control should produce clear goalscoring openings.
Fluminense Win
- At 40/85, Fluminense Win implies roughly 68%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 54%.
- Fluminense hold a dominant record at the Maracana, winning four of their last six home fixtures in all competitions.
- Fluminense have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Deportivo La Guaira.
- Fluminense have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Fluminense Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
Fluminense Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 68% while the model sits nearer 54% (-14.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +48.3 pts edge at 4.
Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive
Football case vs market price
The 54% for Fluminense Win sits against roughly 68% implied by the current price. Fluminense have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Deportivo La Guaira. Fluminense hold a dominant record at the Maracana, winning four of their last six home fixtures in all competitions.
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
BT4Y analyst view: Fluminense Win is the preferred angle because fluminense hold a dominant record at the Maracana, winning four of their last six home fixtures in all competitions. Fluminense have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Deportivo La Guaira. Fluminense must attack — but without losing their heads
Fluminense must attack — but without losing their heads.
Key Data Signals
Fluminense Win evidence
Fluminense hold a dominant record at the Maracana, winning four of their last six home fixtures in all.
Fluminense have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Deportivo La Guaira.
Fluminense have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Fluminense Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
What To Watch In The Data
Fluminense Win notes
Corners, cards and shots
Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.
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Useful next reads
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.
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Player stats
Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.
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Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
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Recent form
Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
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Head-to-head
Recent meetings and how much they still matter.
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Season team stats
CONMEBOL Libertadores
League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Fluminense | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 4 | Deportivo La Guaira | 3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 |
Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
Next step
Betting context
Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.
