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Egypt crestEgypt
v
South Africa crestSouth Africa

Friendlies | Sun 04 Oct, 19:00

Egypt v South Africa Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 22:49 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Egypt face South Africa in Friendlies on Sun 04 Oct, 19:00. Egypt and South Africa meet at Cairo International Stadium on Sunday with both sides carrying momentum from emphatic 5-0 victories in Africa Cup of Nations qualifying. Egypt enter this friendly with strong attacking momentum from a 5-0 win and Marmoush's scoring form.

BT4Y best bet

Egypt to win

  • At 1.73, Egypt to win implies roughly 58%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 68%.
  • Without Mohamed Abdelmonem and Mohamed El Shenawy, a single defensive error could ruin the exact-score selection, especially considering South Africa’s Oswin Appollis recently supplied.
  • Egypt have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for South Africa.
  • Egypt have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Egypt to win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 68% for Egypt to win sits against roughly 58% implied by the current price. Egypt have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for South Africa. Without Mohamed Abdelmonem and Mohamed El Shenawy, a single defensive error could ruin the exact-score selection, especially considering South Africa’s Oswin Appollis recently supplied.

Model chance vs price68% model chance against roughly 58% implied
Positive
Egypt have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Egypt have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Without Mohamed Abdelmonem and Mohamed El Shenawy, a single.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Egypt Win is the preferred angle because without Mohamed Abdelmonem and Mohamed El Shenawy, a single defensive error could ruin the exact-score selection, especially considering South Africa’s Oswin Appollis recently supplied three assists against Eritrea. Egypt have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for South Africa. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Egypt to win evidence

Without Mohamed Abdelmonem and Mohamed El Shenawy, a single defensive error could ruin the exact-score selection, especially considering.

Egypt have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for South Africa.

Egypt have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Egypt Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Egypt to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Egypt1.5
    Avg goals scored
    South Africa0.75
    Egypt0.5
    Avg goals conceded
    South Africa1
    Egypt25%
    BTTS rate
    South Africa75%
    Egypt50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    South Africa25%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 50% · edge +8.3 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 46%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickEgypt to WinBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 58% · edge +10.2 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
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    Egypt Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 58%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 36%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Egypt to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

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    Useful next reads

    more Friendlies analysisfull betting preview for Egypt v South Africacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Egypt

    LWDW
    Last 52W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 1L
    06 Jun 2026A Brazil1-2
    28 May 2026H Russia1-0
    31 Mar 2026A Spain0-0
    27 Mar 2026A Saudi Arabia4-0

    South Africa

    DDLD
    Last 50W 3D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 3D 1L
    06 Jun 2026A Jamaica1-1
    29 May 2026H Nicaragua0-0
    31 Mar 2026H Panama1-2
    27 Mar 2026H Panama1-1
    Market aligned with main pickEgypt to WinBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 58% · edge +10.2 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Egypt Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Egypt Over 2.5
    25%South Africa Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Egypt sit at 50% and South Africa sit at 25% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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