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Cerro Porteno crestCerro Porteno
v
Sporting Cristal crestSporting Cristal

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Thu 28 May, 23:00

Cerro Porteno v Sporting Cristal Stats

Data last updated: Mon 03 Aug 2026, 20:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cerro Porteno face Sporting Cristal in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thu 28 May, 23:00. Cerro Porteno are formidable in Asuncion, remaining unbeaten in nine consecutive home matches while turning their stadium into an emotional fortress. Sporting Cristal carry deep traveling anxieties, having suffered seven defeats from their last ten away fixtures across all competitions this season.

BT4Y match pick

Ze under it

  • At 8/13, Ze under it implies roughly 62%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 62%.
  • Sporting Cristal have struggled to find rhythm away, failing in seven of their last ten road fixtures.
  • Cerro Porteno have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 6 for Sporting Cristal.
  • Cerro Porteno have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Ze under it angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 62% for Ze under it sits against roughly 62% implied by the current price. Cerro Porteno have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 6 for Sporting Cristal. Sporting Cristal have struggled to find rhythm away, failing in seven of their last ten road fixtures.

Model chance vs price62% model chance against roughly 62% implied
Neutral
Cerro Porteno have the stronger recent points return, taking 10.Visible data support
Positive
Cerro Porteno have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Sporting Cristal have struggled to find rhythm away, failing.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Cerro Porteno Win is the preferred angle because sporting Cristal have struggled to find rhythm away, failing in seven of their last ten road fixtures. Cerro Porteno have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 6 for Sporting Cristal. A route into the last 16 still exists, but it is narrow enough to make supporters squint.

Main risk

A route into the last 16 still exists, but it is narrow enough to make supporters squint.

Key Data Signals

Ze under it evidence

Sporting Cristal have struggled to find rhythm away, failing in seven of their last ten road fixtures.

Cerro Porteno have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 6 for Sporting Cristal.

Cerro Porteno have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Cerro Porteno Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Ze under it notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Cerro Porteno2.6
    Avg corners for
    Sporting Cristal6
    Cerro Porteno8.4
    Avg total corners
    Sporting Cristal10.6
    Cerro Porteno2.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Sporting Cristal2.2
    Cerro Porteno8.2
    Avg shots
    Sporting Cristal15.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 46% · edge +14.1 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
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    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Cerro Porteno v Sporting Cristal predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Cerro Porteno0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Sporting Cristal1.2
    Cerro Porteno0.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Sporting Cristal1.4
    Cerro Porteno20%
    BTTS rate
    Sporting Cristal40%
    Cerro Porteno0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Sporting Cristal40%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +6.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 51%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 0% for Cerro Porteno and 40% for Sporting Cristal, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickCerro Porteno to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 62% · edge +0.1 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Cerro Porteno Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Cerro Porteno to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Cerro Porteno

    WWDWL
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 1D 1L
    21 May 2026A Palmeiras1-0
    08 May 2026A Junior1-0
    30 Apr 2026H Palmeiras1-1
    14 Apr 2026H Junior1-0
    09 Apr 2026A Sporting Cristal0-1

    Sporting Cristal

    LLWLW
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 4L
    21 May 2026A Junior2-3
    05 May 2026H Palmeiras0-2
    29 Apr 2026H Junior2-0
    16 Apr 2026A Palmeiras1-2
    09 Apr 2026H Cerro Porteno1-0
    Market aligned with main pickCerro Porteno to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 62% · edge +0.1 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
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    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.11
    Check odds @ 1.11
    Cerro Porteno Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Cerro Porteno wins
    1Draws
    1Sporting Cristal wins
    09 Apr 2026Sporting Cristal v Cerro Porteno1-0
    14 May 2025Sporting Cristal v Cerro Porteno0-1
    25 Apr 2025Cerro Porteno v Sporting Cristal2-2
    Market aligned with main pickCerro Porteno to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 62% · edge +0.1 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Cerro Porteno to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    CONMEBOL Libertadores

    Cerro Porteno6
    Played
    Sporting Cristal10
    Cerro Porteno1
    Avg goals for
    Sporting Cristal1.2
    Cerro Porteno0.3
    Avg goals against
    Sporting Cristal1.3
    Cerro Porteno4
    Clean sheets
    Sporting Cristal4
    Market aligned with main pickCerro Porteno to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 62% · edge +0.1 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Cerro Porteno Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Season data supports Cerro Porteno to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Cerro Porteno1364114
    3Sporting Cristal66204-3
    CONMEBOL Libertadores standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%Cerro Porteno Over 2.5
    40%Sporting Cristal Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Cerro Porteno sit at 0% and Sporting Cristal sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Cerro Porteno v Sporting Cristal prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

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