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Cavese crestCavese

Serie C - Girone C | Fri 21 Aug, 20:00

Bari v Cavese Stats

Data last updated: Thu 20 Aug 2026, 09:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bari face Cavese in Serie C - Girone C on Fri 21 Aug, 20:00. AS Bari begin their Serie C Group C campaign against SS Cavese at Stadio Comunale San Nicola with recent evidence pointing towards a game shaped more by control than attacking chaos.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Under 2

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 54%, above the 48% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 20/23, Under 2 implies roughly 54%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 48%.
  • Cavese have produced 56 shots in six games but scored only four goals, illustrating the gap between their attacking volume and actual return.
Price warning

Under 2 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 54% while the model sits nearer 48% (-5.9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Cavese Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 4.8.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 48% for Under 2 sits against roughly 54% implied by the current price. Cavese have produced 56 shots in six games but scored only four goals, illustrating the gap between their attacking volume and actual return.

Model chance vs price48% model chance against roughly 54% implied
Negative
Cavese have produced 56 shots in six games.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -5.9 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because aS Bari's defensive stability and home shut-out sequence underpin a low-scoring outlook. Cavese have scored in four of those six games, but never more than once.

Main risk

Cavese have scored in four of those six games, but never more than once.

Key Data Signals

Under 2 evidence

AS Bari's defensive stability and home shut-out sequence underpin a low-scoring outlook.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2 notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Bari wins
2Draws
0Cavese wins
03 Feb 2021Bari v Cavese1-1
07 Oct 2020Cavese v Bari2-3
23 Feb 2020Cavese v Bari1-1
06 Oct 2019Bari v Cavese4-0
Best odds for this sectionCavese to WinBetfred guide price · Model 28% vs implied 13% · edge +15 pts
8
Check odds @ 8
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.89
Check odds @ 1.89
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
4.35
Check odds @ 4.35
Bari to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
The head-to-head sample gives context for Cavese to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bari

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Bari yet.

Cavese

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Cavese yet.

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.82
Check odds @ 2.82
Load more odds for this section
Cavese Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 36%
4.8
Check odds @ 4.8
Cavese to WinBetfred guide price · model 28%
8
Check odds @ 8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
4.35
Check odds @ 4.35
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.01
Check odds @ 1.01
Bari Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Bari to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Bari v Cavese predictionplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bari-
Avg goals scored
Cavese-
Bari-
Avg goals conceded
Cavese-
Bari-
BTTS rate
Cavese-
Bari-
Over 2.5 goals
Cavese-
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 56% · edge -8 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.89
Check odds @ 1.89
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.26
Check odds @ 1.26
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Under 2.5 Goals does not fully support the current price; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionCavese Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 36% vs implied 21% · edge +15 pts
4.8
Check odds @ 4.8
Load more odds for this section
Cavese to WinBetfred guide price · model 28%
8
Check odds @ 8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.89
Check odds @ 1.89
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
4.35
Check odds @ 4.35
Bari Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Bari to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Cavese Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie C - Girone C

Bari0
Played
Cavese0
Bari0
Avg goals for
Cavese0
Bari0
Avg goals against
Cavese0
Bari0
Clean sheets
Cavese0
Best odds for this sectionCavese Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 36% vs implied 21% · edge +15 pts
4.8
Check odds @ 4.8
Load more odds for this section
Cavese to WinBetfred guide price · model 28%
8
Check odds @ 8
Bari Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Bari to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Season data supports Cavese Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Bari000000
2Cavese000000
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Bari Over 2.5
-Cavese Over 2.5
3.25H2H avg goals
Cavese have produced 56 shots in six games but scored only four goals, illustrating the gap between their attacking volume and actual return.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Bari v Cavese prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

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Competition and hubs

Bari v Cavese predictionplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets research

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre