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Azerbaijan crestAzerbaijan
v
Lithuania crestLithuania

UEFA Nations League | Sun 04 Oct, 14:00

Azerbaijan v Lithuania Stats

Data last updated: Sun 04 Oct 2026, 20:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lithuania hosts Azerbaijan in a UEFA Nations League clash following Lithuania's encouraging 2-0 win over Liechtenstein, ending a six-match losing streak in the competition. Lithuania's home games frequently feature goals at both ends, reflecting an open style with attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities. Azerbaijan arrives in positive form with back-to-back wins but has struggled defensively, keeping only one clean sheet in their last 16 internationals. Both teams possess capable attacking players, setting the stage for a contest likely to see goals from both sides at the S.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams have scored in six of Lithuania's last seven competitive home matches.
  • Azerbaijan has conceded in 15 of their last 16 international matches, showing defensive frailty.
  • Lithuania opened their Nations League campaign with a 2-0 win, boosting .
  • Azerbaijan has won four of their last five matches in 2026, showing attacking form.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 58.3% chance for both teams to score, supported by Lithuania's consistent home BTTS trend and Azerbaijan's poor clean sheet record, conceding in 15 of 16 internationals. The 2.1 imply a 47.6% chance, indicating positive value. Lithuania's attacking players like Armandas Kucys and Lukas Michelbrink, combined with Azerbaijan's offensive threats including Emin Mahmudov and Mahir Emreli, reinforce the likelihood of goals at both ends. The data quality is solid, with no limitations, making this a well-supported selection.

Model Chance58.3% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+12.8 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Probability58.3% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+12.8 pts)
Positive
Lithuania Home BTTS Rate6 of 7 matches
Strong positive
Azerbaijan Clean Sheets1 in 16 matches
Strong positive
Value Edge58.3% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+12.8 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have demonstrated attacking capabilities alongside defensive vulnerabilities, especially Azerbaijan's rare clean sheets and Lithuania's open home matches. This tactical setup, combined with recent scoring form from key players, makes both teams scoring a logical expectation in this Nations League fixture.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“Lithuania's home matches consistently feature goals at both ends, and Azerbaijan's defensive record suggests they are unlikely to keep a clean sheet, making both teams to score a compelling pick.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams have scored in six of Lithuania's last seven competitive home matches.

Azerbaijan has conceded in 15 of their last 16 international matches, showing defensive frailty.

Azerbaijan has won four of their last five matches in 2026, showing attacking form.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.0, indicating low-scoring encounters historically.
  • However, recent form and tactical shifts suggest a higher tempo and more open play in this match, increasing the likelihood of goals and supporting the BTTS market.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Azerbaijan0.5
Avg goals scored
Lithuania1.5
Azerbaijan0.5
Avg goals conceded
Lithuania0.5
Azerbaijan50%
BTTS rate
Lithuania50%
Azerbaijan0%
Over 2.5 goals
Lithuania0%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 46% · edge +12.8 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 46%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Lithuania has seen both teams score in six of their last seven competitive home matches, while Azerbaijan has conceded in 15 of their last 16 internationals. Their recent matches in 2026 also featured goals at both ends, reinforcing the expectation of goals from both sides in this game.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 46% · edge +12.8 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Lithuania to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Lithuania Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Azerbaijan to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Azerbaijan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The 58.3% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+12.8 pts). Azerbaijan show a 50% BTTS rate and Lithuania show a 50% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Azerbaijan’s defensive struggles and scoring ability support a Both Teams To Score selection here.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Azerbaijan v Lithuaniafootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Azerbaijan

DD
Last 50W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 0L
01 Oct 2026H Liechtenstein0-0
27 Sep 2026A Lithuania1-1

Lithuania

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
27 Sep 2026H Azerbaijan1-1
24 Sep 2026A Liechtenstein2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 64% · edge +1.8 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Lithuania to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Lithuania Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Azerbaijan to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Azerbaijan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Lithuania has 4 points with 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game recently, showing attacking efficiency and defensive resilience. Azerbaijan has 2 points, scoring and conceding 0.5 goals per game, reflecting a balanced but vulnerable defensive form. Both teams' recent form aligns with the expectation of goals at both ends.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Azerbaijan Over 2.5
0%Lithuania Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Over the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.0, indicating low-scoring encounters historically. However, recent form and tactical shifts suggest a higher tempo and more open play in this match, increasing the likelihood of goals and supporting the BTTS market.

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