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Azerbaijan crestAzerbaijan
v
Lithuania crestLithuania

UEFA Nations League | Sun 04 Oct, 14:00

Azerbaijan v Lithuania Stats

Data last updated: Mon 26 Oct 2026, 15:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Azerbaijan face Lithuania in UEFA Nations League on Sun 04 Oct, 14:00. Azerbaijan and Lithuania renew acquaintances in Baku on Sunday as the two unbeaten sides in Nations League Group 2 meet for the second time in little more than a week. Azerbaijan vs Lithuania preview: Unbeaten sides meet again in Baku.

BT4Y match pick

The Draw

  • At 1.44, The Draw implies roughly 69%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • Azerbaijan’s unbeaten run and defensive solidity contrast with their lack of scoring, while Lithuania’s recent goal threat and tight matches suggest another draw is.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Azerbaijan and 0% for Lithuania, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Lithuania are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.5 goals per match, with Azerbaijan at 0.5.
  • BTTS rates of 50% for Azerbaijan and 50% for Lithuania show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for The Draw sits against roughly 69% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Azerbaijan and 0% for Lithuania, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Azerbaijan’s unbeaten run and defensive solidity contrast with their lack of scoring, while Lithuania’s recent goal threat and tight matches suggest another draw is.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 69% implied
Negative
The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Azerbaijan and 0%.Visible data support
Positive
Lithuania are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.5.Visible data support
Positive
Azerbaijan’s unbeaten run and defensive solidity contrast with their.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because six of Lithuania’s last seven games have produced under 2.5 goals. Lithuania are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Azerbaijan at 0.5. Risk Factor: Lithuania have won two of their last three matches and their superior goal return could decide the tight contest if Azerbaijan fail to score.

Main risk

Risk Factor: Lithuania have won two of their last three matches and their superior goal return could decide the tight contest if Azerbaijan fail to score.

Key Data Signals

The Draw evidence

Six of Lithuania’s last seven games have produced under 2.5 goals.

Lithuania are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.5 goals per match, with Azerbaijan at 0.5.

BTTS rates of 50% for Azerbaijan and 50% for Lithuania show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

The Draw notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Azerbaijan0.5
Avg goals scored
Lithuania1.5
Azerbaijan0.5
Avg goals conceded
Lithuania0.5
Azerbaijan50%
BTTS rate
Lithuania50%
Azerbaijan0%
Over 2.5 goals
Lithuania0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 69% · edge -3.4 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 46%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Under 2.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 0% for Azerbaijan and 0% for Lithuania, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Azerbaijan

DD
Last 50W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 0L
01 Oct 2026H Liechtenstein0-0
27 Sep 2026A Lithuania1-1

Lithuania

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
27 Sep 2026H Azerbaijan1-1
24 Sep 2026A Liechtenstein2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 64% · edge +1.8 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Lithuania to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Lithuania Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Azerbaijan to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Azerbaijan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 46% · edge +12.8 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Lithuania to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Lithuania Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Azerbaijan to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Azerbaijan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Azerbaijan Over 2.5
0%Lithuania Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Azerbaijan sit at 0% and Lithuania sit at 0% with the H2H average at 1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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