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Santos crestSantos
v
Coritiba crestCoritiba

Serie A | Sun 17 May, 15:00

Santos v Coritiba Stats

Data last updated: Sun 07 Jun 2026, 09:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Santos face Coritiba in Serie A on Sun 17 May, 15:00. Cuca's side have historically dominated this fixture, winning seven of the last ten meetings. Santos have re-energised their campaign with consecutive victories, including a midweek cup triumph away against Coritiba.

BT4Y match pick

Santos Win

  • At 8/13, Santos Win implies roughly 62%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 60%.
  • Santos are dynamic going forward but carry defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded 22 goals while scoring 21.
  • Santos have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 5 for Coritiba.
  • Santos have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Santos Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Santos sit 15 in the table, while Coritiba sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 60% for Santos Win sits against roughly 62% implied by the current price. Santos have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 5 for Coritiba. Santos are dynamic going forward but carry defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded that scoring level while scoring 21.

Model chance vs price60% model chance against roughly 62% implied
Neutral
Santos have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points.Visible data support
Positive
Santos have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Santos are dynamic going forward but carry defensive vulnerabilities.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Santos Win is the preferred angle because santos are dynamic going forward but carry defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded that scoring level while scoring 21. Santos have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 5 for Coritiba. Coritiba possess attacking references like Pedro Rocha but lack consistency.

Main risk

Coritiba possess attacking references like Pedro Rocha but lack consistency.

Key Data Signals

Santos Win evidence

Santos are dynamic going forward but carry defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded 22 goals while scoring 21.

Santos have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 5 for Coritiba.

Santos have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Santos Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Santos sit 15 in the table, while Coritiba sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Santos Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Santos1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Coritiba1.4
    Santos1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Coritiba1.8
    Santos60%
    BTTS rate
    Coritiba60%
    Santos40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Coritiba60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 50% · edge +23.3 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 31%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Santos

    WDDLW
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 4D 3L
    10 May 2026H RB Bragantino2-0
    02 May 2026A Palmeiras1-1
    25 Apr 2026A Bahia2-2
    19 Apr 2026H Fluminense2-3
    12 Apr 2026H Atletico-MG1-0

    Coritiba

    DLLWD
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 4D 3L
    09 May 2026H Internacional2-2
    02 May 2026A Vitoria1-4
    26 Apr 2026A Gremio0-1
    19 Apr 2026H Atletico-MG2-0
    12 Apr 2026A Botafogo2-2
    Market aligned with main pickSantos to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +2.3 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 85%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    Santos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    7Coritiba26187560
    15Santos2118567-3
    Santos sit in position 15, while Coritiba sit in position 7, so table pressure belongs in the Santos Win assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSantos to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +2.3 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Santos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Santos to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Santos5
    Avg corners for
    Coritiba3
    Santos10.6
    Avg total corners
    Coritiba9
    Santos2.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Coritiba2
    Santos11.8
    Avg shots
    Coritiba8.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    7Santos wins
    2Draws
    1Coritiba wins
    13 May 2026Coritiba v Santos0-2
    22 Apr 2026Santos v Coritiba0-0
    12 Nov 2024Coritiba v Santos0-2
    23 Jul 2024Santos v Coritiba4-0
    27 Oct 2023Santos v Coritiba2-1
    10 Jun 2023Coritiba v Santos0-0
    Market aligned with main pickSantos to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +2.3 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Santos to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Santos18
    Played
    Coritiba18
    Santos1.4
    Avg goals for
    Coritiba1.3
    Santos1.6
    Avg goals against
    Coritiba1.3
    Santos4
    Clean sheets
    Coritiba5
    Market aligned with main pickSantos to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +2.3 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Santos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Season data supports Santos to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Santos Over 2.5
    60%Coritiba Over 2.5
    2.1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Santos sit at 40% and Coritiba sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.