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River Plate crestRiver Plate
v
RB Bragantino crestRB Bragantino

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Thu 21 May, 01:30

River Plate v RB Bragantino Stats

Data last updated: Wed 20 May 2026, 03:04 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

River Plate face RB Bragantino in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Thu 21 May, 01:30. River Plate come in with 10 recent points and 1.25 goals per match, while RB Bragantino have 6 points and 2.25 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • At 2.25, Over 3.5 Cards implies roughly 44%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 75%.
  • River Plate have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while RB Bragantino sit at 3.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 75% for Over 3.5 Cards sits against roughly 44% implied by the current price. River Plate have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while RB Bragantino sit at 3.

Model chance vs price75% model chance against roughly 44% implied
Strong positive
River Plate have the higher yellow-card average at 3.Visible data support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +30.6 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 3.5 Cards is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers River Plate have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while RB Bragantino sit at 3. The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

River Plate have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while RB Bragantino sit at 3.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • Compare both yellow-card averages before treating the card line as value.
  • Check whether match pressure is likely to create fouls and recovery challenges.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

River Plate4.25
Avg corners for
RB Bragantino5.75
River Plate6.75
Avg total corners
RB Bragantino10.25
River Plate3
Avg yellow cards
RB Bragantino3
River Plate12
Avg shots
RB Bragantino20
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 44% · edge +30.6 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

River Plate1.25
Avg goals scored
RB Bragantino2.25
River Plate0.5
Avg goals conceded
RB Bragantino1
River Plate50%
BTTS rate
RB Bragantino25%
River Plate25%
Over 2.5 goals
RB Bragantino50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 25% · edge +33.3 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 44% · edge +30.6 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 58%
4
Check odds @ 4
River Plate to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
River Plate Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
RB Bragantino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
RB Bragantino to WinBetfred guide price · model 29%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 3.5 Cards is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

River Plate

WWWD
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
08 May 2026A Carabobo FC2-1
01 May 2026A RB Bragantino1-0
16 Apr 2026H Carabobo FC1-0
09 Apr 2026A Blooming1-1

RB Bragantino

WLWL
Last 52W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 2L
08 May 2026A Blooming6-0
01 May 2026H River Plate0-1
17 Apr 2026H Blooming3-2
10 Apr 2026A Carabobo FC0-1
Best odds for this sectionRiver Plate to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 36% · edge +18.4 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 81%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
River Plate Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.47
Check odds @ 1.47
RB Bragantino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
RB Bragantino to WinBetfred guide price · model 29%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3
Check odds @ 3
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1River Plate wins
0Draws
0RB Bragantino wins
01 May 2026RB Bragantino v River Plate0-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 25% · edge +33.3 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
Load more odds for this section
River Plate to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
RB Bragantino to WinBetfred guide price · model 29%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3
Check odds @ 3
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

River Plate6
Played
RB Bragantino6
River Plate1.5
Avg goals for
RB Bragantino2
River Plate0.5
Avg goals against
RB Bragantino0.8
River Plate3
Clean sheets
RB Bragantino2
Best odds for this sectionRiver Plate to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 36% · edge +18.4 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
River Plate Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
RB Bragantino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
RB Bragantino to WinBetfred guide price · model 29%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Season data supports River Plate to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1River Plate1464206
2RB Bragantino1063127
CONMEBOL Sudamericana standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%River Plate Over 2.5
50%RB Bragantino Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: River Plate sit at 25% and RB Bragantino sit at 50% with the H2H average at 1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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Betting context

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