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Independiente Petrolero crestIndependiente Petrolero
v
Botafogo crestBotafogo

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Thu 21 May, 01:00

Independiente Petrolero v Botafogo Stats

Data last updated: Tue 21 Jul 2026, 19:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Independiente Petrolero face Botafogo in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Thu 21 May, 01:00. Botafogo dominated the reverse fixture 3-0 with 34 shots. Petrolero have conceded ten goals in four defeats, making a clear away victory heavily probable.

BT4Y best bet

Independiente Petrolero Win

  • At 5/1, Independiente Petrolero Win implies roughly 17%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Moving the venue away from Bolivia to Paraguay deprives Petrolero of altitude and fans.
  • Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Independiente Petrolero.
  • Botafogo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Independiente Petrolero Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Independiente Petrolero Win sits against roughly 17% implied by the current price. Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Independiente Petrolero. Moving the venue away from Bolivia to Paraguay deprives Petrolero of altitude and fans.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 17% implied
Positive
Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Botafogo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Moving the venue away from Bolivia to Paraguay deprives.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Independiente Petrolero Win is the preferred angle because moving the venue away from Bolivia to Paraguay deprives Petrolero of altitude and fans. Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Independiente Petrolero. This market offers higher standalone returns due to its precise nature, but it carries higher short-term volatility as single moments can alter the final scoreline late in play.

Main risk

This market offers higher standalone returns due to its precise nature, but it carries higher short-term volatility as single moments can alter the final scoreline late in play.

Key Data Signals

Independiente Petrolero Win evidence

Moving the venue away from Bolivia to Paraguay deprives Petrolero of altitude and fans.

Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Independiente Petrolero.

Botafogo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Independiente Petrolero Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Independiente Petrolero Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Independiente Petrolero3
    Avg corners for
    Botafogo5
    Independiente Petrolero5.5
    Avg total corners
    Botafogo9
    Independiente Petrolero1
    Avg yellow cards
    Botafogo3
    Independiente Petrolero16
    Avg shots
    Botafogo12
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 48% · edge +9.3 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 57%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    full betting preview for Independiente Petrolero v Botafogocorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Independiente Petrolero0.6
    Avg goals scored
    Botafogo2.25
    Independiente Petrolero2
    Avg goals conceded
    Botafogo1
    Independiente Petrolero40%
    BTTS rate
    Botafogo75%
    Independiente Petrolero60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Botafogo75%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 27% · edge +41.6 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 85%
    1.11
    Check odds @ 1.11
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
    2.88
    Check odds @ 2.88
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 36%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Petrolero to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 8% · edge +19.3 pts
    13
    Check odds @ 13
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Independiente Petrolero Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    7
    Check odds @ 7
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Independiente Petrolero to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Independiente Petrolero

    LLLLD
    Last 50W 1D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 4L
    05 May 2026H Caracas FC2-3
    28 Apr 2026A Botafogo0-3
    15 Apr 2026A Caracas FC0-1
    07 Apr 2026H Racing Club1-3
    03 Mar 2026H Guabirá0-0

    Botafogo

    WWWD
    Last 53W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 1D 0L
    07 May 2026H Racing Club2-1
    28 Apr 2026H Independiente Petrolero3-0
    15 Apr 2026A Racing Club3-2
    09 Apr 2026H Caracas FC1-1
    Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Petrolero to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 8% · edge +19.3 pts
    13
    Check odds @ 13
    Load more odds for this section
    Independiente Petrolero Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    7
    Check odds @ 7
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    4.55
    Check odds @ 4.55
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Independiente Petrolero wins
    0Draws
    1Botafogo wins
    28 Apr 2026Botafogo v Independiente Petrolero3-0
    Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Petrolero to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 8% · edge +19.3 pts
    13
    Check odds @ 13
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Independiente Petrolero to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    CONMEBOL Sudamericana

    Independiente Petrolero7
    Played
    Botafogo6
    Independiente Petrolero0.6
    Avg goals for
    Botafogo2.5
    Independiente Petrolero2.1
    Avg goals against
    Botafogo0.8
    Independiente Petrolero1
    Clean sheets
    Botafogo2
    Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Petrolero to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 8% · edge +19.3 pts
    13
    Check odds @ 13
    Load more odds for this section
    Independiente Petrolero Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    7
    Check odds @ 7
    Season data supports Independiente Petrolero to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Botafogo16651010
    CONMEBOL Sudamericana standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Independiente Petrolero Over 2.5
    75%Botafogo Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Independiente Petrolero sit at 60% and Botafogo sit at 75% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Independiente Petrolero v Botafogo prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Competition and hubs

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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