Football Stats Hub

Gremio crestGremio
v
Palestino crestPalestino

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Thu 21 May, 01:00

Gremio v Palestino Stats

Data last updated: Tue 18 Aug 2026, 05:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gremio face Palestino in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Thu 21 May, 01:00. Grêmio dominate possession with around 70% control and boast an excellent defensive record, conceding only once in Group F. Grêmio's overwhelming home record of four wins from their last six fixtures shapes the 1X2 market significantly in their favour.

BT4Y best bet

Gremio Win

  • At 2/1, Gremio Win implies roughly 33%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 48%.
  • Grêmio have conceded just one goal in four Copa Sudamericana fixtures, showing exceptional resilience on the continent.
  • Gremio have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Palestino.
  • Gremio have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.25 conceded per match, which helps the Gremio Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 48% for Gremio Win sits against roughly 33% implied by the current price. Gremio have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Palestino. Grêmio have conceded just one goal in four Copa Sudamericana fixtures, showing exceptional resilience on the continent.

Model chance vs price48% model chance against roughly 33% implied
Strong positive
Gremio have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Gremio have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.25 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Grêmio have conceded just one goal in four Copa.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Gremio Win is the preferred angle because grêmio have conceded just one goal in four Copa Sudamericana fixtures, showing exceptional resilience on the continent. Gremio have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Palestino. Palestino are solid defensively but completely toothless up front, failing to score a single goal in the tournament so far.

Main risk

Palestino are solid defensively but completely toothless up front, failing to score a single goal in the tournament so far.

Key Data Signals

Gremio Win evidence

Grêmio have conceded just one goal in four Copa Sudamericana fixtures, showing exceptional resilience on the continent.

Gremio have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Palestino.

Gremio have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.25 conceded per match, which helps the Gremio Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Gremio Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Gremio1
    Avg goals scored
    Palestino0.4
    Gremio0.25
    Avg goals conceded
    Palestino0.8
    Gremio0%
    BTTS rate
    Palestino20%
    Gremio25%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Palestino20%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +14.7 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Gremio v Palestino predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Gremio

    WDWL
    Last 52W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 1L
    05 May 2026A Deportivo Riestra3-0
    30 Apr 2026A Palestino0-0
    14 Apr 2026H Deportivo Riestra1-0
    09 Apr 2026A Atletico Torque0-1

    Palestino

    LDLDW
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 2L
    06 May 2026A Atletico Torque0-1
    30 Apr 2026H Gremio0-0
    15 Apr 2026H Atletico Torque0-2
    08 Apr 2026A Deportivo Riestra0-0
    05 Mar 2026A Universidad de Chile2-1
    Market aligned with main pickGremio to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 69% · edge -10.3 pts
    1.45
    Check odds @ 1.45
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
    1.07
    Check odds @ 1.07
    Gremio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.21
    Check odds @ 1.21
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Gremio1163215
    4Palestino36033-5
    CONMEBOL Sudamericana standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickGremio to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 69% · edge -10.3 pts
    1.45
    Check odds @ 1.45
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Gremio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.21
    Check odds @ 1.21
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Gremio to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Gremio3.25
    Avg corners for
    Palestino4.2
    Gremio7.5
    Avg total corners
    Palestino7.4
    Gremio2.75
    Avg yellow cards
    Palestino2.8
    Gremio11.5
    Avg shots
    Palestino11.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 43%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Gremio wins
    1Draws
    0Palestino wins
    30 Apr 2026Palestino v Gremio0-0
    Market aligned with main pickGremio to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 69% · edge -10.3 pts
    1.45
    Check odds @ 1.45
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Gremio to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    CONMEBOL Sudamericana

    Gremio8
    Played
    Palestino7
    Gremio1.3
    Avg goals for
    Palestino0.4
    Gremio0.9
    Avg goals against
    Palestino1
    Gremio4
    Clean sheets
    Palestino2
    Market aligned with main pickGremio to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 69% · edge -10.3 pts
    1.45
    Check odds @ 1.45
    Load more odds for this section
    Gremio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.21
    Check odds @ 1.21
    Season data supports Gremio to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    25%Gremio Over 2.5
    20%Palestino Over 2.5
    0H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Gremio sit at 25% and Palestino sit at 20% with the H2H average at 0 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Gremio v Palestino prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

    More stats pages

    Deportivo Recoleta v Boca JuniorsCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Tue 18 Aug 23:00

    Competition and hubs

    Gremio v Palestino predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centre

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre