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Cruzeiro crestCruzeiro
v
Chapecoense-sc crestChapecoense-sc

Serie A | Sun 24 May, 20:00

Cruzeiro v Chapecoense-sc Stats

Data last updated: Tue 16 Jun 2026, 03:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cruzeiro face Chapecoense-sc in Serie A on Sun 24 May, 20:00. Cruzeiro have won 5 of their 7 home league matches under Artur Jorge, establishing immense defensive control with a 57.5% average possession rate. With Chapecoense conceding 2.1 goals per away game, low-margin home wins command the shortest pricing bars.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • At 11/2, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 15%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 50%.
  • 🎯 Cruzeiro to Win & Under 2.5 Goals Rationale
  • Cruzeiro are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Chapecoense-sc at 1.2.
  • BTTS rates of 60% for Cruzeiro and 100% for Chapecoense-sc show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 50% for Under that scoring level sits against roughly 15% implied by the current price. Cruzeiro are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Chapecoense-sc at 1.2. 🎯 Cruzeiro to Win & Under 2.5 Goals Rationale

Model chance vs price50% model chance against roughly 15% implied
Strong positive
Cruzeiro are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4.Visible data support
Positive
BTTS rates of 60% for Cruzeiro and 100% for Chapecoense-sc.Visible data support
Positive
🎯 Cruzeiro to Win & Under 2.5 Goals RationaleArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because 🎯 Cruzeiro to Win & Under 2.5 Goals Rationale Cruzeiro are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Chapecoense-sc at 1.2. Fabio Matias has tried to stabilise the situation since taking charge, but results remain difficult to find.

Main risk

Fabio Matias has tried to stabilise the situation since taking charge, but results remain difficult to find.

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

🎯 Cruzeiro to Win & Under 2.5 Goals Rationale

Cruzeiro are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Chapecoense-sc at 1.2.

BTTS rates of 60% for Cruzeiro and 100% for Chapecoense-sc show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cruzeiro1.4
Avg goals scored
Chapecoense-sc1.2
Cruzeiro1
Avg goals conceded
Chapecoense-sc2.4
Cruzeiro60%
BTTS rate
Chapecoense-sc100%
Cruzeiro40%
Over 2.5 goals
Chapecoense-sc80%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 49% · edge +1.1 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 40% for Cruzeiro and 80% for Chapecoense-sc, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 49% · edge +27.2 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 75%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Chapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
5
Check odds @ 5
Cruzeiro to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
9
Check odds @ 9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Cruzeiro4.6
Avg corners for
Chapecoense-sc3
Cruzeiro8.2
Avg total corners
Chapecoense-sc9
Cruzeiro3.8
Avg yellow cards
Chapecoense-sc2.6
Cruzeiro13.8
Avg shots
Chapecoense-sc13
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 48% · edge +27.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cruzeiro

DWLWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
17 May 2026A Palmeiras1-1
10 May 2026A Bahia2-1
03 May 2026H Atletico-MG1-3
25 Apr 2026A Remo1-0
19 Apr 2026H Gremio2-0

Chapecoense-sc

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 7L
17 May 2026H Remo2-3
10 May 2026A Mirassol1-1
03 May 2026H RB Bragantino1-2
27 Apr 2026A Fluminense1-2
18 Apr 2026H Botafogo1-4
Best odds for this sectionChapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 20% · edge +22 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
3.21
Check odds @ 3.21
Cruzeiro to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.05
Check odds @ 1.05
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
9
Check odds @ 9
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
5
Check odds @ 5
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Cruzeiro wins
2Draws
4Chapecoense-sc wins
13 Aug 2022Cruzeiro v Chapecoense-sc1-1
30 Apr 2022Chapecoense-sc v Cruzeiro0-2
25 Nov 2020Chapecoense-sc v Cruzeiro0-1
21 Aug 2020Cruzeiro v Chapecoense-sc0-1
13 Oct 2019Chapecoense-SC v Cruzeiro1-1
26 May 2019Cruzeiro v Chapecoense-SC1-2
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 49% · edge +27.2 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Cruzeiro to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
9
Check odds @ 9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
5
Check odds @ 5
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Cruzeiro18
Played
Chapecoense-sc17
Cruzeiro1.3
Avg goals for
Chapecoense-sc1
Cruzeiro1.6
Avg goals against
Chapecoense-sc1.9
Cruzeiro4
Clean sheets
Chapecoense-sc1
Best odds for this sectionChapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 20% · edge +22 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Cruzeiro to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
9
Check odds @ 9
Season data supports Chapecoense-sc Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Cruzeiro2418666-4
20Chapecoense-sc9171610-16
Cruzeiro sit in position 11, while Chapecoense-sc sit in position 20, so table pressure belongs in the Under 2.5 Goals assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Cruzeiro Over 2.5
80%Chapecoense-sc Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Cruzeiro sit at 40% and Chapecoense-sc sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Cruzeiro v Chapecoense-sc prediction

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Next step

Betting context

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