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Botafogo crestBotafogo
v
Corinthians crestCorinthians

Serie A | Sun 17 May, 20:00

Botafogo v Corinthians Stats

Data last updated: Tue 28 Jul 2026, 00:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Botafogo face Corinthians in Serie A on Sun 17 May, 20:00. Botafogo's fragile environment could struggle against Corinthians' defensive shape, which has conceded only thirteen goals all league season. Corinthians are conceding just 0.83 goals per away match, showing their defensive stability under manager Fernando Diniz.

BT4Y lean · price warning

An away win or draw shields the stake against a level full-time scoreline, offering defensive insulation

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 64%, above the 29% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 4/7, An away win or draw shields the stake against a level full-time scoreline, offering defensive insulation implies roughly 64%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 29%.
  • Given Botafogo's recent 1-1 draw with Atletico Mineiro and Corinthians' sturdy away rearguard combined with an away winless drought, a high-tension 1-1 scoreline looks.
  • Corinthians have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 6 for Botafogo.
  • Corinthians have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the An away win or draw shields the stake against a level full-time scoreline, offering defensive insulation angle more than a.
Price warning

An away win or draw shields the stake against a level full-time scoreline, offering defensive insulation is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 64% while the model sits nearer 29% (-35.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 1.91.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 29% for An away win or draw shields the stake against a level full-time scoreline, offering defensive insulation sits against roughly 64% implied by the current price. Corinthians have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 6 for Botafogo. Given Botafogo's recent 1-1 draw with Atletico Mineiro and Corinthians' sturdy away rearguard combined with an away winless drought, a high-tension 1-1 scoreline looks.

Model chance vs price29% model chance against roughly 64% implied
Negative
Corinthians have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points.Visible data support
Positive
Corinthians have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Given Botafogo's recent 1-1 draw with Atletico Mineiro.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Draw is the preferred angle because given Botafogo's recent 1-1 draw with Atletico Mineiro and Corinthians' sturdy away rearguard combined with an away winless drought, a high-tension 1-1 scoreline looks highly plausible. Corinthians have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 6 for Botafogo. Botafogo are highly dangerous going forward with that scoring level but remain defensively unstable.

Main risk

Botafogo are highly dangerous going forward with 26 goals but remain defensively unstable.

Key Data Signals

An away win or draw shields the stake against a level full-time scoreline, offering defensive insulation evidence

Given Botafogo's recent 1-1 draw with Atletico Mineiro and Corinthians' sturdy away rearguard combined with an away winless.

Corinthians have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 6 for Botafogo.

Corinthians have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Draw angle more than a raw possession edge.

Botafogo sit 7 in the table, while Corinthians sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

An away win or draw shields the stake against a level full-time scoreline, offering defensive insulation notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Botafogo5.4
    Avg corners for
    Corinthians4.2
    Botafogo10.4
    Avg total corners
    Corinthians9.4
    Botafogo1.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Corinthians2.4
    Botafogo16.6
    Avg shots
    Corinthians10.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 50% · edge +14 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 59%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Serie A hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Botafogo2
    Avg goals scored
    Corinthians1
    Botafogo1.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Corinthians0.8
    Botafogo100%
    BTTS rate
    Corinthians40%
    Botafogo80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Corinthians40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 77%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 40%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 46%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickCorinthians to WinBetUK guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +14.6 pts
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Corinthians Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Corinthians to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Botafogo

    DLDWD
    Last 51W 3D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    10 May 2026A Atletico-MG1-1
    02 May 2026H Remo1-2
    25 Apr 2026H Internacional2-2
    18 Apr 2026A Chapecoense-sc4-1
    12 Apr 2026H Coritiba2-2

    Corinthians

    WLWDD
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 5D 3L
    10 May 2026H Sao Paulo3-2
    04 May 2026A Mirassol1-2
    26 Apr 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-0
    19 Apr 2026A Vitoria0-0
    12 Apr 2026H Palmeiras0-0
    Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 63% · edge +11.9 pts
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Corinthians to WinBetUK guide price · model 46%
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Corinthians Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Botafogo wins
    3Draws
    4Corinthians wins
    30 Nov 2025Corinthians v Botafogo2-2
    26 Jul 2025Botafogo v Corinthians1-1
    15 Sep 2024Botafogo v Corinthians2-1
    02 Jun 2024Corinthians v Botafogo0-1
    23 Sep 2023Corinthians v Botafogo1-0
    11 May 2023Botafogo v Corinthians3-0
    Market aligned with main pickCorinthians to WinBetUK guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +14.6 pts
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Corinthians to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Botafogo20
    Played
    Corinthians20
    Botafogo1.7
    Avg goals for
    Corinthians1.1
    Botafogo1.6
    Avg goals against
    Corinthians1
    Botafogo3
    Clean sheets
    Corinthians8
    Market aligned with main pickCorinthians to WinBetUK guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +14.6 pts
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Corinthians Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Season data supports Corinthians to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    7Botafogo29208572
    9Corinthians28207762
    Botafogo sit in position 7, while Corinthians sit in position 9, so table pressure belongs in the An away win or draw shields the stake against a level full-time scoreline, offering defensive insulation assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Botafogo Over 2.5
    40%Corinthians Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Botafogo sit at 80% and Corinthians sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Botafogo v Corinthians prediction

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    Betting context

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