Bahia
GremioSerie A | Sun 17 May, 20:00
Bahia v Gremio Stats
Data last updated: Fri 19 Jun 2026, 11:52 UK timeMatch Report
Fixture analysis
Bahia face Gremio in Serie A on Sun 17 May, 20:00. Grêmio's last four away league fixtures have produced three separate goalless stalemates due to their suffocating, compact defensive low block. Since Bahia are struggling with anxiety and a six-match winless run, they may fail to break down this stubborn, resilient defensive unit.
Requires the total score from both sides to combine for two goals or fewer by the final whistle
- At 9/10, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 53%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 62%.
- Gremio's low scoring average on the road suggests a tight environment where structural defensive systems prioritize keeping clean sheets.
- Bahia are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Gremio at 0.2.
- BTTS rates of 80% for Bahia and 0% for Gremio show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.
Why The Model Likes This Bet
Chance, price and football numbers
The 62% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 53% implied by the current price. Bahia are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Gremio at 0.2. Gremio's low scoring average on the road suggests a tight environment where structural defensive systems prioritize keeping clean sheets.
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because gremio's low scoring average on the road suggests a tight environment where structural defensive systems prioritize keeping clean sheets. Bahia are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Gremio at 0.2. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.
Key Data Signals
Under 2.5 Goals evidence
Gremio's low scoring average on the road suggests a tight environment where structural defensive systems prioritize keeping clean.
Bahia are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Gremio at 0.2.
BTTS rates of 80% for Bahia and 0% for Gremio show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.
What To Watch In The Data
Under 2.5 Goals notes
- The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Corners, cards and shots
Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.
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Useful next reads
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.
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Player stats
Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.
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Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
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Recent form
Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.
Bahia
Gremio
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Head-to-head
Recent meetings and how much they still matter.
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Season team stats
Serie A
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League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bahia | 26 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
| 16 | Gremio | 21 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -3 |
Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
Next step
Betting context
Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.
