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Atalanta crestAtalanta
v
Sassuolo crestSassuolo

Serie A | Sun 23 Aug, 19:45

Atalanta v Sassuolo Stats

Data last updated: Mon 21 Sep 2026, 15:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atalanta face Sassuolo in Serie A on Sun 23 Aug, 19:45. Atalanta conceded only 15 home league goals last season, with just Roma allowing fewer, giving Sarri a strong defensive base for his Serie A opener. Atalanta's strong home defensive record and Sassuolo's poor away form support a controlled 2-0 home win.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2

  • At 23/20, Under 2 implies roughly 47%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 51%.
  • Sassuolo’s chances of failing to score increase given their current personnel shortages.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 51% for Under 2 sits against roughly 47% implied by the current price. Sassuolo’s chances of failing to score increase given their current personnel shortages.

Model chance vs price51% model chance against roughly 47% implied
Neutral
Sassuolo’s chances of failing to score increase given their.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +4.7 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because atalanta's disciplined home defence limited goals last season, with 12 of 19 home games under 2.5 goals. Andrea Pinamonti was Sassuolo’s leading scorer last season, although Kieron Bowie started against Cesena.

Main risk

Andrea Pinamonti was Sassuolo’s leading scorer last season, although Kieron Bowie started against Cesena.

Key Data Signals

Under 2 evidence

Atalanta's disciplined home defence limited goals last season, with 12 of 19 home games under 2.5 goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2 notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Atalanta wins
1Draws
4Sassuolo wins
01 Mar 2026Sassuolo v Atalanta2-1
09 Nov 2025Atalanta v Sassuolo0-3
17 Feb 2024Atalanta v Sassuolo3-0
03 Jan 2024Atalanta v Sassuolo3-1
20 Aug 2023Sassuolo v Atalanta0-2
04 Feb 2023Sassuolo v Atalanta1-0
Best odds for this sectionAtalanta to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 65% · edge -6.1 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Sassuolo to WinBetUK guide price · model 18%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 23%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
The head-to-head sample gives context for Atalanta to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictionplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atalanta

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Atalanta yet.

Sassuolo

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Sassuolo yet.

Best odds for this sectionSassuolo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 28% · edge +13.8 pts
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Atalanta to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Atalanta Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Sassuolo to WinBetUK guide price · model 18%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 23%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atalanta-
Avg goals scored
Sassuolo-
Atalanta-
Avg goals conceded
Sassuolo-
Atalanta-
BTTS rate
Sassuolo-
Atalanta-
Over 2.5 goals
Sassuolo-
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 48% · edge +3.6 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 35%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionSassuolo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 28% · edge +13.8 pts
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Atalanta to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Atalanta Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Sassuolo to WinBetUK guide price · model 18%
6
Check odds @ 6
Sassuolo Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Atalanta5
Played
Sassuolo5
Atalanta1
Avg goals for
Sassuolo1.8
Atalanta1.4
Avg goals against
Sassuolo1.8
Atalanta1
Clean sheets
Sassuolo0
Best odds for this sectionSassuolo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 28% · edge +13.8 pts
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Load more odds for this section
Atalanta to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Atalanta Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Sassuolo to WinBetUK guide price · model 18%
6
Check odds @ 6
Season data supports Sassuolo Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
10Sassuolo752120
11Atalanta65203-2
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Atalanta Over 2.5
-Sassuolo Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Sassuolo’s chances of failing to score increase given their current personnel shortages.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Atalanta v Sassuolo prediction

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Betting context

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