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Can the Cowboys Compound Washington’s Woes in this Christmas Day Clash?
The NFL’s festive schedule offers a unique backdrop for the latest chapter in one of the league’s most storied rivalries, as the Dallas Cowboys travel to Landover, Maryland, to face the Washington Commanders on Christmas Day. Read on for our best betting tips for this match.
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NFL betting tips: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders predictions
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This game may lack playoff tension, but it does not lack for compelling individual battles. Terry McLaurin has been the lone consistent spark in a gloomy month for the Commanders, accounting for a significant portion of their offensive highlights. His recent strike rate—scoring in 60% of his last five games—combined with his high yards-per-catch average, paints the picture of a receiver who is arguably playing his best football of the season right now. Against a Dallas defence that has been generous through the air, and with a backup quarterback likely locking onto him as the primary read, backing McLaurin to cross the whitewash offers a reasoned, evidence-based route into this Christmas fixture.
- The Commanders are currently allowing 8.3 passing yards per attempt, the highest figure in the entire league.
- Washington’s defence has struggled on the ground, conceding the third-most rushing yards to running backs this season.
- The hosts have managed to secure just one victory in their last ten fixtures.
Cowboys vs Commanders — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
With Washington down to a third-string quarterback, the market heavily favours the visiting Cowboys to secure the Christmas Day win.
The line is set at a full touchdown, with the model suggesting the Cowboys’ offensive firepower is likely to cover.
With Washington relying on a backup QB, the market is finely balanced, offering equal prices on both sides of the 50.5 line.
Terry McLaurin remains the primary weapon for Washington. His yardage line reflects his status as the key outlet for the backup QB.
Kick-off is scheduled for 6pm GMT at Northwest Stadium, with Netflix providing the broadcast for this opening game of the day’s triple-header. While the holiday season usually brings hope, the context surrounding this NFC East clash is one of reflection and rebuilding for two franchises that have already seen their playoff aspirations extinguished.
Defensive Struggle: Washington’s Aerial Weakness
The Commanders have struggled to stop opposing quarterbacks all season, a vulnerability the Cowboys are well-equipped to exploit.
Washington allows more passing yards per attempt than any other team in the NFL, creating significant opportunities for Dak Prescott.
Their only victory in recent months came against the struggling Giants, highlighting the depth of their current slump.
Key Threat: Terry McLaurin’s Efficiency
Despite the team’s struggles, McLaurin remains an elite deep threat capable of changing the game in a single play.
Ranking 6th in the league for yards per catch, he offers the explosiveness Washington needs to bypass the Dallas defence.
McLaurin has found the endzone in three of his last five outings, proving he is the go-to target in the red zone.
For the Washington Commanders, the 2025 campaign has unravelled in dramatic fashion. Sitting at 4-11, the hosts have managed just a single victory in their last ten outings—a solitary win against the struggling New York Giants that stands as a lonely bright spot in a difficult few months. Their recent form was compounded by a disappointing 29-18 defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday, a result that further highlighted the gap between them and the division’s elite.
The mood in Landover is undoubtedly sombre, exacerbated by a quarterback crisis that sees them down to their third-string option. With starter Jayden Daniels out for the season and backup Marcus Mariota exiting the last game with hand and quad injuries, the offence faces a steep challenge to find cohesion against a bitter rival.
The visiting Dallas Cowboys arrive in a similarly frustrated state, albeit with a slightly superior 6-8-1 record. Their faint hopes of finding a path to the postseason were finally crushed last week following a third successive home defeat, this time at the hands of the Los Angeles Chargers. That loss has left ‘America’s Team’ playing purely for pride, yet the motivation to sweep a divisional opponent remains a powerful driver. Dallas will be looking to replicate the dominance they displayed back in Week Seven, where they dismantled the Commanders 44-22 at AT&T Stadium. That previous encounter saw the Cowboys’ offence firing on all cylinders, and they will view this trip to Maryland as the perfect opportunity to rediscover that rhythm and end a turbulent season on a more positive note.
Despite the lack of playoff implications, this fixture carries significant weight for the players involved. Late-season games between eliminated teams often transform into auditions for the future, with roster spots for the following year on the line. For Washington, playing on a grass surface at home on Christmas Day offers a final chance to give their suffering fanbase something to cheer about before the offseason begins. For Dallas, it is a chance to prove that their offence, which posted 244 passing yards against a stingy Chargers defence last week, still possesses elite firepower. As families settle in for their Christmas dinner, this game promises the grit and intensity that only an NFC East rivalry can deliver, regardless of the standings.
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Terry McLaurin To Score A Touchdown 2/1
While the Commanders’ season has been disappointing, the recent form of wide receiver Terry McLaurin offers a distinct bright spot that points toward value in the touchdown market. Despite the team’s struggles, McLaurin has emerged as a potent scoring threat in the latter stages of the campaign, making him the most logical candidate to find the end zone on Christmas Day.
The most compelling argument for McLaurin lies in his recent production. A glance at his game log reveals a player who has found his rhythm when it matters most—in the red zone. McLaurin has scored three touchdowns this season, and crucially, all three of those scores have come within his last five games. This recent surge suggests he has become the focal point of the offence, regardless of the chaotic quarterback situation around him.
He found the end zone in the recent victory over the New York Giants on December 15, a game where Washington scored 29 points. Prior to that, he scored in a tight overtime loss to the Denver Broncos on December 1, and also registered a touchdown against the formidable Kansas City Chiefs back in October. This ability to score against varying levels of opposition—from the struggling Giants to the championship-calibre Chiefs—demonstrates his versatility and reliability.
Furthermore, McLaurin’s role as the primary deep threat is undeniable. He is averaging 15.9 yards per reception this season, a figure that ranks him 6th in the league in that category. This explosiveness means he doesn’t necessarily need a long, sustained drive to score; he is capable of breaking a big play at any moment. In the game against Denver alone, he racked up 96 receiving yards, showcasing his ability to dominate defensive backfields. Even in a heavy defeat to Minnesota where the team was shut out, he was still targeted, and he bounced back the very next week with a score against New York.
The quarterback situation for Washington is undeniably far from ideal, with third-stringer Josh Johnson likely under centre due to injuries to Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota. However, backup quarterbacks often rely heavily on their most talented veteran receiver to bail them out of trouble. McLaurin, with his experience and route-running acumen, is the safety valve Johnson will look for when the play breaks down or when they get into scoring range. With 29 receptions for 462 yards on the season, McLaurin is the engine of this passing attack.
The matchup against Dallas also presents opportunities. The Cowboys have allowed the second-most passing yards per attempt in the NFL this season. Their secondary has proven vulnerable, and they gave up 44 points to this Washington team (albeit with a different offensive complexion) earlier in the year. If Dallas focuses on stopping the run game, it leaves McLaurin in one-on-one situations on the outside—a scenario he has exploited throughout his career.
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