VfB Stuttgart

1. FC Köln

Bundesliga | Fri 04 Sep, 19:30

VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln Stats

Data last updated: Thu 03 Sep 2026, 08:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Bundesliga fixture features VfB Stuttgart hosting 1. FC Köln in a match poised for attacking intensity. Stuttgart, currently bottom of the table with no points and a leaky defense conceding five goals in their opening game, face a Köln side sitting sixth with three points and a more solid defensive record. Both teams have shown a strong tendency for high-scoring games early in the season, with each registering 100% over 2.5 goals in their recent matches. The tactical setup suggests an open game with defensive vulnerabilities on both sides, setting the stage for multiple goal-scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

Both teams have recorded 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches.
VfB Stuttgart conceded 5 goals in their last game, showing defensive frailty.
FC Köln averages 18 shots and 6 corners per game, indicating offensive pressure.
Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.6 over the last 10 meetings.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Goals with a 58% chance, above the implied market chance of 52.4%, indicating a small positive . Both VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln have demonstrated a strong propensity for high-scoring games, each with 100% over 2.5 goals in recent outings. Offensive metrics such as shots on target and corner counts support an open, attacking match environment. The presence of prolific attackers like T. El Mala for Köln further enhances the likelihood of multiple goals. No data limitations affect in this analysis.

Model Chance58%

Strong positive

Recent Over 2.5 Goals Rate100% both teams

Strong positive

Shots and Offensive PressureHigh shots and corners for Köln

Positive

Head-to-Head Goals Average2.6 goals per match

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking Bundesliga clash with VfB Stuttgart's defensive struggles and 1. FC Köln's offensive firepower likely to produce multiple goals. The teams' recent form and attacking tendencies suggest a lively game with several scoring opportunities, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking dynamics

“Given Stuttgart's defensive vulnerabilities and Köln's potent attackers, this match is primed for a high-scoring outcome. The attacking momentum on both sides should translate into a goal-rich encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have recorded 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches.

VfB Stuttgart conceded 5 goals in their last game, showing defensive frailty.

FC Köln averages 18 shots and 6 corners per game, indicating offensive pressure.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.6 over the last 10 meetings.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored stand at 2.6 per match, indicating a moderately high-scoring head-to-head history.
Recent trends from both teams show consistent over 2.5 goals outcomes, suggesting a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals.
The attacking tendencies and defensive gaps observed in recent games further support the likelihood of a lively, goal-filled contest.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

VfB Stuttgart3

Avg corners for

1. FC Köln6

VfB Stuttgart12

Avg total corners

1. FC Köln13

VfB Stuttgart3

Avg yellow cards

1. FC Köln0

VfB Stuttgart11

Avg shots

1. FC Köln18

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 62% · edge +7.3 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 58%

Check odds @ 2

Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price

Check odds @ 2

Köln averages 6 corners and 18 shots per game, indicating sustained offensive pressure and frequent attacking phases. Stuttgart's lower corner count and higher yellow card average (3 per game) suggest a team under defensive strain, potentially conceding set-piece opportunities. The combination of high shot volume and fouling intensity points to a dynamic match with numerous attacking and transitional moments.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

VfB Stuttgart1

Avg goals scored

1. FC Köln3

VfB Stuttgart5

Avg goals conceded

1. FC Köln2

VfB Stuttgart100%

BTTS rate

1. FC Köln100%

VfB Stuttgart100%

Over 2.5 goals

1. FC Köln100%

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 52% · edge +5.6 pts

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%

1.11

Check odds @ 1.11

Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

FC Köln have recorded 100% over 2.5 goals and BTTS rates in their recent matches, highlighting a strong trend of open games with goals at both ends. The head-to-head average of 2.6 goals per game supports the potential for multiple goals, with both teams showing offensive intent and defensive vulnerabilities that encourage goal-scoring opportunities.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.6 pts

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

1. FC Köln Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%

3.45

Check odds @ 3.45

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 58%

Check odds @ 2

1. FC Köln to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%

5.5

Check odds @ 5.5

DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%

Check odds @ 5

The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced at 1.91 with a of 58%, indicating a small positive . The reflect a slightly lower implied probability than the model's forecast, suggesting the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game. This price is attractive given the attacking profiles and recent scoring trends of both teams, making the market a reasonable betting opportunity without major price sensitivity concerns.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

VfB Stuttgart

Last 50W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 1L

28 Aug 2026A Bayern München1-5

1. FC Köln

Last 51W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 0D 0L

29 Aug 2026H 1899 Hoffenheim3-2

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

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1. FC Köln Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%

3.45

Check odds @ 3.45

1. FC Köln to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%

5.5

Check odds @ 5.5

DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%

Check odds @ 5

VfB Stuttgart Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 48%

1.14

Check odds @ 1.14

VfB Stuttgart to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

1.48

Check odds @ 1.48

Recent form data shows both teams involved in high-scoring matches, with VfB Stuttgart conceding 5 goals and scoring 1 in their last game, and 1. FC Köln scoring 3 and conceding 2. Both teams have a 100% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent fixtures, indicating a pattern of open, attacking games that favor a high total goals outcome in this match.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6VfB Stuttgart wins

2Draws

21. FC Köln wins

14 Feb 2026VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln3-1

28 Sep 20251. FC Köln v VfB Stuttgart1-2

24 Feb 2024VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln1-1

30 Sep 20231. FC Köln v VfB Stuttgart0-2

18 Feb 2023VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln3-0

19 Nov 20221. FC Köln v VfB Stuttgart2-4

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.6 pts

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

1. FC Köln to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%

5.5

Check odds @ 5.5

DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%

Check odds @ 5

VfB Stuttgart to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

1.48

Check odds @ 1.48

The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 2.6 goals per game, which is moderately high but slightly below the Over 3.5 threshold. While this historical data provides some background, current season form and attacking profiles of both teams offer stronger signals for a higher goal count in this fixture, making the head-to-head a secondary but supportive factor.

Season team stats

Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart1

Played

1. FC Köln1

VfB Stuttgart1

Avg goals for

1. FC Köln3

VfB Stuttgart5

Avg goals against

1. FC Köln2

VfB Stuttgart0

Clean sheets

1. FC Köln0

Best odds for this section1. FC Köln Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts

3.45

Check odds @ 3.45

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1. FC Köln to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%

5.5

Check odds @ 5.5

VfB Stuttgart Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

VfB Stuttgart to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

1.48

Check odds @ 1.48

Season-long stats reveal VfB Stuttgart's defensive frailty, conceding 5 goals early on, while Köln's offensive metrics include high shot volumes and corner counts. Both teams' scoring and conceding patterns support an expectation of multiple goals, aligning well with the Over 3.5 Goals market and reinforcing the likelihood of an open, goal-rich encounter.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
7	1. FC Köln	3	1	1	0	0	1
18	VfB Stuttgart	0	1	0	0	1	-4

The league standings show Stuttgart at the bottom with no points and Köln comfortably placed sixth with 3 points. While standings alone do not dictate match outcomes, Stuttgart's position reflects recent struggles that may translate into defensive vulnerabilities, whereas Köln's higher rank suggests and attacking capability, adding context to the expected high-scoring nature of this fixture.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%VfB Stuttgart Over 2.5

100%1. FC Köln Over 2.5

2.6H2H avg goals

Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored stand at 2.6 per match, indicating a moderately high-scoring head-to-head history. Recent trends from both teams show consistent over 2.5 goals outcomes, suggesting a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals. The attacking tendencies and defensive gaps observed in recent games further support the likelihood of a lively, goal-filled contest.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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VfB Stuttgart

1. FC Köln

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Match Report

Over 3.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

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Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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VfB Stuttgart

1. FC Köln

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