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Tromso crestTromso
v
Valerenga crestValerenga

Eliteserien | Sat 11 Jul, 17:00

Tromso v Valerenga Stats

Data last updated: Wed 05 Aug 2026, 09:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Tromso face Valerenga in Eliteserien on Sat 11 Jul, 17:00. Romssa Arena Gets A Fixture With Teeth. Tromsø’s squad situation is not disastrous, but it is not completely clean either. That is a brutal contrast for a team placed so well in the table.

BT4Y best bet

S, as a single late deviation instantly terminates the viability of the precise score projection

  • At 15/2, S, as a single late deviation instantly terminates the viability of the precise score projection implies roughly 12%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • The issue is that Vålerenga’s games have also been generous to opponents, with 22 goals across their last six matches, 13 of them conceded.
  • Valerenga have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Tromso.
  • Tromso have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the S, as a single late deviation instantly terminates the viability of the precise score projection angle more than a raw.
  • Tromso sit 3 in the table, while Valerenga sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for S, as a single late deviation instantly terminates the viability of the precise score projection sits against roughly 12% implied by the current price. Valerenga have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Tromso. The issue is that Vålerenga’s games have also been generous to opponents, with 22 goals across their last six matches, 13 of them conceded.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 12% implied
Strong positive
Valerenga have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Tromso have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
The issue is that Vålerenga’s games have also been.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Draw is the preferred angle because the issue is that Vålerenga’s games have also been generous to opponents, with that scoring level across their last six matches, 13 of them conceded. Valerenga have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Tromso. Vålerenga are highly explosive but defensively vulnerable, with their last six games seeing twenty-two goals fly in.

Main risk

Vålerenga are highly explosive but defensively vulnerable, with their last six games seeing twenty-two goals fly in.

Key Data Signals

S, as a single late deviation instantly terminates the viability of the precise score projection evidence

The issue is that Vålerenga’s games have also been generous to opponents, with 22 goals across their last.

Valerenga have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Tromso.

Tromso have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Draw angle more than a raw possession edge.

Tromso sit 3 in the table, while Valerenga sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

S, as a single late deviation instantly terminates the viability of the precise score projection notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Tromso3.8
    Avg corners for
    Valerenga7.2
    Tromso8.4
    Avg total corners
    Valerenga10.2
    Tromso1.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Valerenga2.4
    Tromso11
    Avg shots
    Valerenga16.6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    Tromso v Valerenga predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Tromso0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Valerenga1.6
    Tromso1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Valerenga1.6
    Tromso40%
    BTTS rate
    Valerenga60%
    Tromso20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Valerenga60%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 26% · edge +0.8 pts
    3.8
    Check odds @ 3.8
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    Valerenga Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    2.85
    Check odds @ 2.85
    Valerenga to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Tromso Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Draw is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Tromso

    DDLWD
    Last 51W 3D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 4D 2L
    29 May 2026A KFUM Oslo0-0
    25 May 2026H Aalesund1-1
    16 May 2026A Bodo/Glimt0-5
    10 May 2026H Molde2-0
    03 May 2026A Start1-1

    Valerenga

    WLWLD
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    29 May 2026H Kristiansund BK3-1
    25 May 2026A Start0-2
    16 May 2026H Sarpsborg 08 FF3-2
    08 May 2026A Ham-Kam0-1
    03 May 2026H KFUM Oslo2-2
    Market aligned with main pickDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 26% · edge +0.8 pts
    3.8
    Check odds @ 3.8
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    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Valerenga Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    2.85
    Check odds @ 2.85
    Valerenga to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 61%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Tromso Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Tromso to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Tromso wins
    3Draws
    4Valerenga wins
    04 Oct 2025Valerenga v Tromso1-0
    31 May 2025Tromso v Valerenga2-1
    15 Mar 2025Valerenga v Tromso1-4
    01 May 2024Valerenga v Tromso1-0
    17 Mar 2024Valerenga v Tromso3-1
    03 Dec 2023Valerenga v Tromso1-1
    Market aligned with main pickDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 26% · edge +0.8 pts
    3.8
    Check odds @ 3.8
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    Valerenga to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Tromso to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Draw, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Eliteserien

    Tromso16
    Played
    Valerenga15
    Tromso2
    Avg goals for
    Valerenga1.5
    Tromso1.1
    Avg goals against
    Valerenga1.8
    Tromso8
    Clean sheets
    Valerenga2
    Best odds for this sectionValerenga Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
    2.85
    Check odds @ 2.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Valerenga to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Tromso Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Tromso to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Season data supports Valerenga Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3Tromso3416104215
    9Valerenga2015627-5
    Tromso sit in position 3, while Valerenga sit in position 9, so table pressure belongs in the S, as a single late deviation instantly terminates the viability of the precise score projection assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Tromso Over 2.5
    60%Valerenga Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Tromso sit at 20% and Valerenga sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Tromso v Valerenga prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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