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San Jose Earthquakes crestSan Jose Earthquakes
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Houston Dynamo crestHouston Dynamo

Major League Soccer | Sun 13 Sep, 03:30

San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Major League Soccer clash features Houston Dynamo visiting San Jose Earthquakes in a contest with playoff implications. Houston currently sits second in the standings with 43 points, showing solid defensive form conceding just 0.6 goals per game recently. San Jose, ranked fifth with 38 points, has struggled defensively, allowing 1.8 goals per game in recent matches. Houston's more consistent form and tighter defense set the stage for a competitive match where the visitors aim to extend their advantage and push for a higher playoff seed.

BT4Y best bet

Houston Dynamo to Win

  • Houston Dynamo ranks 2nd with 43 points, showing strong league form.
  • Dynamo concede only 0.6 goals per game recently, indicating defensive solidity.
  • San Jose Earthquakes have conceded 1.8 goals per game, struggling at the back.
  • Houston averages 13.4 shots per game, more than San Jose's 11, showing attacking edge.
  • Recent form favors Houston with 8 points versus San Jose's 5 in last five matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Houston Dynamo's 58.1% to win reflects their superior recent form, defensive strength, and league standing. Their lower goals conceded rate (0.6) compared to San Jose's 1.8 and higher shot volume (13.4 vs 11) underpin this . The 22.4% at 2.8 indicates strong betting value without price sensitivity. Player data supports this with key attackers Guilherme and M. Bogusz contributing consistent goal threats. No data limitations affect this analysis, making Houston a solid pick to win.

Model Win Probability58.1%
Strong positive
Defensive Record0.6 goals conceded per game (Houston) vs 1.8 (San Jose)
Strong positive
Shot Volume13.4 shots per game (Houston) vs 11 (San Jose)
Positive
Value Edge22.4% positive at 2.8 odds
Strong positive
Player Goal ThreatGuilherme and Bogusz key contributors
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Houston Dynamo's disciplined defense and efficient attack make them the tactical favorite to secure victory. Their recent form and higher league position reflect consistent performance levels, suggesting they can control the match tempo and limit San Jose's scoring opportunities effectively.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Houston Dynamo's defensive resilience combined with their ability to generate quality chances gives them a clear edge in this matchup. Their balance between attack and defense is likely to dictate the game's outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Houston Dynamo to Win evidence

Houston Dynamo ranks 2nd with 43 points, showing strong league form.

Dynamo concede only 0.6 goals per game recently, indicating defensive solidity.

San Jose Earthquakes have conceded 1.8 goals per game, struggling at the back.

Houston averages 13.4 shots per game, more than San Jose's 11, showing attacking edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Houston Dynamo to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3.3, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent matches, suggesting a balanced tempo with potential for multiple goals, driven by transitions and set-piece situations.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

San Jose Earthquakes1
Avg goals scored
Houston Dynamo0.8
San Jose Earthquakes1.8
Avg goals conceded
Houston Dynamo0.6
San Jose Earthquakes60%
BTTS rate
Houston Dynamo40%
San Jose Earthquakes40%
Over 2.5 goals
Houston Dynamo40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 47% · edge +6 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have a 40% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals recently, but San Jose's higher goals conceded (1.8) versus Houston's 0.6 suggests a moderate likelihood of goals. BTTS rates favor San Jose scoring (60%) more than Houston (40%), indicating a balanced but slightly cautious goal outlook.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

San Jose Earthquakes

WDDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
10 Sep 2026A San Diego3-2
06 Sep 2026A Austin1-1
30 Aug 2026A Houston Dynamo0-0
23 Aug 2026H Minnesota United FC1-5
20 Aug 2026A Los Angeles Galaxy0-1

Houston Dynamo

WDDLW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
10 Sep 2026H Real Salt Lake2-1
06 Sep 2026A Charlotte0-0
30 Aug 2026H San Jose Earthquakes0-0
23 Aug 2026A St. Louis City1-2
20 Aug 2026A Vancouver Whitecaps1-0
Market aligned with main pickHouston Dynamo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Houston Dynamo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Houston Dynamo's recent form shows 8 points from the last five matches with a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per game. San Jose has collected 5 points in the same period but struggles defensively, conceding 1.8 goals per game, indicating Houston's momentum advantage.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Houston Dynamo432413475
5San Jose Earthquakes382411587
Houston Dynamo's second-place standing with 43 points versus San Jose's fifth with 38 points reflects consistent performance and league pressure to maintain or improve playoff positioning. This competitive context favors Houston's motivation and tactical discipline.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickHouston Dynamo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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Houston Dynamo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The of 2.8 for Houston Dynamo to win offer clear value given the model's 58.1% win probability. This price reflects an underestimation of Houston's defensive strength and recent form, making the market attractive without requiring caution for price sensitivity.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

San Jose Earthquakes4.4
Avg corners for
Houston Dynamo4.2
San Jose Earthquakes8.4
Avg total corners
Houston Dynamo9.2
San Jose Earthquakes2.4
Avg yellow cards
Houston Dynamo2
San Jose Earthquakes13
Avg shots
Houston Dynamo13.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 60% · edge -4.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Houston averages more corners (4.2) and shots (13.4) than San Jose (3.5 corners, 11 shots), indicating territorial advantage and attacking pressure. San Jose's higher yellow card average (3.5 vs 2) suggests a more aggressive defensive approach, potentially leading to set-piece opportunities for Houston.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2San Jose Earthquakes wins
3Draws
5Houston Dynamo wins
30 Aug 2026Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes0-0
24 Aug 2025Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes1-2
25 May 2025San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo3-3
18 Jul 2024San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo0-1
31 Mar 2024Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes2-1
22 Jun 2023Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes4-1
Market aligned with main pickHouston Dynamo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 3.3 goals per game, indicating open contests. While this supports the potential for goals, it only weakly supports Houston's win as past results have varied, making current form and defensive strength more decisive.
Season team stats

Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes24
Played
Houston Dynamo24
San Jose Earthquakes1.8
Avg goals for
Houston Dynamo1.3
San Jose Earthquakes1.5
Avg goals against
Houston Dynamo1.1
San Jose Earthquakes6
Clean sheets
Houston Dynamo11
Market aligned with main pickHouston Dynamo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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Houston Dynamo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Houston's season-long defensive solidity, conceding fewer goals per game than San Jose, underpins their ability to control matches. Their higher average shots and corners reflect a proactive attacking style, supporting the likelihood of a Houston win based on season trends.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%San Jose Earthquakes Over 2.5
40%Houston Dynamo Over 2.5
3.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3.3, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Both teams have a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent matches, suggesting a balanced tempo with potential for multiple goals, driven by transitions and set-piece situations.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.