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Stoke City crestStoke City
v
Charlton crestCharlton

Championship | Sat 05 Sep, 12:30

Stoke City v Charlton Stats

Data last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026, 07:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Stoke City hosts Charlton in a Championship clash marked by contrasting early-season fortunes. Charlton sit third unbeaten with a disciplined defense conceding just three goals in four matches, while Stoke, positioned 22nd, seek to build on a recent 1-0 clean sheet after a shaky start. Charlton’s pragmatic approach has yielded narrow wins and draws, emphasizing defensive solidity over attacking flair. Stoke’s tactical shift to a back four against Norwich suggests a focus on defensive stability. This encounter tests Stoke’s ability to contain Charlton’s efficient attack amid a likely cautious, low-scoring contest.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 58%, above the 41% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Charlton have conceded only 3 goals in 4 league matches, showing strong defensive discipline.
  • Stoke City recently kept a clean sheet after conceding 9 goals in prior 3 league games.
  • Both teams average around 1 goal scored per match, supporting a low-scoring outlook.
  • Every Charlton league game this season ended with a one-goal margin or draw, indicating tight scorelines.
Price warning

Under 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 58% while the model sits nearer 41% (-17.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 1.83.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The Under 2.5 Goals pick aligns with both teams' defensive records and scoring patterns, suggesting a low-scoring match. Charlton’s consistent concession of just one goal per game and Stoke’s recent defensive improvement underpin this view. However, the current market price is short compared to the model’s 40.5% chance, indicating a negative . This is a football-led selection rather than a pure value bet. Reduced staking or waiting for better is advised unless line-ups or late data improve the outlook.

Charlton Defensive Solidity3 goals conceded in 4 matches
Strong positive
Stoke Defensive ImprovementClean sheet vs Norwich after conceding 9 goals in 3 games
Positive
Low Scoring PatternsBoth teams average ~1 goal per match
Positive
Price SensitivityMarket implies 60% chance vs model 40.5%
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This Under 2.5 Goals selection reflects the tactical caution and defensive discipline both teams have shown early in the season. Charlton’s ability to limit opponents to single goals and Stoke’s recent clean sheet suggest a match unlikely to produce many scoring opportunities. The data supports a tight, low-scoring game where defensive control will be paramount.

Main risk

Risk Factor: If Stoke revert to conceding nine goals in three matches or Charlton exceed 1.5 goals per game, total goals could surpass two.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive discipline and tactical caution

“Charlton’s defensive consistency combined with Stoke’s recent tactical adjustments point to a match where goals will be scarce and defensive organization will dictate the outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Charlton have conceded only 3 goals in 4 league matches, showing strong defensive discipline.

Stoke City recently kept a clean sheet after conceding 9 goals in prior 3 league games.

Both teams average around 1 goal scored per match, supporting a low-scoring outlook.

Every Charlton league game this season ended with a one-goal margin or draw, indicating tight scorelines.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last four meetings between these teams averaged three goals per game, but recent form and tactical setups suggest a shift towards tighter matches.
  • Over the last five matches, both teams have shown a trend towards fewer goals, with defensive organization and controlled tempo reducing scoring opportunities, supporting a cautious approach to goal totals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Stoke City1
Avg goals scored
Charlton1.5
Stoke City2.25
Avg goals conceded
Charlton0.75
Stoke City75%
BTTS rate
Charlton75%
Stoke City75%
Over 2.5 goals
Charlton50%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 58% · edge -17.3 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have shown a tendency for low-scoring matches with Charlton conceding only three goals in four games and Stoke scoring modestly. The BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals context fits the pattern of tight defenses and limited attacking breakthroughs, supporting a low-goal outcome.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Charlton Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Charlton to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Stoke City Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.67 with an implied chance of 60%, which is significantly higher than the model’s 40.5% probability. This indicates the price is short and the selection is price-sensitive rather than a clear value bet. Improved or stronger late data would enhance the value proposition.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Stoke City2.5
Avg corners for
Charlton4.75
Stoke City7.75
Avg total corners
Charlton10.5
Stoke City3
Avg yellow cards
Charlton1.25
Stoke City9.25
Avg shots
Charlton9.75
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +5.7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Charlton average 4.75 corners per game compared to Stoke’s 2.5, indicating Charlton’s slightly greater attacking pressure. Stoke’s higher average yellow cards (3 per game) versus Charlton’s 1.25 suggests Stoke may face discipline challenges, potentially disrupting rhythm. Shot volumes are balanced, with both teams averaging around 9 shots per game but low shots on target, reinforcing a controlled tempo.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Stoke City

WLLL
Last 51W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 3L
01 Sep 2026H Norwich1-0
29 Aug 2026A Wolves1-4
22 Aug 2026A Southampton1-3
15 Aug 2026H Swansea1-2

Charlton

DWWW
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
02 Sep 2026A West Brom1-1
29 Aug 2026H Preston1-0
22 Aug 2026A West Ham2-1
15 Aug 2026H Derby2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Charlton Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Charlton to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Stoke City Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Stoke City to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Recent form data shows Charlton’s defensive consistency with only 0.75 goals conceded per game and Stoke’s recent improvement with a clean sheet after conceding heavily earlier. Both teams have low scoring rates, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring match consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals pick.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Stoke City wins
0Draws
2Charlton wins
11 Feb 2026Charlton v Stoke City1-0
25 Nov 2025Stoke City v Charlton3-0
08 Feb 2020Stoke City v Charlton3-1
10 Aug 2019Charlton v Stoke City3-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Charlton to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Stoke City to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The head-to-head sample of four matches is limited but shows a balance with two wins each, often decided by two-goal margins. However, recent league form and tactical adjustments indicate a move towards tighter, lower-scoring encounters, making the historical high-margin results less predictive for this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Championship

Stoke City4
Played
Charlton4
Stoke City1
Avg goals for
Charlton1.5
Stoke City2.3
Avg goals against
Charlton0.8
Stoke City1
Clean sheets
Charlton1
Best odds for this sectionCharlton Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
Charlton to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Stoke City Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Stoke City to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Season-long stats reveal Charlton’s defensive strength, conceding fewer goals and maintaining tight margins in matches. Stoke’s season shows a struggle to score and a recent defensive adjustment. These profiles support a match where goals are limited, aligning with the Under 2.5 Goals market.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Charlton1043103
22Stoke City34103-5
Charlton’s high league position reflects their defensive solidity and efficient point accumulation through narrow wins and draws. Stoke’s low standing highlights early struggles but recent defensive improvements. The standings underscore the tactical contrast and suggest a cautious game with limited scoring chances.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Stoke City Over 2.5
50%Charlton Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The last four meetings between these teams averaged three goals per game, but recent form and tactical setups suggest a shift towards tighter matches. Over the last five matches, both teams have shown a trend towards fewer goals, with defensive organization and controlled tempo reducing scoring opportunities, supporting a cautious approach to goal totals.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Stoke City v Charlton prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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