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Southampton crestSouthampton

Championship | Sat 05 Sep, 12:30

Lincoln v Southampton Stats

Data last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026, 07:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Southampton arrive at Lincoln with a potent attack that has netted 10 goals in four Championship matches, though they remain winless away from home this season. Lincoln have shown defensive resilience, securing consecutive clean sheets largely thanks to goalkeeper George Wickens' league-leading 4.5 saves per game. Despite their modest scoring record, Lincoln's momentum and recent unbeaten run suggest they can find the net. The tactical battle will test whether Southampton's high-volume shooting and transition threat can break through Lincoln's disciplined defense, while Lincoln's counterattacking and set-piece opportunities offer chances to score against a Southampton side still seeking their first away win.

BT4Y best bet

Southampton to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Southampton have scored 10 goals in four matches, showing strong attacking form.
  • Lincoln goalkeeper George Wickens averages 4.5 saves per game, indicating defensive pressure.
  • Southampton remain winless in two away matches but create numerous chances, especially through Cyle Larin.
  • Lincoln have kept two consecutive clean sheets but have scored only three goals in four games.
  • Both teams have scored in 50% of Lincoln's matches and 100% of Southampton's matches this season.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Southampton to Win & Both Teams to Score highly due to Southampton's prolific scoring rate of 10 goals in four matches and Lincoln's ability to score despite defensive pressure. Lincoln's goalkeeper faces a high volume of shots, suggesting Southampton's attack can break through. The combination of Southampton's offensive threat and Lincoln's momentum supports a match where both teams score and Southampton secure the win. The current of 3.4 offer positive value against the model's 48.2% chance, making this an attractive selection without significant price caution.

Southampton scoring rate10 goals in 4 matches
Strong positive
Lincoln defensive pressure4.5 saves per game by goalkeeper
Positive
Southampton away formWinless but high shot volume
Neutral
Lincoln scoring ability3 goals in 4 matches
Positive
Odds vs model chance3.4 odds vs 48.2% chance
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Southampton's attacking firepower, led by Cyle Larin's high shot volume and goal threat, should be enough to overcome Lincoln's sturdy defense. Lincoln's recent clean sheets and momentum suggest they will score, but Southampton's quality and shot creation make them likely winners in a competitive match.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and scoring potential

“Southampton's prolific attack combined with Lincoln's defensive resilience sets up a dynamic where both teams are likely to score, but Southampton's superior offensive quality should secure the win.”

Key Data Signals

Southampton to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Southampton have scored 10 goals in four matches, showing strong attacking form.

Lincoln goalkeeper George Wickens averages 4.5 saves per game, indicating defensive pressure.

Southampton remain winless in two away matches but create numerous chances, especially through Cyle Larin.

Lincoln have kept two consecutive clean sheets but have scored only three goals in four games.

What To Watch In The Data

Southampton to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last five matches, Southampton have a 75% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, indicating matches with multiple goals and open play.
  • Lincoln's 50% rate supports a moderate likelihood of higher scoring games.
  • The single head-to-head meeting averaged 3 goals, reinforcing the trend for a lively, goal-rich encounter with attacking tempo from both sides.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lincoln5
Avg corners for
Southampton6.25
Lincoln12.25
Avg total corners
Southampton11.25
Lincoln2.25
Avg yellow cards
Southampton2.5
Lincoln12.75
Avg shots
Southampton17.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Southampton average 6.25 corners and 17.25 shots per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure. Lincoln average 5 corners and 12.75 shots, showing they can create chances too. Both teams have similar yellow card averages, suggesting a balanced contest with moderate fouling and set-piece opportunities influencing the match flow.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lincoln0.75
Avg goals scored
Southampton2.5
Lincoln1.25
Avg goals conceded
Southampton1.25
Lincoln50%
BTTS rate
Southampton100%
Lincoln50%
Over 2.5 goals
Southampton75%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have shown scoring capability this season, with Southampton netting in every match and Lincoln scoring in half. Southampton's 10 goals in four games contrast with Lincoln's three, but Lincoln's momentum and recent clean sheets suggest they can find the net, supporting a BTTS outcome alongside Southampton's likely win.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSouthampton to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.2 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Southampton Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The of 3.4 for Southampton to Win & Both Teams to Score reflect a positive value opportunity, with the model estimating a 48.2% chance. This pricing rewards the expectation of Southampton's strong attack breaking through Lincoln's defense while Lincoln also scoring, making the market attractive without being overpriced.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lincoln

DWLL
Last 51W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 2L
01 Sep 2026H Blackburn0-0
29 Aug 2026A Bolton1-0
22 Aug 2026H Portsmouth1-3
15 Aug 2026A Middlesbrough1-2

Southampton

DWWL
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
01 Sep 2026A Birmingham1-1
29 Aug 2026H Millwall5-1
22 Aug 2026H Stoke City3-1
16 Aug 2026A Watford1-2
Market aligned with main pickSouthampton to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.2 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Southampton Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Southampton have collected 7 points from four matches, scoring 2.5 goals per game but conceding 1.25, reflecting an open style with attacking intent. Lincoln have 4 points, scoring 0.75 goals and conceding 1.25 per game, showing defensive improvement but limited scoring. Southampton's higher BTTS rate (100%) compared to Lincoln's (50%) supports the expectation of goals from both sides.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Lincoln wins
0Draws
1Southampton wins
20 Dec 2022Southampton v Lincoln2-1
Market aligned with main pickSouthampton to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.2 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The limited head-to-head sample of one match shows an average of 3 goals scored, supporting the expectation of a competitive game with multiple goals. While the sample is small, the previous meeting aligns with current form trends suggesting both teams can score and Southampton's attack can prevail.
Season team stats

Championship

Lincoln4
Played
Southampton4
Lincoln0.8
Avg goals for
Southampton2.5
Lincoln1.3
Avg goals against
Southampton1.3
Lincoln2
Clean sheets
Southampton0
Market aligned with main pickSouthampton to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.2 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Southampton Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Southampton's season stats show a potent attack with 10 goals in four games and a tendency to concede, especially away, aligning with the pick for both teams to score. Lincoln's defensive stats include two clean sheets but rely heavily on goalkeeper saves, indicating vulnerability to sustained pressure. Their modest scoring output suggests they can score but may struggle to contain Southampton's offense.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
17Lincoln44112-2
18Southampton342115
Both teams sit mid-table with Lincoln 17th and Southampton 18th, reflecting a competitive but not top-tier status. The standings suggest both sides have room to improve, with Southampton eager to secure their first away win and Lincoln aiming to maintain momentum, adding competitive stakes to the fixture without overwhelming pressure.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Lincoln Over 2.5
75%Southampton Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last five matches, Southampton have a 75% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, indicating matches with multiple goals and open play. Lincoln's 50% rate supports a moderate likelihood of higher scoring games. The single head-to-head meeting averaged 3 goals, reinforcing the trend for a lively, goal-rich encounter with attacking tempo from both sides.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Lincoln v Southampton prediction

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