West Ham

Derby

Championship | Sat 05 Sep, 15:00

West Ham v Derby Stats

Data last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026, 07:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

West Ham and Derby meet at the London Stadium with both sides having recently secured their first Championship wins of the season. West Ham's attack is in strong form, having scored 15 goals in six competitive matches but without keeping a clean sheet, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Derby, recovering from a four-match winless run, showed efficiency in their 2-0 victory at Portsmouth but continue to struggle defensively, compounded by injury doubts in central defense. This clash features West Ham's potent offense against Derby's fragile defense, setting up a contest where both teams are likely to score despite West Ham's home advantage and scoring momentum.

BT4Y best bet

West Ham to Win & Both Teams to Score

West Ham have scored 15 goals in six competitive matches but have yet to keep a clean sheet.
Derby have conceded nine goals in their last five matches, with defensive injuries impacting stability.
Both teams have conceded seven goals in four Championship fixtures, indicating defensive openness.
West Ham’s recent 4-2 and 4-0 wins underline their attacking firepower and defensive risks.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates West Ham to Win & Both Teams to Score positively with a 38.2% chance, above the implied market probability of 32.3%, giving a 5.9% . West Ham's high scoring rate combined with their defensive frailty aligns with Derby's ability to score despite their own defensive struggles. The match context supports a scenario where West Ham's attack breaks through while Derby also finds the net, making this combined market a logical choice. No price warning is needed as the fairly reflect the model's assessment.

West Ham scoring form15 goals in 6 matches

Strong positive

West Ham defensive recordNo clean sheets, 7 goals conceded in 4 league games

Neutral

Derby defensive issues9 goals conceded in last 5 matches, injury doubts

Positive

Derby scoring ability6 goals in last 5 matches

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

West Ham's attacking momentum and home advantage give them a clear edge to win, while Derby's recent ability to score despite defensive challenges suggests both teams will find the net. This bet captures the tactical balance of West Ham's firepower and defensive exposure against Derby's opportunistic scoring.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome and goals

“West Ham's potent offense paired with Derby's defensive vulnerabilities makes a home win with both teams scoring a compelling tactical and statistical outcome.”

Key Data Signals

West Ham to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

West Ham have scored 15 goals in six competitive matches but have yet to keep a clean sheet.

Derby have conceded nine goals in their last five matches, with defensive injuries impacting stability.

Both teams have conceded seven goals in four Championship fixtures, indicating defensive openness.

West Ham’s recent 4-2 and 4-0 wins underline their attacking firepower and defensive risks.

What To Watch In The Data

West Ham to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

In the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3, indicating a tendency for open, goal-rich games.
Both teams' recent matches have featured high goal totals and BTTS outcomes, reinforcing the expectation of over 2.5 goals and goals from both sides in this encounter.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

West Ham7.5

Avg corners for

Derby6

West Ham12.25

Avg total corners

Derby12.5

West Ham2.25

Avg yellow cards

Derby4

West Ham15.25

Avg shots

Derby11.5

Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%

1.28

Check odds @ 1.28

Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

West Ham averages 15.25 shots and 7.5 corners per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. Derby's 11.5 shots and 4.5 corners show they can create chances despite being under pressure. The card averages suggest a moderately physical game, with Derby accumulating more yellows, possibly reflecting defensive struggles and fouling under pressure.

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Useful next reads

more Championship analysis full betting preview for West Ham v Derby corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub football predictions hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

West Ham2

Avg goals scored

Derby1.25

West Ham1.75

Avg goals conceded

Derby1.75

West Ham100%

BTTS rate

Derby50%

West Ham75%

Over 2.5 goals

Derby75%

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 72% vs implied 58% · edge +14.5 pts

1.73

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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%

1.22

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 65%

Check odds @ 2

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%

2.75

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Both teams have shown a tendency to concede and score goals recently, with West Ham scoring 15 and conceding 7 in six matches, and Derby scoring 6 and conceding 9 in five. This balance of attacking potency and defensive fragility on both sides supports a high probability of goals from both teams in this fixture.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickWest Ham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 84% · edge -21.7 pts

1.19

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 72%

1.73

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Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 67%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 65%

Check odds @ 2

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%

1.28

Check odds @ 1.28

West Ham to WinBetfred guide price · model 53%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

The for West Ham to Win & Both Teams to Score at 3.1 reflect a reasonable value opportunity, with the model's 38.2% chance exceeding the implied 32.3% market probability. This suggests the market slightly underestimates the likelihood of both teams scoring alongside a West Ham win, justifying the selection without major price sensitivity.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

West Ham

WDLD

Last 51W 2D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 2D 1L

01 Sep 2026H Wolves4-2

29 Aug 2026A Watford1-1

22 Aug 2026H Charlton1-2

16 Aug 2026A Burnley2-2

Derby

WLDL

Last 51W 1D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 1D 2L

01 Sep 2026A Portsmouth2-0

29 Aug 2026H Swansea0-3

22 Aug 2026H Cardiff2-2

15 Aug 2026A Charlton1-2

Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 80% vs implied 91% · edge -11.1 pts

1.1

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West Ham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%

1.19

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West Ham to WinBetfred guide price · model 53%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

West Ham's recent form features 5 points from their last matches with a 75% over 2.5 goals rate and 100% BTTS rate, reflecting high-scoring games with goals at both ends. Derby's form is slightly less prolific but still features a 75% over 2.5 rate and 50% BTTS rate, indicating they can contribute goals but less consistently. This recent form data aligns well with the combined bet selection.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2West Ham wins

0Draws

1Derby wins

30 Jan 2023Derby v West Ham0-2

31 Dec 2011Derby v West Ham2-1

26 Nov 2011West Ham v Derby3-1

Market aligned with main pickWest Ham to WinBetfred guide price · Model 53% vs implied 74% · edge -20.6 pts

1.36

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 72%

1.73

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 65%

Check odds @ 2

The three recent meetings between West Ham and Derby have averaged 3 goals per game, supporting an open game with scoring opportunities for both sides. While the sample is limited, the historical trend aligns with current form and defensive vulnerabilities, providing moderate support for the combined bet.

Season team stats

Championship

West Ham4

Played

Derby4

West Ham2

Avg goals for

Derby1.3

West Ham1.8

Avg goals against

Derby1.8

West Ham0

Clean sheets

Derby1

Market aligned with main pickWest Ham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 84% · edge -21.7 pts

1.19

Check odds @ 1.19

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West Ham to WinBetfred guide price · model 53%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

West Ham's season stats show a strong attack averaging 2 goals per league game but a leaky defense conceding 1.75 goals per game, while Derby mirrors the defensive frailty with similar goals conceded and a lower scoring average. This season-long pattern supports a match with multiple goals and both teams scoring, fitting the combined market.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
12	West Ham	5	4	1	2	1	1
16	Derby	4	4	1	1	2	-2

West Ham sits 12th with 5 points, slightly ahead of Derby in 16th with 4 points. While the table positions are mid-lower, both teams are motivated to build momentum early in the Championship season. The standings suggest a competitive fixture where West Ham's home advantage and scoring form give them the edge, but Derby's need for points supports their attacking intent.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%West Ham Over 2.5

75%Derby Over 2.5

3H2H avg goals

In the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3, indicating a tendency for open, goal-rich games. Both teams' recent matches have featured high goal totals and BTTS outcomes, reinforcing the expectation of over 2.5 goals and goals from both sides in this encounter.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

West Ham v Derby Stats

Match Report

West Ham to Win & Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Football Stats Hub

West Ham v Derby Stats

Match Report

West Ham to Win & Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

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Derby

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