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Sport Recife crestSport Recife
v
Londrina crestLondrina

Serie B | Sat 15 Aug, 00:30

Sport Recife v Londrina Stats

Data last updated: Fri 14 Aug 2026, 07:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sport Recife hosts Londrina in a Serie B clash where home advantage and recent form heavily favor Sport Recife. The home side has accumulated 32 points, sitting comfortably in 10th place, while Londrina lags in 17th with 20 points. Sport Recife's attacking play, led by key creators, has been more effective, and their recent performances show better momentum. Londrina's struggles in front of goal and defensive vulnerabilities add to the challenge they face away from home. This match presents a tactical battle with Sport Recife expected to control tempo and exploit Londrina's inconsistencies.

BT4Y best bet

Sport Recife to Win

  • Sport Recife holds a strong home form edge with 32 points versus Londrina's 20.
  • Sport Recife averages 1.6 goals per game compared to Londrina's 0.6, indicating superior attack.
  • Londrina concedes more frequently, with 1.6 goals against per match, versus Sport Recife's 1.4.
  • Sport Recife's BTTS rate is 80%, showing offensive threat and defensive lapses in matches.
  • The model estimates a 72.6% chance for Sport Recife to win, reflecting solid .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Sport Recife to win with a 72.6% probability, supported by their superior recent form and home advantage. Sport Recife's higher goal-scoring rate and stronger defensive record compared to Londrina underpin this . The team's ability to create chances and maintain pressure is evident in their shot and key pass statistics. Londrina's lower scoring output and defensive frailties further enhance Sport Recife's chances. No price warning is needed as the reflect good value relative to the model's assessment.

Home AdvantageSport Recife ranked 10th with 32 points at home
Strong positive
Goal ScoringSport Recife averages 1.6 goals per game vs Londrina's 0.6
Strong positive
Defensive RecordLondrina concedes 1.6 goals per game, higher than Sport Recife's 1.4
Positive
Model Confidence72.6% chance for Sport Recife to win
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sport Recife's home form and attacking efficiency make them the clear favorite in this Serie B encounter. Their ability to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity contrasts with Londrina's struggles, making a home win the most logical outcome. The data and tactical context both support backing Sport Recife to secure victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Sport Recife's superior attacking numbers and home advantage create a compelling case for their victory, especially given Londrina's defensive vulnerabilities and lower scoring rate.”

Key Data Signals

Sport Recife to Win evidence

Sport Recife holds a strong home form edge with 32 points versus Londrina's 20.

Sport Recife averages 1.6 goals per game compared to Londrina's 0.6, indicating superior attack.

Londrina concedes more frequently, with 1.6 goals against per match, versus Sport Recife's 1.4.

Sport Recife's BTTS rate is 80%, showing offensive threat and defensive lapses in matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Sport Recife to Win notes

  • The last seven head-to-head matches average 3.29 goals per game, indicating a tendency for open, goal-rich encounters.
  • Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rate of 40% suggests moderate likelihood of multiple goals, with Sport Recife's offensive edge increasing chances for a higher scoring game.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Sport Recife5.2
Avg corners for
Londrina7
Sport Recife12.6
Avg total corners
Londrina13.2
Sport Recife2.8
Avg yellow cards
Londrina2
Sport Recife14.4
Avg shots
Londrina16.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Londrina averages more corners (7.0) than Sport Recife (5.2), indicating their attacking play often results in set-piece opportunities. Sport Recife's higher average shots on target (4.4) versus Londrina's (3.5) shows better finishing threat. Discipline is fairly balanced, with Sport Recife averaging 2.8 yellows and Londrina 2.25, suggesting moderate card risk.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sport Recife1.6
Avg goals scored
Londrina0.6
Sport Recife1.4
Avg goals conceded
Londrina1.6
Sport Recife80%
BTTS rate
Londrina60%
Sport Recife40%
Over 2.5 goals
Londrina40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have a 40% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, but Sport Recife's 80% BTTS rate suggests their games often feature goals at both ends. Londrina's 60% BTTS rate indicates they also concede and score regularly, pointing to a potentially open game with goals from both sides.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSport Recife to WinBetUK guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +12.7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Sport Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The for Sport Recife to win at 1.67 offer good value given the model's 72.6% win probability. This pricing reflects in the home side's form and attacking capabilities, making it a positive value bet rather than a price-sensitive angle.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sport Recife

WDDDD
Last 51W 4D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 7D 2L
08 Aug 2026A Vila Nova1-0
27 Jul 2026H Cuiaba1-1
23 Jul 2026A Goias1-1
18 Jul 2026H Operario-PR2-2
11 Jul 2026H Botafogo SP3-3

Londrina

LLLDD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
10 Aug 2026A Goias0-1
26 Jul 2026H Novorizontino1-4
23 Jul 2026A Nautico Recife1-2
18 Jul 2026H Botafogo SP0-0
13 Jul 2026A America Mineiro1-1
Market aligned with main pickSport Recife to WinBetUK guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +12.7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Sport Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Sport Recife has collected 7 points recently, reflecting improved form and attacking output averaging 1.6 goals per game. Londrina's 2 points and 0.6 goals per game highlight their struggles to score and gain momentum. This form disparity favors Sport Recife to control the match and secure a win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Sport Recife wins
0Draws
1Londrina wins
05 Apr 2026Londrina v Sport Recife1-2
24 Sep 2023Sport Recife v Londrina4-0
04 Jun 2023Londrina v Sport Recife1-2
22 Oct 2022Londrina v Sport Recife2-1
09 Jul 2022Sport Recife v Londrina2-0
24 Sep 2019Londrina v Sport Recife1-2
Market aligned with main pickSport Recife to WinBetUK guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +12.7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The seven previous meetings between these teams have produced an average of 3.29 goals per match, suggesting a history of open games. While this supports the potential for goals, it only weakly supports the home win pick as past results have varied, so current form and home advantage are more decisive.
Season team stats

Serie B

Sport Recife22
Played
Londrina22
Sport Recife1.3
Avg goals for
Londrina1.3
Sport Recife0.9
Avg goals against
Londrina1.5
Sport Recife8
Clean sheets
Londrina4
Market aligned with main pickSport Recife to WinBetUK guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +12.7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Sport Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Sport Recife's season stats show a balanced attack and defense with 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, supporting their ability to win at home. Londrina's lower scoring and higher concession rates underline their defensive vulnerabilities and limited offensive threat, reinforcing the home side's advantage.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Sport Recife352281138
17Londrina20225512-6
Sport Recife's 10th place and 32 points position them comfortably above the relegation zone, allowing them to play with . Londrina's 17th place and 20 points place them under pressure to improve results, which may lead to riskier tactics and defensive exposure in this away fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Sport Recife Over 2.5
40%Londrina Over 2.5
3.29H2H avg goals
The last seven head-to-head matches average 3.29 goals per game, indicating a tendency for open, goal-rich encounters. Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rate of 40% suggests moderate likelihood of multiple goals, with Sport Recife's offensive edge increasing chances for a higher scoring game.

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