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Ponte Preta crestPonte Preta
v
Nautico Recife crestNautico Recife

Serie B | Fri 14 Aug, 23:30

Ponte Preta v Nautico Recife Stats

Data last updated: Thu 13 Aug 2026, 06:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ponte Preta and Nautico Recife meet in a Serie B clash where both sides have shown tendencies to concede and score. Ponte Preta struggles near the bottom of the table with only 9 points, while Nautico Recife sits mid-table with 26 points. Ponte Preta's recent form includes a high rate of matches with goals at both ends, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities and attacking intent. Nautico Recife, despite a more stable position, also concedes regularly but maintains a balanced attack. This fixture promises open play with both teams likely to find the net, given their offensive and defensive patterns.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Ponte Preta has an 80% BTTS rate in recent matches, indicating frequent goals conceded and scored.
  • Nautico Recife averages 13.4 shots per game, showing offensive activity capable of breaking down defenses.
  • Both teams have conceded multiple goals recently, supporting the likelihood of goals at both ends.
  • The head-to-head average goals stand at 1.8, suggesting moderately open games between these sides.
  • Ponte Preta's 60% Over 2.5 goals rate complements the BTTS trend, highlighting attacking openness.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance for both teams to score, reflecting strong offensive output and defensive frailties on both sides. Ponte Preta's 80% BTTS rate and Nautico Recife's consistent shot volume underline the likelihood of goals from each team. The price at 1.73 offers positive value with an 18.2% edge. Both teams' recent form and season-long stats support an open game with goals at both ends, making BTTS a compelling pick. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Ponte Preta BTTS Rate80%
Strong positive
Nautico Recife Average Shots13.4 per game
Positive
Model Chance76%
Strong positive
Value Edge18.2%
Strong positive
Recent Goals ConcededPonte Preta 2.0, Nautico Recife 1.2 per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown vulnerabilities at the back while maintaining offensive threat, making both teams to score a logical choice. Ponte Preta's home struggles and Nautico Recife's attacking players suggest a match where goals at both ends are probable. The data-driven BTTS pick aligns well with the tactical openness and recent scoring patterns of both sides.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS market rationale

“This fixture features two teams that balance attacking intent with defensive lapses, creating a fertile ground for goals at both ends. The BTTS market captures this dynamic effectively, reflecting the match's likely open nature.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Ponte Preta has an 80% BTTS rate in recent matches, indicating frequent goals conceded and scored.

Nautico Recife averages 13.4 shots per game, showing offensive activity capable of breaking down defenses.

Both teams have conceded multiple goals recently, supporting the likelihood of goals at both ends.

The head-to-head average goals stand at 1.8, suggesting moderately open games between these sides.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals in head-to-head meetings is 1.8, indicating moderately open games.
  • Ponte Preta's 60% Over 2.5 goals rate and Nautico Recife's 40% rate suggest a reasonable tempo and goal-scoring frequency.
  • This trend panel supports the expectation of goals from both teams, aligning with the BTTS market.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ponte Preta1
Avg goals scored
Nautico Recife0.8
Ponte Preta2
Avg goals conceded
Nautico Recife1.2
Ponte Preta80%
BTTS rate
Nautico Recife60%
Ponte Preta60%
Over 2.5 goals
Nautico Recife40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have shown a strong tendency to score and concede this season. Ponte Preta's 80% BTTS rate and Nautico Recife's 60% rate, combined with average goals per game and shot volumes, indicate a high probability of goals at both ends. The head-to-head average of 1.8 goals supports a moderately open game, reinforcing the BTTS outlook.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ponte Preta

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 9L
08 Aug 2026A Ceara0-2
28 Jul 2026H Athletic Club1-1
22 Jul 2026A Operario-PR2-3
18 Jul 2026H Goias1-2
09 Jul 2026H Criciuma1-2

Nautico Recife

DDWLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
09 Aug 2026H Atletico Goianiense1-1
26 Jul 2026A Criciuma0-0
23 Jul 2026H Londrina2-1
17 Jul 2026A CRB1-2
12 Jul 2026A Avai0-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 84% vs implied 78% · edge +5.9 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Load more odds for this section
Nautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · model 60%
2
Check odds @ 2
Nautico Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Ponte Preta Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Ponte Preta to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Recent form data shows Ponte Preta scoring 1 goal per game but conceding 2, while Nautico Recife scores 0.8 and concedes 1.2. Both teams have maintained BTTS rates of 80% and 60% respectively, indicating frequent matches with goals at both ends. This recent trend of open games underpins the expectation of goals from both sides in this fixture.

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League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
14Nautico Recife26217590
20Ponte Preta9212316-26
Ponte Preta sits at the bottom of the Serie B table with 9 points, indicating pressure to improve results, likely encouraging attacking play. Nautico Recife's mid-table position with 26 points suggests a more stable approach but still with offensive intent. The standings context implies Ponte Preta may push forward, increasing chances for both teams to score.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Nautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · model 60%
2
Check odds @ 2
Nautico Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Ponte Preta Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Ponte Preta to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The Both Teams to Score market is priced at 1.73 with a of 76%, indicating positive value. The 18.2% suggests the underestimate the likelihood of both teams scoring. This price reflects market in an open game, supported by recent form and shot data, making it a favorable betting angle without price sensitivity concerns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Ponte Preta3
Avg corners for
Nautico Recife5
Ponte Preta6.6
Avg total corners
Nautico Recife10.8
Ponte Preta4
Avg yellow cards
Nautico Recife2.8
Ponte Preta11.2
Avg shots
Nautico Recife13.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
Nautico Recife averages 5 corners per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure, while Ponte Preta averages 2.5. Shot data shows Nautico Recife's offensive activity with 13.4 shots per game and Ponte Preta's 10.5. Card data suggests Ponte Preta is more prone to fouls, which could lead to set-piece opportunities and influence game flow, supporting open play and scoring chances.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Ponte Preta wins
2Draws
2Nautico Recife wins
04 Apr 2026Nautico Recife v Ponte Preta1-0
27 Sep 2025Ponte Preta v Nautico Recife1-1
20 Sep 2025Nautico Recife v Ponte Preta0-1
24 May 2025Nautico Recife v Ponte Preta0-1
05 Nov 2022Nautico Recife v Ponte Preta0-1
20 Jul 2022Ponte Preta v Nautico Recife1-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Nautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · model 60%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Ponte Preta to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The last ten meetings between Ponte Preta and Nautico Recife average 1.8 goals per game, showing a moderate scoring trend. While not overwhelmingly high, this average reflects a balance of offensive opportunities and defensive challenges that supports the possibility of both teams scoring. The head-to-head data provides a relevant background to the BTTS selection without being the sole deciding factor.
Season team stats

Serie B

Ponte Preta21
Played
Nautico Recife21
Ponte Preta0.7
Avg goals for
Nautico Recife1.2
Ponte Preta2
Avg goals against
Nautico Recife1.2
Ponte Preta2
Clean sheets
Nautico Recife6
Best odds for this sectionNautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 50% · edge +10.3 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Nautico Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Ponte Preta Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Ponte Preta to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Season-long stats reveal Ponte Preta's defensive struggles with 2 goals conceded per game and a high BTTS rate of 80%, reflecting vulnerability at the back. Nautico Recife's balanced attack and defense, with 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, also contribute to the BTTS likelihood. These patterns confirm a season profile favoring matches where both teams score.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Ponte Preta Over 2.5
40%Nautico Recife Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals in head-to-head meetings is 1.8, indicating moderately open games. Ponte Preta's 60% Over 2.5 goals rate and Nautico Recife's 40% rate suggest a reasonable tempo and goal-scoring frequency. This trend panel supports the expectation of goals from both teams, aligning with the BTTS market.

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