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Belgium crestBelgium

World Cup | Fri 10 Jul, 20:00

Spain v Belgium Stats

Data last updated: Sat 01 Aug 2026, 05:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Spain face Belgium in World Cup on Fri 10 Jul, 20:00. Despite navigating highly unstable group fixtures, the squad protects an impressive overall undefeated run. Spain enter this quarter-final in supreme defensive form, having kept six consecutive World Cup clean sheets.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Spain Win

  • At 8/13, Spain Win implies roughly 62%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 50%.
  • Spain face Belgium in a World Cup 2026 quarter-final in Los Angeles, with La Roja’s defensive perfection meeting a revived Belgian attack led by.
  • Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 11 for Belgium.
  • Spain have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Spain Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
Price warning

Spain Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 62% while the model sits nearer 50% (-11.5 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Belgium Draw No Bet shows a +13 pts edge at 3.3.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 50% for Spain Win sits against roughly 62% implied by the current price. Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 11 for Belgium. Spain face Belgium in a World Cup 2026 quarter-final in Los Angeles, with La Roja’s defensive perfection meeting a revived Belgian attack led by.

Model chance vs price50% model chance against roughly 62% implied
Negative
Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points.Visible data support
Positive
Spain have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Spain face Belgium in a World Cup 2026 quarter-final.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Spain Win is the preferred angle because spain face Belgium in a World Cup 2026 quarter-final in Los Angeles, with La Roja’s defensive perfection meeting a revived Belgian attack led by De Ketelaere, Tielemans and Lukaku. Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 11 for Belgium. Belgium’s path has been far messier, but perhaps more dramatic.

Main risk

Belgium’s path has been far messier, but perhaps more dramatic.

Key Data Signals

Spain Win evidence

Spain face Belgium in a World Cup 2026 quarter-final in Los Angeles, with La Roja’s defensive perfection meeting.

Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 11 for Belgium.

Spain have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Spain Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Spain Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Spain1.8
    Avg goals scored
    Belgium2.6
    Spain0
    Avg goals conceded
    Belgium1
    Spain0%
    BTTS rate
    Belgium80%
    Spain40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Belgium60%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 50% · edge +4 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 51%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 68%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 40% for Spain and 60% for Belgium, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Spain

    WWWWD
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 0L
    06 Jul 2026A Portugal1-0
    02 Jul 2026H Austria3-0
    27 Jun 2026A Uruguay1-0
    21 Jun 2026H Saudi Arabia4-0
    15 Jun 2026H Cape Verde Islands0-0

    Belgium

    WWWDD
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 0L
    07 Jul 2026A USA4-1
    01 Jul 2026H Senegal3-2
    27 Jun 2026A New Zealand5-1
    21 Jun 2026H Iran0-0
    15 Jun 2026H Egypt1-1
    Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 62% · edge -11.3 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Spain Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.32
    Check odds @ 1.32
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Belgium531204
    1Spain732105
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 62% · edge -11.3 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 47%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 56%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Spain Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.32
    Check odds @ 1.32
    Spain to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Spain7.8
    Avg corners for
    Belgium4.6
    Spain9
    Avg total corners
    Belgium8.4
    Spain0.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Belgium0.8
    Spain18.6
    Avg shots
    Belgium21.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 47% vs implied 46% · edge +1.6 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 56%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 50%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Spain wins
    0Draws
    0Belgium wins
    Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 62% · edge -11.3 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Spain to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Spain8
    Played
    Belgium6
    Spain1.8
    Avg goals for
    Belgium2.3
    Spain0.1
    Avg goals against
    Belgium1.2
    Spain7
    Clean sheets
    Belgium1
    Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 62% · edge -11.3 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Spain Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.32
    Check odds @ 1.32
    Season data supports Spain to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Spain Over 2.5
    60%Belgium Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Spain sit at 40% and Belgium sit at 60%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Spain v Belgium prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Betting context

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