Football Stats Hub

Spain crestSpain
v
Belgium crestBelgium

World Cup | Fri 10 Jul, 20:00

Spain v Belgium Stats

Data last updated: Thu 09 Jul 2026, 03:50 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This World Cup quarter-final features Spain, the tournament's defensive powerhouse, facing Belgium, a team riding an 18-match unbeaten streak and known for their attacking prowess. Spain have not conceded a goal in over 10 hours of play, showcasing a disciplined, possession-based system under Luis de la Fuente. Belgium, recovering from a shaky start, have found attacking rhythm, notably with a 4-1 win over the USA. The tactical battle pits Spain's structured control against Belgium's dynamic, rotational attack, with both sides aiming for a semi-final spot. Selection depth and recent form add layers of intrigue to this high-stakes encounter.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Spain to Win

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 62%, above the 50% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Spain have kept six consecutive World Cup clean sheets, conceding only five shots on target all tournament.
  • Belgium are unbeaten in 18 matches and average over 2.5 goals per game in this World Cup.
  • Mikel Oyarzabal leads Spain with four goals and 23 goal involvements in his last 17 starts.
  • Belgium's Amadou Onana is out injured, weakening their midfield stability.
Price warning

Spain to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 62% while the model sits nearer 50% (-11.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Belgium Draw No Bet shows a +13 pts edge at 3.3.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

Spain's extraordinary defensive record, including six consecutive clean sheets and only five shots on target conceded, underpins their status as structural favourites. Their tactical discipline and control limit Belgium's attacking opportunities despite Belgium's strong scoring form and unbeaten run. The model recognizes Spain's defensive strength and knockout experience but notes the current are shorter than the model's chance, advising caution. Reduced staking or waiting for price improvement is recommended, as Belgium's attacking threat and injury to Spain's midfield depth could influence the outcome.

Defensive Solidity6 consecutive clean sheets, 5 shots on target conceded
Strong positive
Belgium AttackUnbeaten 18 matches, 2.5+ goals per game
Positive
Model Chance vs MarketModel chance 50.4%, market implied 61.7%
Negative
Knockout ExperienceSpain unbeaten in 6 knockout matches under current coach
Positive
Injury ImpactBelgium missing key midfielder Amadou Onana
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Spain's impeccable defensive form and tactical control make them the logical choice to win this quarter-final. Their ability to suppress opponents' chances combined with clinical finishing from key players like Oyarzabal provides a strong foundation. Belgium's recent resurgence adds excitement but Spain's consistency and knockout experience give them the edge in this tight contest.

Main risk

The main risk is that Belgium's attacking quality and late-game substitutes, like Lukaku, could break Spain's defensive rhythm, especially if Spain's midfield control falters due to Belgium's dynamic movement and set-piece threats.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and defensive strength

“Spain's defensive mastery and methodical approach have been unmatched this tournament, making them the team to beat. Their ability to control the game tempo and limit clear chances is a decisive factor against Belgium's attacking flair.”

Key Data Signals

Spain to Win evidence

Spain have kept six consecutive World Cup clean sheets, conceding only five shots on target all tournament.

Belgium are unbeaten in 18 matches and average over 2.5 goals per game in this World Cup.

Mikel Oyarzabal leads Spain with four goals and 23 goal involvements in his last 17 starts.

Belgium's Amadou Onana is out injured, weakening their midfield stability.

What To Watch In The Data

Spain to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Belgium have consistently contributed to high-scoring games, with a strong Over 2.5 Goals rate of 60%, while Spain's rate is lower at 40%.
  • The average goals in their recent fixtures suggest a potential for goals but tempered by Spain's defensive discipline, indicating a match that could see sporadic bursts of scoring rather than sustained open play.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Spain1.8
Avg goals scored
Belgium2.6
Spain0
Avg goals conceded
Belgium1
Spain0%
BTTS rate
Belgium80%
Spain40%
Over 2.5 goals
Belgium60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 50% · edge +4 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
3
Check odds @ 3
Despite Belgium's tournament average of over 2.5 goals per game and Spain's typically low-scoring matches, this clash is expected to be tight and methodical. Spain's defensive record points to limited clear chances, while Belgium's attacking explosiveness could create sporadic opportunities, making Over 2.5 Goals a plausible but secondary angle.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Spain

WWWWD
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 0L
06 Jul 2026A Portugal1-0
02 Jul 2026H Austria3-0
27 Jun 2026A Uruguay1-0
21 Jun 2026H Saudi Arabia4-0
15 Jun 2026H Cape Verde Islands0-0

Belgium

WWWDD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 0L
07 Jul 2026A USA4-1
01 Jul 2026H Senegal3-2
27 Jun 2026A New Zealand5-1
21 Jun 2026H Iran0-0
15 Jun 2026H Egypt1-1
Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 62% · edge -11.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Spain Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Spain's recent form is characterized by defensive resilience and controlled victories, accumulating 13 points with an average of 1.8 goals scored and zero conceded per game. Belgium, with 11 points, display a more attacking style, averaging 2.6 goals scored but conceding once per match, reflecting a more open but less stable defensive approach.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Belgium531204
1Spain732105
Both Spain and Belgium top their respective groups, reflecting strong tournament performances. However, standings offer limited insight for this knockout fixture, where tactical execution and moment-to-moment control will be decisive rather than group-stage points accumulation.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 62% · edge -11.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 47%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Spain Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
The current for Spain to Win at 1.62 imply a 61.7% chance, which is notably higher than the model's 50.4% probability. This discrepancy suggests the price is short and the selection is football-led rather than a pure value bet. Price drift or stronger late data on team news could improve the value proposition, but for now, caution and reduced stakes are advised.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Spain7.8
Avg corners for
Belgium4.6
Spain9
Avg total corners
Belgium8.4
Spain0.6
Avg yellow cards
Belgium0.8
Spain18.6
Avg shots
Belgium21.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 47% vs implied 46% · edge +1.6 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Spain average 7.8 corners per game, reflecting their territorial control and sustained pressure, while Belgium average fewer corners but generate more shots overall. Both teams maintain disciplined card profiles, with Spain averaging 0.6 yellows and Belgium 0.8, indicating a controlled but competitive match environment with moderate fouling and tactical fouls likely.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Spain wins
0Draws
0Belgium wins
Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 62% · edge -11.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
There is no recent head-to-head data available between Spain and Belgium to provide direct historical context. Therefore, tactical form, current tournament performance, and player availability carry greater weight in assessing this fixture's likely outcome.
Season team stats

World Cup

Spain5
Played
Belgium5
Spain1.8
Avg goals for
Belgium2.6
Spain0
Avg goals against
Belgium1
Spain5
Clean sheets
Belgium1
Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 62% · edge -11.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Spain Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Spain's season-long statistics highlight a formidable defense, conceding no goals in recent matches and maintaining a low shots-on-target against rate. Their attack is efficient but measured, focusing on quality over quantity. Belgium's stats reveal a high-scoring offense with a greater volume of shots and shots on target, balanced by a defense that concedes more frequently, indicating contrasting tactical priorities.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Spain Over 2.5
60%Belgium Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Belgium have consistently contributed to high-scoring games, with a strong Over 2.5 Goals rate of 60%, while Spain's rate is lower at 40%. The average goals in their recent fixtures suggest a potential for goals but tempered by Spain's defensive discipline, indicating a match that could see sporadic bursts of scoring rather than sustained open play.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Spain v Belgium prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

France v MoroccoWorld Cup · Thu 09 Jul 21:00

Competition and hubs

World Cup hubWorld Cup fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre